AK vs tight aggressive

[bakku]

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed)
MP3 is a tight aggressive thinking player

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, <font color="CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, CO folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, SB folds, BB folds, MP3 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
MP3 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP3 caps</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
MP3 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls.

River: (9.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
MP3 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 9.75 BB
<font color="#990066">Main Pot: 9.75 BB, between MP3 and Hero.</font>

How was the river check?

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
How was the river check?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good, IMO. I would have played the same and would have been happy with a split pot at the end. Hopefully you didn't lose to two pair or better.

[cold_cash]

I think I would bet the river after he check-called the turn.

I'm having a hard time putting him on a hand after his flop cap/call down.

I think you're ahead though.

[ZootMurph]

I think he is on AK or AQ, thinking he is up against a set. Also, because he didn't reraise the flop, he could have a pair of Kings. If he flopped a set and was TAG, he would have bet or check raised the blank turn.

I would have bet the river as well here... doubt he would cap with an inside Broadway draw. He MAY have had AJ, but I doubt it because I'd find it hard to cap the flop with it after our Hero 3-bet. You were definitely winning (or up against another AK) after the turn, guessing from his check/call. If he hit on the river, so be it... but the Jack doesn't scare me here.

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he is on AK or AQ, thinking he is up against a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was my thought as well. Or he may have A-K thinking he is up against two pair.

[ QUOTE ]
I would have bet the river as well here... doubt he would cap with an inside Broadway draw. He MAY have had AJ, but I doubt it because I'd find it hard to cap the flop with it after our Hero 3-bet. You were definitely winning (or up against another AK) after the turn, guessing from his check/call. If he hit on the river, so be it... but the Jack doesn't scare me here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't this in complete contradiction with you're first statement that he probably has A-K or A-Q? If he had a set he would have probably continued the aggression. But the fact that he stayed in to see the turn and is supposedly a solid player tells me that A-J is the absolutely worst hand he has. I think A-K is likely but a bet on the river, IMO, is -EV given the possibilities. No way he folds A-K for one more bet and I can't see him calling with anything else that doesn't have you're A-K beat.

[bakku]

[ QUOTE ]
No way he folds A-K for one more bet and I can't see him calling with anything else that doesn't have you're A-K beat.


[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly what I was thinking

[ZootMurph]

LOL... I said "he MAY have AJ, but I doubt it". So I was considering the final possibilities. Anyway, I wouldn't put him on AJ just because I can't see anyone playing AJ like he did.

I still believe he is on AK because of the weak play after. Thinking he is up against AQ or a set. The river bet has a small chance to knock him out... enough to go ahead and make the bet.

Sorry if my post was confusing... I type thoughts as they are passing through my head while going along with the hand. And I would consider AJ as a possible hand before betting the river as well as AT (inside Broadway draw). But, like I said... after making those considerations, they are VERY unlikely, so I stick with my initial assessment of AK or AQ, and bet the river. I always reconsider my hand reads at every street, to make sure I have made the best possible read given the situation.

[chief444]

ZootMurph...I think you are reading this hand correctly. I agree AJ and A10 are very unlikely and that he has either AK or AQ. But I still don't understand making the river bet with your read. He called one bet on the turn. If he is a solid player he certainly didn't call the turn just to fold the river if he doesn't catch one of three outs (that may not be any good anyway).

[DoctorDrew]

Wait, he did reraise the flop. He capped. Why after capping does he go into check-call mode with a blank on the turn? I know we are talking about hero's play, but what's MP3 saying when he reraises the flop and then just goes into call down mode? Did he wake up after the reraise and reasses Hero's possible cards, realizing Hero probably had AK or QQ or AA?

[Peter Harris]

i'd agree after his check-call on the turn, i would bet the river no less than 100% of the time. If he had AJ and caught a rivered 2-pair then bad luck, you lose 2 bets. But all other times the pot is yours.

Comments?
Pete Harris

[Rico Suave]

Hey chief:

[ QUOTE ]
I agree AJ and A10 are very unlikely and that he has either AK or AQ

[/ QUOTE ]


IMHO, I think that AJ or AT more likely than AK or AQ.

What is odd is that MP3 caps the flop and then check calls the turn when a complete blank hits. I am not sure what kind of hand he would do that with, unless he all of the sudden is scared that his kicker is no good, or he realized he way overplayed the flop with something like KQ. I cannot imagine that AQ would check call here---he has got to bet or c/r. And surely a TAP would bet the turn HU with AK.

So, that being said, I still probably check behind on the river. Having to call a raise here would suck.

--Rico

[chief444]

You may be right Rico. But I wouldn't think a "tight/aggressive thinking player" as the opponent was described would cap that flop with A-10 (or A-J for that matter) when the Hero has shown such strength. That type of player should realize when the hero 3-bet that his kicker is no good. But I'm glad to see you agree on checking the river.

I think that the hero either split the pot, lost the hand, or gave an incorrect read of the opponents playing ability. IMO only one of the three can be the case.

[MortalNuts]

The "cap the flop, check-call the turn" play from someone who's supposedly a thinking, tight-agg player smells funny. Maybe on the turn he's getting tricksy with like QQ or even 77, and is currently hopping around his living room in glee because he thinks you have AQ and will call a river checkraise if he check-calls the turn. Maybe he realizes he's overplayed AJ or AT. Or maybe he has AQ and has had a sudden change of heart, and puts you on QQ or AA. Pretty much the best case scenario for you is that he has something like KQ, capped the flop in hopes that you would check through the turn fearing a c-r, and then made a bad turn call when you bet. I don't think that's likely, though.

Either way, I don't see all that much value in a river bet. If he's a good player, I can't think of many hands he could hold that will pay you off, but I can think of quite a few hands that beat you that he would plausibly hold. I don't think you'll get any of those hands to fold, so just check.

It should go without saying that against a non-thinking player, I would bet the river here like all the time.

just my 2c.

cheers,

mn

[bakku]

I forgot to mention that MP3 loved to check raise the turn, I saw him do it many times and he had done it to me on an earlier hand. When he checked the turn I almost wimped out and checked it through, but I think that's what he wanted me to do..or I'm just overthinking this and giving my opponent too much credit.

I couldn't think of a hand I would beat or not have to chop with that would call a river bet. I put him on either AK or AJ and either one would obviously call. He showed AJo and took down the pot /images/graemlins/frown.gif. Yes villain was TAG, he just overplayed his hand this time.