tour de france odds

[jdl22]

Anybody seen Tour de France odds?

[BlackAces]

None published yet.

[mikelow]

[Iceman]

[ QUOTE ]
None published yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Betfair has odds.

(as of 4/19:)
Armstrong 1.86
Ullrich 3.3
Beloki 11
Heras 15
Simoni 20
Vinokourov 22
Hamilton 25
Mayo 32
Virenque 36

[jdl22]

Other cycling fans here could probably give more info, but I think those betting should wait a bit before making the move. There are a lot of factors involved that will be key:

1. Does it appear Lance's body is still in good shape? Does he seem weaker now than in the past?
2. What kind of shape is Ullrich in? He is often a big swing guy. Last year he came in fine shape but a few years ago he came in overweight and out of shape.
3. How well is Beloki recovering from his injury? In the last TDF Beloki looked like giving Armstrong and Ullrich a solid run when he horribly crashed breaking his hip and I believe his elbow. You could hear him screaming on the tv, it was terrible.
4. How are the riders working within their teams? This is key for Heras and Beloki who have both changed teams. Particularly Beloki who is now on a French team (he's a Spaniard from the Basque country).

In this tour there will basically be 1 less time trial. Normally there are two flat individual time trials (ITT) as well as the prologue (a short individual time trial) and a team time trial (TTT). This year there is one flat ITT, one flat TTT, and a mountain ITT (on the Alpe D'Huez!!!). This will give climbers like Heras, Mayo, and Simoni a better chance over the powerful riders like Ullrich. I don't think the new format affects Armstrong much because he is strong in time trials and the mountains.

If I had to bet I would probably put my money on Armstrong, Heras, and perhaps Mayo. I would put Armstrong's chances of winning at about even money, and Mayo and Heras I would put a bit better than where they are due to the increased significance of the mountains and Heras' performance in the mountain ITT that won him the Vuelta last year. Again, though I would wait for more information on how these guys and more importantly their teams are doing.

Any other thoughts?

[dogsballs]

Bit late to this thread, but...

Herras is a great bet! Perhaps not favourite but still, imo, an absolutely great bet.

With a mountain TT like you say, he could take some serious time off the big guys there - if all goes well for him.

He's also of course a huge loss to US Postal, which will ,make it tough for lance to do the 6th. But I don't doubt that's everything he and US postal are focussed on, so Lance is still the favourite.

jmho
dogs