Fold this flop?

[BugsBunny]

A discussion going on somewhere else. I just want to know if I'm nuts or if they are. I'm not saying which side I'm on yet. So the question is should he fold on this flop for 2 bets when it gets back to him?

Secondary questions. Assuming he calls the flop (as he did) 1) Should he have raised. 2) Should he have folded to the c/r?.

Also, anyone want to guess MP1's hand?

Party 3/6
Hero has A /images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif and is BB
MP2 is a poster

Aggressive EP2 raises. Loose EP3 calls. Loose MP1 calls. MP2, the new player, 3-bets. Tight Button calls. Hmm, looks like I'll be playing AA in a big pot. Chances to be outdrawn are high. I raise, forcing three people to call two bets and hoping some of them will drop out. Everyone calls. Damn.

Flop (6 players 24.3 SB): Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Flop isn't great. I'm afraid of two pair or set, plus there's the flush draw.
I bet. EP2 calls. EP3 calls. MP1 raises, and MP2 reraises. Button folds. I'm thinking there's a good possibility I'm beat, but I may still be ahead. Capping won't give me any info, so I check to see if MP1 caps it. EP2 folds. EP3 calls. MP1 caps. MP2 calls. Well, looks like MP1 has at least two pair, giving me about 2 outs. The pot is huge though, so I call.

Turn (4 players 20.6 BB): 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
My plan is to check and fold to MP1's bet. I check, EP3 checks, MP1 checks. What? MP2 bets. Ok, there has been no proof that MP2 has me beat. He could quite easily have a pair, but may be beating me with QQ. Well, MP1 is a loose player, so who knows what he was thinking. Surely if he had something he would've bet. So now I'll try to make the other two guys fold. I raise. EP3 calls. MP1 reraises. MP2 calls. Gosh darn it MP2, why did you have to bet!! The pot is over 30 big bets now, so I call. EP3 calls.

River (4 players 32.6 BB): 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
I check. EP3 checks. MP1 bets. MP2 folds (Bastard!). Well, I think there's a better than 33 to 1 chance that MP1 is smoking crack, so I call. EP3 folds.

[Louie Landale]

4-betting PF after everyone has already put in 2 bets "to get them to fold" is not going to happen. 4-betting announces your hand to clearly. I'd call, hehehe, figuring (correctly) to gain ground after the flop; possibly getting a flop AND a turn raise in with your disguised hand. And, of course, someone is very likely to cap it for you, then you get the money in AND have a disguised hand.

Once the pot gets big you should routinely go to the river and pay it off. Planning to fold the turn getting 20:1 is out of the question: you need 22:1 to snag your Ace even if you SEE trip Qs, and you will easily make that up with a check-raise on the river; not to mention you may have the best hand right now.

Raising the turn to try to get folks to fold is silly in this huge pot: KJ is NOT going to fold now. You really need to consider how likely you are to have the best hand. Raising the LP poster looks reasonable from my perspective.

You've got to have a GREAT read on the player before you can fold big hands in big pots.

- Louie

[deacsoft]

I agree with Louie's points.

[LetsRock]

I'm guessing the AA lost (because it was posted), but I can't see that it was an automatic fold. That flop fits a lot of great drawing hands.

It sure feels like you're up against a set (probably QQ based on the turn c/r) from MP1, but it could easily be as tame as an overplayed AQ from a loose player (of course, I have a bad feeling you're going tell me he had a granny mae). Looks like the other active players were on big flush/straight draws and didn't hit. I'm thinking that your "outs" are either tainted or in the other guys hands so on this hand, I'd just be hoping for blanks to hit the board.

I just can't see a place that I would feel absolutely sure I was beat (but I sure wouldn't be surprised to not win), so I'm gonna see what all the fuss is about.

For the record, I don't agree with Louie's comments about your play. I think your PF cap should help you with this hand. You announced strength and they still kept coming after you. This lets you know that you could be in trouble and to back off and call it down instead of really pouring on the juice. I agree that your turn-raise is not likely to get anybody out at this time and you're not going to be able ruin any 8/9 outer draws by raising, but you probably would have hated yourself if you didn't try to thin the field, so I don't have an issue with it.

River is an easy call, pot is just too big to muck an over pair at this point.

(I sure hope you're not gonna tell me this hand was lost on the river - that would be really sick!)

[MaxPower]

For whoever is suggesting you fold the flop, I'd really like to know what their reasoning is?

[BugsBunny]

Still not saying which side of the argument I'm on.

What about the possibilty that the Ah gives someone the nut flush? Isn't it possible that you actually only have 1 out (and possibly no outs if someone has KT) when going to the river?

With all the action on the flop, as it went down, what types of hands do you put people on?

If we assume (and is it a workable assumption) that one person is on a flush/str8 draw, and one person has 2 pair or a set is this hand still playable past the flop?

Again, as things actually went down, what do you put the player on who c/r the turn?

-bugs

[sthief09]

If the turn comes a 5 and if the river comes a black 5 or 7, then I think you'll be good most of the time. I like your turn raise. Pretty much I like how you played the whole hand. It sucks but this is the epitomy of variance. One of those hands that you won't win much and will burn a lot of chips, but one that you just can't avoid.

If you had red aces there wouldn't even be a question here.

[BugsBunny]

Just for the record - trust me, it's not my play /images/graemlins/smile.gif I would probably play this closer to what Louie suggested, although there was a time I would have automatically capped preflop. But if I did cap preflop my reasoning wouldn't have been to get players to fold. It would have been to get more money in the pot where I have best hand at the moment, and I wouldn't be complaing about them calling.

Of course I may also cap with a few other hands here. Like pp of 99 (maybe even 88) or better and AKs (maybe even other Axs). With pots like this and this many players I'll mix up what I do sometimes capping with lesser hands and just calling with things like AA, and sometimes doing it "by the book" so to speak.

[Joe826]

MP1's play seems quite odd to me. He caps the flop but checks the turn for a check-raise? It seems like if he really had a big hand he wouldn't take the chance of it being checked through, unless he was just getting greedy. The C/R tells me he either just misplayed his set/two pair or he was on a draw and hoped for it to be checked through, but decided to make a power-move to further disguise his hand. I don't see how the 7 could have helped him. Anyways that's definetly an interesting hand, I'm probably way off but it's good to think about.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
Again, as things actually went down, what do you put the player on who c/r the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I know this question isn't directed at me, but I'll answer anyway. I don't think a typical player has the balls to check-3-bet the turn with QJ, so I put him on 55.

[BugsBunny]

Just out of curiosity why not QQ or JJ (just want to see if your thinking matched mine when I was breaking down the hand)?

[BugsBunny]

After you bet, you got plenty of information given to you. As you say, you are worried about sets, two pair, flush draws, and straight draws. Optimistically, you have 2 outs. I would discount this to maybe 1 - do you really want to see the Ah fall? There is also the chance that you hit your miracle out, then lose to a redraw, or it gives someone with the JT a straight. I think this balances out the very slim chance that your hand could win unimproved. In other words: You are very likely drawing dead. If you are lucky, you have 1 clean out, the Ad.


and


Let's say you win this pot 11% of the time. Since you have no clean outs, let's assume that you aren't drawing, but praying that your hand is the best right now and will hold up.

On the flop, you're getting 11 to 1 odds to call a reraise and a cap. Let's simplify the situation: say there's $11 in the pot, and it costs you $1 to call. Since there is a 1 in 11 chance that your hand is best, you call.

Now it's the turn, and you have to pay 3 big bets. That makes $35 in the pot (4 players, $11 + 4*$6), costing you $6 to call. You're getting 6:1, so calling would be a big mistake.

In other words, just because you have an 11% chance of winning the pot on the flop, it doesn't make it correct to call to the river - because your odds will be killed in future betting rounds. In this situation, hero had to pay (after his flop bet) 5.5 more big bets for a chance at winning a pot 34 big bets large. Obviously, he needed a better than 11% chance of winning.


and

when you're playing against 6 people, and the betting indicates you are beaten, you win these about zero percent of the time unless you hit the miracle card for the set of Aces. With the betting patterns and the raise and re-raise on the flop, I put heros chance of winning the hand at about 2%, hitting the Ad. With that many people in the pot, someone is on a flush draw, so the Ah is counterfeitted.

1 out. Odds against improving: 46:1 on each card.

No pot I've ever seen has given those type of odds.

[sthief09]

well he didn't raise pre-flop. QQ is a hand that everyone raises. some clueless people limp with AA or KK to get action, but I think everyone raises QQ. some people think they lose too often with JJ to raise, so they will limp, so I guess that's reasonable. but the check-3bet on the turn represents a monster.

[southerndog]

Fools like me have limped pre-flop with QQ. Very regrettably so.

[MaxPower]

So you think an optimistic assement on the flop is that you have 1 out? I'd hate to see you when you are being pessimistic.

You can always create some kind of scenario where you are drawing incredibly slim, but I don't think you should be doing that when the pot is this big. I'm not saying you should automatically go to the river, but its premature to fold on the flop and assume all your outs are dead.

I'm not sure of the best way to play this hand, but I think folding on the flop is no good. The only hand that you are drawing slim against is a set and there are plenty of other hands that could be out there given the action we are seeing. I don't think you should be jumping for joy on the flop here, but assuming you have 1 out is not optimistic.

[The Bear]

[ QUOTE ]
4-betting PF after everyone has already put in 2 bets "to get them to fold" is not going to happen. 4-betting announces your hand to clearly. I'd call, hehehe, figuring (correctly) to gain ground after the flop; possibly getting a flop AND a turn raise in with your disguised hand. And, of course, someone is very likely to cap it for you, then you get the money in AND have a disguised hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

The last line of that paragraph is the only semi-reasonable argument you made for not capping preflop. I would have to be positive that someone else would do the capping to make this move. And even then, I would probably cap it myself. In these large, multi-way, capped pots, players rarely remember who put in the 1st, 2nd or 3rd raises anyway. I think your recommendation to call is terrible for low-limit players. Getting in to these "tricky" habits is a dangerous and costly practice.

[southerndog]

I think on the flop, crazy betting can sometimes mean decent hands, but not GREAT hands. Usually if people have great hands, they will slow down and wait for a raise on the turn, right? Anyway, are you gonna post the results?

[afs]

[ QUOTE ]
well he didn't raise pre-flop. QQ is a hand that everyone raises. some clueless people limp with AA or KK to get action, but I think everyone raises QQ. some people think they lose too often with JJ to raise, so they will limp, so I guess that's reasonable. but the check-3bet on the turn represents a monster.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought that too, until I saw QQ limped twice w/in ONE rotation at the casino last weekend.

... though yr reasoning looks sound.

[Louie Landale]

This is not the same situation where its 3 bets to you and there are still players with only 1 bet in. Then you can raise to make dead money out of their 1-bet call.

Yup, this is about as "tricky" as I get. But I think its important NOT to define your hand so narrowly early. On the flop when you raise you can still have a wider variety of hands.

So I believe the real question is "will they put me on AA or KK and play accordingly?" If the answer is "yes" then don't cap. You suggest that it doesn't matter in the lowest game (since they don't remember, don't know what it means, and don't adjust anyway) and that's a good argument.

In the higher games, especially the aggressive ones, it matters a GREAT DEAL since you WANT to get in a couple three raises in later when it matters more.

- Louie

[Vee Quiva]

I haven't read the results or other response yet so I will be unbiased.

Hmmm 4 players besides yourself betting and calling multiple bets on the flop. I would have no trouble laying this one down. Nobody on this board seems to get the fact that most of the time you need to respect the raises of your opposition. Not everyone in this world is a loose aggressive moron. Get out and live to fight another day.

[BugsBunny]

MP1 showed a pair of 5's for the flopped set. I'll have some comments a little later.