TT vs. the 3-better

[StellarWind]

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)
About 40% preflop/Somewhat aggressive. BB recently sat down and hasn't done anything noteworthy. Button seems to be fairly tight/aggressive in general but has shown down a couple of junky limpers.

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 folds, CO folds, <font color="CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, SB folds, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Button raises</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (8.75 BB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, ...

[StellarWind]

[MortalNuts]

hey SW --

I don't have a really strong opinion about this or anything, but since no one else is responding:

I would often check-fold the turn here.

Even people who limp or raise light usually have (too) high standards for 3-betting; if he's actually a good tight-agg player, sure his 3-betting standards aren't necessarily that high in general, but on the flip side he's likely to have noticed you're a good player, so he's going to have a better hand than usual to come in with the 3-bet.

Anyway, on the flop I think a bet is fine. I think calling a raise is fine, too, since in his position he might well raise overcards to drive out BB, or if he holds two high hearts. When he follows it up with a bet on the turn when a card in the playing zone comes, though, I'd tend to think either of those possibilities are less likely, and give up the ghost. Sure, he might play AK this way, but he'd also play AA/KK/QQ/AQ like this, and you have nowhere near the odds to draw out on any of those.

The way you played the flop and turn, though, I like the bet on the end if you think it has any chance of folding a better hand. (If it doesn't, it seems a little odd, since I don't think many worse hands would call, and some better hands wouldn't have made you pay to see showdown with that board.) I presume you'd fold to a raise?

oh, ps: there will be a game of some sort at the AAS this June. interested?

cheers,

mn

[StellarWind]

I didn't really sense that he was a good player, just a pretty aggressive one that didn't play very many hands. Like I said he'd shown me a couple of strange things, including an LP limp with 87o in a small field.

I've never tried the river play before. I knew I wanted a showdown so I didn't think I was risking much with the scare card protecting me. I felt he would value bet most of the hands that beat me.

My hope was that the bet would create a problem for him. I don't really know whether I want him to fold or call and he might not know either. I could see winning an extra bet against 99 or AK (playing me for overcards) or stealing a pot when JJ or even better panicked.

[ QUOTE ]
I presume you'd fold to a raise?

[/ QUOTE ]
That would have been a good idea /images/graemlins/blush.gif.

But then I couldn't tell you that he showed A /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif for the rivered nut flush.

[Trix]

Will he bet AK on the turn ?

What worse hands do you expect him to call with on the river ?
What better hands will he fold ?

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Will he bet AK on the turn ?

[/ QUOTE ]
Probably, he seems aggressive.

[ QUOTE ]
What worse hands do you expect him to call with on the river ?
What better hands will he fold ?

[/ QUOTE ]
My feeling is there is a range of hands from AK to JJ where his action cannot be predicted and could easily be wrong. I would expect him to do the right thing if he is better or worse.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't really sense that he was a good player, just a pretty aggressive one that didn't play very many hands. Like I said he'd shown me a couple of strange things, including an LP limp with 87o in a small field.

[/ QUOTE ]

seems to be a theme in many posts lately. What does limping in with 87o have anything to do with his preflop 3 bet standards? Or his aggressiveness, for that matter.

[ QUOTE ]
or stealing a pot when JJ or even better panicked.


[/ QUOTE ]

There is virtually no way JJ or better is going to fold here. Would you?

b

[Trix]

[ QUOTE ]
I would expect him to do the right thing if he is better or worse.

[/ QUOTE ]
In that case there isn´t any value to the river bet.

What would a check do ?
Would he bet AK if checked to ?

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
seems to be a theme in many posts lately. What does limping in with 87o have anything to do with his preflop 3 bet standards? Or his aggressiveness, for that matter.

[/ QUOTE ]
Nothing at all. I had characterized him in the original post as "fairly tight/aggressive". I just wanted to clarify for another poster that I didn't mean to say I thought he was a good player.

I think it is a mistake in this case for me to believe that I know exactly what he could have or what he might do next. It's all guesswork.

On reflection I agree with Bernie that it is unlikely that a better hand will fold. But my opponents continue to surprise me.

Random thought: Are thinking players biased by the fact that we never see our opponent's idiotic folds? Do we underestimate this aspect of their bad play?

Not that it actually matters what I would do in his position, but I think AK is the borderline case for calling the river and AQ is definitely worth betting the river. That would suggest it rarely matters whether I bet or check-call and that when it matters it's a pretty close decision.

Thanks everyone!

[bernie]

If a player is a loose 3 bettor, generally, they will be raising very often preflop. Even if it's only 1 raise. 3bets and caps are usually much tighter raises. Him raising that often would have been notable to you.

[ QUOTE ]
Are thinking players biased by the fact that we never see our opponent's idiotic folds? Do we underestimate this aspect of their bad play?


[/ QUOTE ]

We see their hands. Right after they suck out on us or someone else. We also see them seeing alot of flops. Are they getting that many decent limp/starters? There are plenty of hands where they are giving you info on what/how they play. Not just with hands that you're involved in.

As far as guesswork, many players tend to fit in the same mold. Which is a good starting point for profiling a player. Then adjust your read/profile as needed. Maniacal, conservative, ABC, etc...

Based on your small description of this guy, i think i read him decently. There's a reason for that. I think you had enough info about him to narrow his range down some. Not exact, but close enough.

And sometimes they will suprise you and you'll be way off on the read. But that shouldnt happen too often. If it is, you're not paying enough attention.

b