Good value on this NBA prop bet??

[JARID]

Wanted to collect a few opinions. My buddy put out a $50 prop bet to me over the weekend.

To win the NBA championship...

He gets the Lakers and the East
I get the rest of the West

The way I figure it, most of the East is irrelevant, but he gets the Lakers. Most circles seem to have them as the favorite. However, I get three teams with arguably as good of an opportunity as the Lakers (SA, SAC, Minn).

Any NBA fans out there with an opinion?

~J

[Daliman]

I believe you can buy a contract on lakers to win the title most anywhere for $37-42, paying 100 if they win it all. Therefore, the opposite side of that,(which is essentially what you'd be taking, as the east blows), would cost anywhere from about $53-$60. I'd take the bet, but it's no huge edge for you. I'm sure if you added all the numbers of the other west contenders, it'd work out the same or similar.

[Ed Miller]

Therefore, the opposite side of that,(which is essentially what you'd be taking, as the east blows), would cost anywhere from about $53-$60.

Dude, I don't know much about sports betting, but I can already see you guys are making a significant error. No matter how bad the conference is, the chance that the East will win is not negligible. I will GUARANTEE you that the money line on whether east or west wins the series (when it is set) won't be like -2000 West. That implies that the East has a significant chance to win.

Taking the West minus Lakers sounds like a BAD bet to me.

[WarDekar]

Right. No matter what the matchup in the NBA finals is, the chances of winning are going to be at least 20%. Plus, you have to figure in if an underdog from the West makes it then those chances rise. BUT, fortunately for you, the Lakers are going to have to get past several other West teams before they even reach the finals. You can't completely discount the East, and I don't know who has the better end of this deal but I would have to say he does slightly given that he has an entire conference plus the 5-to-7 favorite to win the West.

[Ed Miller]

You can't completely discount the East, and I don't know who has the better end of this deal but I would have to say he does slightly given that he has an entire conference plus the 5-to-7 favorite to win the West.

If the Lakers are a 5-to-7 favorite to win the West, then obviously he has the best of it. He wins the bet if the Lakers win the West! He's betting that either the Lakers win the West OR the East wins the finals.

[JARID]

Ed,

Thanks for the reply. My buddy would get the Lakes and the East. I get the rest of the West.

[Ed Miller]

Thanks for the reply. My buddy would get the Lakes and the East. I get the rest of the West.

I understand. My point is that that is equivalent to the Lakers winning the West OR the East winning the finals.

You are essentially betting AGAINST the Lakers to win the West.

[WarDekar]

No, he's betting the other side. He's betting that the Lakers DON'T win the west AND that the west wins. Unless I'm misunderstanding.

[Ed Miller]

No, he's betting the other side. He's betting that the Lakers DON'T win the west AND that the west wins. Unless I'm misunderstanding.

Ah, I understand the confusion. The "he" in my post was JARID's friend. Sorry about that. I was not clear.

[scrub]

I don't bet sports, and to be honest, I'm not sure I even know how to read the lines. But I think you're getting hosed pretty badly here.

Assuming that the market is relatively efficient (and I'm not sure that it is--the odds that I looked up were pretty screwy), you're about a 13:7 dog.

If anyone wants to check this out, I'd be curious if I was interpreting the odds table right.

Intertops has these odds for the NBA winner:

Team: Odds: p(win)
LAL 1.83:1 0.35
IND 10:1 0.091
DET 6:1 0.143
NJN 26:1 0.037
MIA 151:1 0.007
BUC 101:1 0.0098
CHA 101:1 0.0098
NYK 151:1 0.0066
BOS 251:1 0.004

Total: ~0.6582


SAC 6:1
SAN 6.5:1
MIN 8:1
DAL 31:1
MEM 76:1
HOU 61:1
NUG 201:1
JAZ 251:1
POR 151:1

Total: ~0.46

I was pretty lazy with the rounding, but they come out to just about 1, which makes me pretty sure that I read the odds table right and the juice must come out of the bet amount some other way.

Anyway, the Lakers are the favorite to win the West, but they are not a favorite against the rest of the teams in the West combined (the odds on the Lakers in the West are the same, for some reason--1.83:1 or so). But the rest of the teams in the East are supposed to beat the West team often enough to make up for it, at least according the the Intertops bettors.

scrub

[JARID]

Awesome effort, thanks. It would seem to me that having the overall favorite along with teams from the east that improve their chances of winning by not having to face the favorite, my friend would have too much the best of it here. I will stick with my gut and pass.

Regards,
~J

[Clarkmeister]

I think the Lakers have very little chance of winning the West if they have to play both their 2nd and 3rd round series' on the road.

[3for3]

"Right. No matter what the matchup in the NBA finals is, the chances of winning are going to be at least 20%."

This is simply not true. There have been many recent finals where the east is substantially more than a 4-1 dog.

Danny

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
"Right. No matter what the matchup in the NBA finals is, the chances of winning are going to be at least 20%."

This is simply not true. There have been many recent finals where the east is substantially more than a 4-1 dog.

Danny

[/ QUOTE ]

Not this year though.

The biggest dog I recall was Philly against the Lakers when the line was like -1400 IIRC. I thought the Nets were something like 6-1 two years ago, but were inexplicably short priced last year, getting only like 2.5-1 or so. I'm sure someone will correct me if my memory is foggy.

[3for3]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"Right. No matter what the matchup in the NBA finals is, the chances of winning are going to be at least 20%."

This is simply not true. There have been many recent finals where the east is substantially more than a 4-1 dog.

Danny

[/ QUOTE ]

Not this year though.

The biggest dog I recall was Philly against the Lakers when the line was like -1400 IIRC. I thought the Nets were something like 6-1 two years ago, but were inexplicably short priced last year, getting only like 2.5-1 or so. I'm sure someone will correct me if my memory is foggy.

[/ QUOTE ]

They will probably be in the neighborhood of 4-1, and as you mentioned there were 2 series where the East was more than 4-1.

Danny

[3for3]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"Right. No matter what the matchup in the NBA finals is, the chances of winning are going to be at least 20%."

This is simply not true. There have been many recent finals where the east is substantially more than a 4-1 dog.

Danny

[/ QUOTE ]

Not this year though.

The biggest dog I recall was Philly against the Lakers when the line was like -1400 IIRC. I thought the Nets were something like 6-1 two years ago, but were inexplicably short priced last year, getting only like 2.5-1 or so. I'm sure someone will correct me if my memory is foggy.

[/ QUOTE ]

They will probably be in the neighborhood of 4-1, and as you mentioned there were 2 series where the East was more than 4-1.

Danny