River value bet? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

NLSoldier

04-16-2004, 01:57 AM

Im questiong this river bet. Opponent is a LAG but not a maniac.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, MP folds, Button folds, SB (LAG) raises, Hero 3-bets, SB (LAG) calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players) 
LAG checks, Hero bets, LAG calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players) 
LAG checks, Hero bets, LAG calls.

River: (6 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players) 
LAG checks, Hero bets, LAG calls.

Final Pot: 8 BB
Main Pot: 8 BB, between LAG and Hero. > Pot won by LAG (8 BB).

Results in white below: 
LAG shows 3d Qd (one pair, queens).
Hero shows 9d 9c (one pair, nines).
Outcome: LAG wins 8 BB. 

I guess he never really gave me a reason to think i was beat, especially since he is normally aggressive, but i just had a feeling he had a queen and was worried i had a K or better Q.

stripsqueez

04-16-2004, 07:02 AM

i bet - i'm not going to look at the results - i suppose he had a queen...

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

Your Mom

04-16-2004, 02:33 PM

I check the river. He's not folding anything better and he won't call if he missed a flush draw.

Schneids

04-16-2004, 02:43 PM

You'd be surprised how often a LAG will call a river bet here with ace high or some mega-crap pair.

In my experiences when you are able to silence a LAG with a three-bet and able to get them to check/call the whole way, they usually have crap (or in extremely rare cases are slowplaying a monster).

I'd bet and have no regrets.

Packerfan1

04-16-2004, 04:19 PM

I'd check figuring I lose to a Q (or a weak K, but it smells like a Q) more than 45% of the time. (See I remember HEPFAP!)

Pack

Nate tha' Great

04-16-2004, 04:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Im questiong this river bet. Opponent is a LAG but not a maniac.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, MP folds, Button folds, SB (LAG) raises, Hero 3-bets, SB (LAG) calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players) 
LAG checks, Hero bets, LAG calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players) 
LAG checks, Hero bets, LAG calls.

River: (6 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players) 
LAG checks, Hero bets, LAG calls.

Final Pot: 8 BB
Main Pot: 8 BB, between LAG and Hero. > Pot won by LAG (8 BB).

Results in white below: 
LAG shows 3d Qd (one pair, queens).
Hero shows 9d 9c (one pair, nines).
Outcome: LAG wins 8 BB. 

I guess he never really gave me a reason to think i was beat, especially since he is normally aggressive, but i just had a feeling he had a queen and was worried i had a K or better Q.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd check the river. It's also worth considering that the flop contained a couple of good draws, which reduces the number of hands that he'd call with that you beat.

...

Look at it from your opponent's perspective. If he had a strong hand such as top pair, you'd think he'd want to try and play it more aggressively to extract a bit of additional value out. If he had a very weak hand, he he'd likely fold or make a strong move on the flop in the hopes that you'd missed the board.

With second pair, though, especially with only one potential overpair to the board, he's close to being in a way-ahead-or-way-behind spot, and that's one of the good times to check-and-call. I think he'd also play bottom pair that way, but he'll probably be raising in that spot with more hands that contain a Q than contain an 8. So I think that the bet is slightly -EV.