Inducing a bluff and living dangerously on the river

[sfer]

After he checks to me on the turn I'm pretty confident he has a big pair. I thought he would likely fold to a bet so I checked through. Opinions on the river raise? I like it less and less the more I think about it.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, <font color="CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (4.75 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls.

Final Pot: 8.75 BB

Results in white below: <font color="white">
BB shows Kd Ks (two pair, aces and kings).
Hero shows Jc Ac (three of a kind, aces).
Outcome: Hero wins 8.75 BB. </font>

[sfer]

[sthief09]

You would've made just as much by betting the turn and river. The only situation where you make more doing this is if he has something like KQ and will bluff at the river. I think a more straight-forward approach (raising the flop) would probably be better here, considering if he has AK or AQ, you'll lose less, and if he has a PP you'll make just as much.

Looking at the results, you would've made more raising the flop, then betting the turn and river

[Ed Miller]

Opinions on the river raise? I like it less and less the more I think about it.

What's not to like?

[CrackerZack]

i don't like raising this flop. You're either way ahead, or way behind in a heads up flop with position. Keep letting him flail away and if he stops flailing, you bet. You win the same here either way. Against non-idiots, your line costs you a bet as he should fold to the river raise.

[CrackerZack]

What's not to like is that the bet on the turn looks like one of those "hey, he checked, i'll bet and pick up this pot" bets, and will be called very frequently on both streets where as the river raise will be called MUCH less frequently.

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought he would likely fold to a bet so I checked through.

[/ QUOTE ]

This line bothers me and I don't like the check unless you have a read on him. 99.9% of Party 2/4 players would not fold a big pair here. Whatsmore a decent sized percentage of players would check the river as well, being too timid to bet. Checking costs you bet too often and doesn't gain unless he actually would fold a big pair.

[Ulysses]

The river raise is good. But just bet the turn. If he has a big pair, he's even more likely to call now that another Ace has shown up.

[Trix]

Or he is beeing tricky, trying to check-raise you on the turn.
I raise the river against someone who will call down with a pocket pair or 3bet bluff.
AK,AQ aren´t that likely as you can see 3 of the Aces.

[AceHigh]

I like this play if you are doing it as a change up. My experience is Pary players don't like to fold on the river, even some of the better ones so this raise is going to be called very often.

[sfer]

This is pretty much exactly why I started disliking my play upon further reflection.

[sfer]

Thanks Zack. I was thinking along the same lines when I went over the hand. I'm still on the fence but leaning more toward just betting the turn.

[Ed Miller]

What's not to like is that the bet on the turn looks like one of those "hey, he checked, i'll bet and pick up this pot" bets, and will be called very frequently on both streets where as the river raise will be called MUCH less frequently.

He said, "Opinions on the river raise? I like it less and less the more I think about it." I said, "What's not to like?"

I meant, "Given that you played the hand this way so far, why wouldn't you raise the river?"