I thought I said I should bet these flops

[gonores]

Party 10/20 5 handed

BB is overtricky, UTG and CO are new.

UTG and CO both post $10 blinds and check to me. I raise on the button with 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. BB, UTG, and CO all call.

Flop comes A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

It's checked to me and I check with the intention of betting/raising any turn card.

I need help.

[Schneids]

Bet!

They all were blinds, they have two cards! Bet to win the pot now. Bet to drive out no pair hands! Give yourself the 6's and 9's remaining in the deck as outs too by minimizying the # of outs the field has collectively agaisnt you.

If the tricky BB c/r you, mrah, 3-bet it. That'll teach him to get out of line against you.

[ QUOTE ]
It's checked to me and I check with the intention of betting/raising any turn card.

I need help.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like it. Any pair they hit on the turn is probably going to stick around until the river and probably for a showdown, despite your attempt to make it look like a slowplayed flopped set... or what if worse case, it's a bet and a raise to you on the turn?

[BookOfIcculus]

yup what the Schneids said.

[gonores]

[ QUOTE ]
Any pair they hit on the turn is probably going to stick around until the river and probably for a showdown,

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not positive I buy this. perhaps if K-J falls, I'll have a hard time getting them to fold, but even then...one of two scenarios apply. Say he holds something like QJ and a Q turns....he wasn't folding to my flop bet anyways. If he holds something like K8 and a K comes, I'll bet he folds to my raise (maybe he check-calls instead...that thought didn't occur to me until now).

Here is what went through my head...If I bet the flop, I can be ~80-90% sure I will need to win a showdown to win this hand. I mean, I'm playing with two guys who just posted UTG and CO, respectively. Their thought processes aren't going to be that deep. Why not try to set them up to make them feel good about themselves by avoiding the slowplay trap I am obviously playing? Furthermore, I don't want BB c/ring me and cleaning out two players AND putting a big damper on my plans to win w/o a showdown.

I don't think trying to clean up the 6 & 9 outs is a great reason to bet the flop. My line was an attempt to knock out Ts and 5s...maybe even a weak ace. I decided with a decent draw I would do what I could to win w/o a showdown.

[Schneids]

You say:
[ QUOTE ]

I mean, I'm playing with two guys who just posted UTG and CO, respectively. Their thought processes aren't going to be that deep. Why not try to set them up to make them feel good about themselves by avoiding the slowplay trap I am obviously playing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Then you say:
[ QUOTE ]
My line was an attempt to knock out Ts and 5s...maybe even a weak ace. I decided with a decent draw I would do what I could to win w/o a showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess if we disagree from here, we disagree, but seriously: With the description in quote 1, how often of those types of players are going to accomodate to your plans in quote 2? Do you honestly believe a weak ace will fold if they bet and you raise? Or anyone holding a ten (or pair between K-T if the turn brings that)? I really don't think these type of players are laying down anything they caught on the flop and/or turn, once the flop gets checked around. And yes, I'm aware betting the flop and getting called does bloat the pot a little more.


Since I personally don't think they will, that is why you must bet the flop. A K8 that catches a king on the turn is sticking around for showdown, but he's folding on the flop, since "hey there's an ace out there, gonores reaised preflop, and there are 3 other players in on the hand yet Gonores bets the flop?.... he must have an ace." These players interpret your flop check as geniune weakness. They will call your turn raise out of curiosity.

Finally, here's another reason I bet and keep betting the whole way:
You've got two new players at the table. You raised 69d. You bet it the whole way, and missed. THEY ARE CALLING YOU DOWN EVERY TIME NOW. So, bet the flop to try to win the pot. Bet the turn to try to win the pot. Bet the river to try to win the pot. You either win a pot, or win a value bet for life against two apparent suckers. First impressions count.

EDIT:
To clarify my first post about cleaning up outs, I mean so that if say, one person calls you without a pair, and everyone else folds, it's more likely that if you catch a pair on the turn or river, your pair will hold up. I guess I shouldn't have said so much as "cleaning up outs" (since that implies you're betting to get J6 to fold and give you your 6's as outs).

[James282]

Your raise was really goofy. You need to fold this preflop in this situation. But for god's sake, when you raise preflop, bet the flop to take a free card on the turn if you need one.
-James

[stripsqueez]

good post - i reckon regular posters should post at least 1 silly hand a week - way bored with "should i value bet the river ?", or a pre-flop quiz

96s raising 2 limpers on the button is a fine silly hand - i think your first action on the flop should be to unclick the auto muck - next i would bet - i would guess 15% of the time they all fold - anybody with a hand is probably going to wait till the turn to raise that being standard operating procedure for most opponents so your odds of a free card are good

going for the double dodgy of pre-flop raise and flop slowplay illusion is huge - i really hope you won

of-course its all terribly -ev but poker isnt all about ev as much as someone will tell me i'm an idiot for that remark - ev is about efficently beating addicted gamblers

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[naphand]

I second the proposal. I think we definitley have a silly hand of the week, and I have a beauty lined up.

[gonores]

Dammit. I had a $10 bet with Schneids that no one would question my preflop raise. There isn't any chance you accidentally misread my post, is there? I mean, there is $35 in dead money in the pot to start, no one has shown any reason to think they have any sort of a hand, and I have the nut position. I told Schneids...96s is nowhere near the lower limit of my raising requirements preflop.

Given my history with the BB, betting the flop to take a free card on the turn would rarely work. He would throw some aggression in there some time.

[gonores]

[ QUOTE ]
96s raising 2 limpers on the button is a fine silly hand....
of-course its all terribly -ev

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not 2 limpers, it's two blind posters. I don't mean to turn this into a preflop thread, especially since we face a situation like this so irregularly, but I've got to think raising 69s after two posters is fine poker. I didn't even consider other alternatives.

2 blinds posters + no VPIP + nut position = minimum raising requirement for me, regardless of my hand.

[ QUOTE ]
i would guess 15% of the time they all fold

[/ QUOTE ]

I am definitely more willing to reconsider my flop/turn combo than my preflop play here. If they all fold 15% of the time on the flop, I'd guess I'd want them to all fold ~25-30% of the time on the turn to make the flop play at least semi-correct. Don't ask me about how I got 25-30%...there are a ton of variables that need to be factored in, such as whether or not it's a good thing to create the illusion of a slowplay if I hit my flush.

I very rarely show uncalled/losing hands (I can't think of more than 5 or so total since I started playing), but when I do, it is very spur of the moment. I hadn't decided yet whether or not to show if I won w/o showdown, but the thought was definitely there.

BTW, The blind poster UTG in this hand replaced you. If you waited one more orbit to see the new seat fillers in order to make a stay or leave decision, you would have never left.

I've got a feeling I'm going to go play Whistling Straits today. What a perfect day. Overcast. 45 degrees with 10-15mph wind gusts. I don't even have to take a caddy. I get to walk the course with my own bag on my own shoulder. An oh yeah, I forgot...the course opens to the public tomorrow, so it's gonna be empty and divot-free. $222 (plus caddy fees of ~$50-75) is easily one of the best golf bargains in the state. Anyone jealous?

EDIT: No, this last paragraph was not written sarcastically. Playing Whistling Straits on a day like today is an amazing experience.

[stripsqueez]

[ QUOTE ]
but I've got to think raising 69s after two posters is fine poker

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont have an issue but i'm allowed to call it dodgy

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]
Dammit. I had a $10 bet with Schneids that no one would question my preflop raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ship it. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[ QUOTE ]
I told Schneids...96s is nowhere near the lower limit of my raising requirements preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW I am fine with this PF raise, considering I have raised as far down as 54s before. In the case of your hand, I'd love it being heads up with $63 in the pot already.

[James282]

If you think three people in these games are folding their blinds you are nuts. Read about the hand that Mason posted a while back when he had J9s in the CO and didn't try to steal raise the SB and two BBs that were posting ahead of the button. These players are unknown, and when people will quite frequently call you down with as little as ace high I can't imagine that raising 3 posters with 96s is even close to +EV.
-James

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
but I've got to think raising 69s after two posters is fine poker. I didn't even consider other alternatives.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's pretty bad poker and it's an easy auto-muck for me in this game. Great, you have position. You have 69. You think posters in this game are gonna fold pre-flop or if they catch any piece of the board? Unlikely.

[gonores]

If I remember correctly, MM's situation was different from mine in a big way. None of his 3 blinds had acted yet.

[gonores]

My flush card, the 4d, came on the turn. BB bet out, got called by CO, I raised, BB called, CO folded. River was an 8, I bet and got called by A9. No comments were made after the hand.

The hand put me up $400 at the table, and coincidentally, I proceeded to have my best single-table session ever, going +$1500. I'd like to think the hand had a little bit to do with it.

However, I'm logging it at $1490 thanks to my side bet with Schneids. Unreal. I guess I'll have to at least think about my preflop raise, now that I took criticism by a few regulars.

[jerrybai125]

[ QUOTE ]
I mean, there is $35 in dead money in the pot to start, no one has shown any reason to think they have any sort of a hand, and I have the nut position

[/ QUOTE ]

Also remember that two people have posted in the middle of the table in a 6 max table, you could even have been playing 5 handed at the time. You really think people who post in the middle of the table and not waiting for their big blind are going to fold for one more bet to see 3 cards??? Especially UTG i think will call for 1 more bet with literally anything.

People who post their big blind like UTG to me are very loose gamblers.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
My flush card, the 4d, came on the turn. BB bet out, got called by CO, I raised, BB called, CO folded. River was an 8, I bet and got called by A9. No comments were made after the hand.

The hand put me up $400 at the table, and coincidentally, I proceeded to have my best single-table session ever, going +$1500. I'd like to think the hand had a little bit to do with it.

However, I'm logging it at $1490 thanks to my side bet with Schneids. Unreal. I guess I'll have to at least think about my preflop raise, now that I took criticism by a few regulars.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that if you turn a lot of flushes then you're going to have a pretty good session.

[James282]

Hey gonores, you're right, the situation was much different. He had an actual playable hand(J9s) and he wasn't playing against people that were loose enough to post under the gun. Generally speaking, players who post UTG are probably going to be loose enough to call you down the entire way with any piece. If the BB and other poster are "typical" for this game, you can expect one of them to make it to the river about 60-75% of the time ESPECIALLY if it is heads up by the turn. I would expect that 1 or 0 of these opponents fold almost every time.
-James

[James282]

I hope you see why the raise might not have been the best considering you won simply by beating A9 with your 69. Doesn't look like you would have outplayed that opponent in this spot.
-James

[gonores]

Wow, I really pushed a button here.

I submit to the record that MM had J9o, not J9s. Not that it matters, but I bet they aren't much more than 1 hand grouping away from each other, though that isn't worth anyone's time to verify.

If I can win 25-40% of hands w/o showdown, then doesn't that make my raise correct, especially considering I can occassionally win a showdown? FWIW, I think your 60-75% number is a little optimistic...I replied to Schneids that once I saw the flop, my guess was 80-90% showdown if I get the flop.

I thought about it more last night (before I woke up at 2am in blinding agony...leading me to emergency oral surgery this morning). You obviously, as always, make good points. However, I still like the raise. Here's my reasoning:

After two limpers, 69s is borderline...I'd usually limp against bad players.
Posters, in general, are bad players
There are two posters.
Posters that check show more weakness than limpers.

This line of reasoning leads me to eliminate folding as a decision.

Open-limping after two posters is a crime against humanity. Inherently.

This new assumption leads me to eliminate limping as a decision. I had to raise.

[gonores]

I try not to attempt to learn too much based on the outcome of a single hand. As I said before, you make valid points, but telling me not to raise here because BB had me dominated doesn't seem like a strong argument, because I doubt anyone would question raising A7s in this spot, yet I'd be dominated there too.

Also, I have no comeback to that. Since my plan was to make better hands fold, if I succeeded with my plan and DID outplay them, I wouldn't know for sure whether or not they folded hands they shouldn't have.

I hope you don't think I'm ragging on you or singling you out. I just like to tease these issues out when I can't arrive at a conclusion, and you seem to be the one who will work with me best on this.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Open-limping after two posters is a crime against humanity. Inherently.

[/ QUOTE ]

What makes you say that?

[James282]

Hey dude, I still disagree with your raise, and I would virtually never limp with it behind 2 limpers, but I don't feel singled out at all. I like discussing things like this. My point in pointing out that you were dominated was only to show another reason why playing such cheese is not the best idea(you will sometimes be dominated, and virtually never dominate - you can never know if a 1 pair hand will be good). You were basically hoping to win without a showdown or to win with a flush or a 2 gapper straight(highly unlikely since you need both a 7 and an 8, but you knew that). If you think that you are going to showdown 80%-90% once you see a flop, then I am curious to see what you think the % is that you will be seeing a flop after raising too overly loose players(anyone who limps UTG will call a raise after posting, IMO, unless it was an accident). I think that your chances of getting the sb, bb, and both posters to fold preflop are next to none, but you clearly disagree. I wonder if it is possible to get any data on how often people who post fold to a raise. Perhaps we should start keeping track and we could really make some points about the validity of this raise as opposed to simply speculating about it. I'd be interested to hear from more people about how often you think you'll
A) win it preflop
B) get it heads up
C) get it against 2 people
D) get against 2 or more

I suggest the percentages are about
A) 5%(I feel like this is very very generous, it's probably closer to 1%)
B) 15%
C) 50%
D) 30%

So if you get it preflop or heads up 25% of the time, you pay 2 SB to win 3-4 SB 25% of the time. It's tough to say how often you are going to bet it down to the river and lose vs. bet it down to the river and win without a showdown, but assuming that if opponent calls preflop he likely has a hand that is better than 96s, you will likely lose most hands that go past the flop.

So the question is, is it worth it to risk 2 SBs to win 4 20% of the time, but get in with what is likely the worst of it against multiple opponents about 80% of the time? Feel free to debate the numbers or the reasoning!
-James

[James282]

P.S. - if it seems like I'm getting worked up about it, I'm really not, I'm mostly interested to see if I should be raising in similar spots...since I would never have considered this play. Also, hope your mouth or whatever is feeling better, emergency oral surgery? Yikes.
-James