MLB 4/12

[Thythe]

Hmmmm, no lines posted at Intertops yet. That's very odd. I wander if they've been getting hammered with losses and are unsure how to continue. Anyway, without even looking at the lines, I immediately like the over for Min v Cle. Every Minnesota game this season has hit the over easily (though yesterday was close). This is the only game I have any feeling on as the rest are mostly National League.

[Homer]

Thythe, get an account at Pinnacle. They have 8 cent lines and are considered the best book for bases from what I gather. Plus, you'll get a deposit bonus (10% up to $50, I think). Also, if there happens to be a RAF, I'll do it and kick it back to you.

<font color="blue">YTD 29-20 +15.40u</font>

Today's picks...

1) Reds + 160 (at Phillies) (2 units, may up it to 3)

This line seems way, way off. Paul Wilson looked impressive in pitching 7 scoreless innings against the Cubs in his first start of the year. The Reds are 4-2 and have looked solid thus far. Now for the Phillies. I watch them play every day, as unfortunately I was born a Phillies fan. They are 1-5 and have scored 15 runs in 6 games. Randy Wolf looked like typical early season blah Randy Wolf in his first start of the year, giving up 4 runs on 6 hits in 5 1/3 innings. The one thing that might be working in the Phillies favor is that it's their home opener in a new ballpark, but I don't see that making enough of a difference to justify making the Reds such a big dog.

2) Pirates +196 (at Cubs) (2 units)

Again, I don't get it. While it's true that Maddux is better than Benson, the Cubs are better than the Pirates, the Cubs are at home, etc, +196 is giving the Cubs a little too much credit. The Pirates have been playing alright thus far, and the Cubs haven't been playing great. Maddux is getting older and isn't the pitcher he used to be. I think this will be a fairly close game, with the Pirates winning a good bit more than 34% of the time. I'm thinking about betting 1 unit on the runline and 1 unit on the moneyline here, if not 2 units on the moneyline.

3) Twins/Indians 9.5o +104 (1 unit)

The Indians have scored 5.3 runs/game and the Twins have scored 6.5 runs/game. In their first series of the year, the total runs scored were 11, 13 and 15. In the first game with today's starting pitchers, the final score was 11-4. Lohse went 4, giving up 5 runs on 9 hits, and Minnesota's shaky pen gave up 6 runs the rest of the way. Anyhoo, I'll take the over 9.5 at better than 50/50 odds.

[/end crappy I don't know what I'm talking about analysis]

-- Homer

[Thythe]

I've got Min v Cle over 9.5, Pirates v Cubs Pirates +1.5, and Pirates v Cubs over 7. I don't know much about the scoring potential of the Pirates and Cubs, but I think 7 for any game is way too low.

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
but I think 7 for any game is way too low

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrigley in April is a different animal. It's a cold day and the wind dictates. When the wind blows in it's real tough scoring. Plus both teams have adequate pitchers going plus both teams have mediocre offenses.

But don't go by me as I'm not a big totals player /images/graemlins/smile.gif I did however just construct a "black box" computer spreadsheet I plan on testing out this season for totals play. I think Pitt today at +200 looks like a decent value play.

[Homer]

Today - 2-1 +3.04u

TYD - 31-21 +18.44u

Needed the Twins to score one more in the 9th for a perfect afternoon.

-- Homer

[Thythe]

Yep I needed one more run for the Twins game to get me a perfect 3-0 afternoon. I'll have to settle for 2-1.

[Thythe]

I have pretty much zero feel for tonight's games, though, and don't really like any of the lines so I think that's it for today. Maybe a little research into tomorrow's games. I'm already thinking over on Sox v Royals regardless of Loaiza pitching.

[Homer]

Yeah, I'm not betting any of tonight's games either. Tomorrow I already have 2 units on Tampa Bay +270 (at NY Yankees) and 1 unit on Rangers +175 (versus A's).

-- Homer

[scalf]

/images/graemlins/blush.gif late mon..

k.c. -145..

tex m.l./ov 11 parlay..

gl /images/graemlins/laugh.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[Chris Daddy Cool]

Out of moral obligations, I cannot in good conscience, ever bet against the A's, good line or not. /images/graemlins/grin.gif