6/12 Borgata Hand vs ID4

[AviD]

OK, so here it is...guess our hands.
I don't have the notes with me, so this is off the top of my head.

ID4 is to my left in the SB, I'm on the Button with sfer to my right.

I believe there were 3 limpers to me and I call, ID4 completes in the SB and the BB checks.

5 to the flop and it comes J /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Checked to MP who bets, I raise, ID4 calls 2 cold, all others fold, MP calls.

Turn is 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif making the board J /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Checked to me, I bet, ID4 raises, MP folds, and I think for a few seconds then call.

River is a blank (we'll say 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif) making the board J /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

ID4 comes out betting, I sit and think and think and say I just can't lay this down and make the call.

What do each of us have?

[arkady]

avid,

dont know about you guys to make this blind guess, but I like these types of question so....

MP: nothing good
you: either JK or JQ
ID4: 77 or J9 (doubtful)

[cold_cash]

You have the J /images/graemlins/club.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif

ID4 has 77

[sthief09]

ID4 has 77
you have AJ or KJs

[AviD]

For those that really want to think! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

What makes you believe we each have the hands you think we do?

What in the basis of our play (knowing who the other is) makes us play the cards the way we are?

[sthief09]

by saying "I can't lay this down" it's a dead give-away that you have a very strong jack.

by cold-calling 2, then coming to life on a turn blank, I think it's pretty obvious ID4 knew one of you had the J and would be the turn, when he could raise for a double bet. as a result, I don't think he can have anything but a flopped boat.

I think you would've played 77 more strongly

[sfer]

I had basically the same read at the table, only I assumed Avid had KJ since he didn't raise preflop.

[arkady]

Thats a good question and if I knew more about your playing style, I would certainly be in a position to answer. But here goes the explanation:

I do not think you have QQ/KK/AA - the type of hands that people have a hard time releasing and assuming for some ungodly reason have limped in with. TT (if u limp in with that, would have been in the muck on the flop). 99 hmm, now that I think of it - that COULD be a possible holding for you, but only J9 could beat you and you would have 3 bet that quickly. OK you dont have 99. You called after 3 limpers, so QJs/KJs/AJo are far more likely.

ID4, could have completed with J9s, 77, but just same the could have done so with QJ, KJ, AJ. However the raise on turn indicates something more than trip jacks. The cold call on the flop could either be a slow played FH or unsure of the 9 kicker, just dont think calling 2 cold with 99 makes sense on the flop, so ID4 is not holding the 99.

To summarize, I am quite confident
You have: JQ/K/A
ID4: 77 or J9. There is also a possibility, that there could be another trip jack situation.

The reason why i think you, avid, have the J something, is because you would have 3-bet with more and probably 3-bet with AJ. There is also an equally strong possibility ID4 has AJ.

[sfer]

Assume for a moment that ID4 knows Avid will 3-bet AJ and Avid knows that ID4 knows.

[bunky9590]

Avid has QJs, ID4 has the flopped underfull with 77.

[AviD]

ID4 tabled KJo and I tabled AJo, taking it down.

OK, being completely honest as I am...my line of thinking, which as I get away from the session is extremely poor and I am the first to admit it, was...

Too many hours into the session, too clouded, and was seeing so many people throughout the weekend only come alive when something hit them that the first thing I thought was...How did the turn help him?

First thing that popped in my head was T8s, then 99. I didn't think he'd play 77 this way, knowing the single bet calling stations between us would likely call anyway chasing ANY flush or straight to the river. I also didn't think he'd play any weak Jack this way unless he was hoping for a flop CR in which case I figured he'd 3-bet me to isolate and make it two more to the MP.

Thinking back, calling the two cold and popping the turn with KJo hoping I had a weaker Jack was a fair move as it makes it two BB (instead of 1) to the MP player (knowing he would check to me) and thus accomplish the isolation. The flop play on my part immediately cuts down on the drawing odds for the entire table having only one MP caller, BUT none of these players had any concept of that...they would call any SINGLE bet but rarely 2 or more. I think Rod should have come out betting the flop, but perhaps he took didn't want to get sucked out by the calling stations? So Rod was saving his KJ for a pop on the turn probably putting me on QJs or JTs.

Some additional poor thinking on my part...

1) Why raise the flop? Why not wait for the turn if a non-heart falls knowing the rest of the limpers are likely going to call to the see the turn and will likely even come out betting if they hit something (like a 59o holder betting when the 9 turns)? Well, prior session experience and umpteen 4 board flushes put me in the mindset that I wanted to actually WIN a pot (ANY POT!) and was going to do everything I needed to to get this one.

2) I also realize trips are not as strong as a set (even though I have top kicker), I don't want to get sucked out on so I jack it up from the flop. Again, not a way to maximize your equity, you want to win BIG pots not small ones.

3) Putting Rod on T8s or 99 calling two cold?!?! WTF was I thinking? Sorry Rod! /images/graemlins/blush.gif

4) I should have 3-bet the turn to see how serious Rod was. If he had 77 or 99 he was going to likely cap, unless he got into "he knows I know he knows" mode and goes for a river CR where he knows I'm betting if checked to.

Certainly in retrospect, I should have left much earlier that day...

[arkady]

avid,

definitely entertained the possibility of Id4 having AJ. The reason why I put him on AJ and not you, is because you have 3 bet on the turn - and you didnt, so I just gave it to him instead. Had you 3-bet the turn, i presume you have been called, then you would be the one betting on the river...but being tired and frusrated certainly impacts one's game.