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View Full Version : Good play to take down the pot with negative EV value....?


wontons
04-11-2004, 06:49 PM
I have around 220..many people at the table do not have deep stacks..anyway, I'm in EP and limp in with AhKh...I usually never ever do this...but the pots have been being raised preflop over half the time.
There are about 3-4 callers total(including sm and bb) Flop comes Qh 9h 3x...I check...a extremely wild and bad player bets 50 into a dry pot...this same player raised to 50 preflop after 2 raises preflop in a diff hand and when everyone folded showed AJh..right anyway..
I check, wild guy bets 50, folded back to me I push all in for 206..a 156 raise...he thinks about it for about 2 minutes and folds...he then showed K9 and I showed my AhKh....in this situation when i raised all in...I was basically hoping he would fold..cause if he called i would be a 10% underdog someone told me I dont know if this is right or not....How was my play based on the info given?
After entering this on twodimes.net...i was -.025 ev on the flop so was this a bad play bc it was simply neg value?

karlson
04-12-2004, 06:59 AM
If your opponent will never fold and the pot is not big enough to justify drawing, then yes, this is a play that has -EV.

However, if your opponent will occasionally fold, you must factor this in. Suppose that your opponent folds 50% of the time. Then half the time, you will win the $60 or $70 in the pot, and the other half, you will have just under 50% equity for the $400 or whatever. Clearly, it is now a profitable scenario.

If you have the exact pot size and stacks, you can figure out exactly how often your opponent needs to fold to make your play profitable. Given the strength of your draw, I can tell you it will be a very small percentage, probably 5% is enough.

Moreover, here, there might be enough in the pot already (with the blinds and limpers) where folding might be a mistake, even if he showed you a pair.

balkii
04-12-2004, 02:27 PM
You need to buy Sklansky's "Theory of Poker" and read and reread the chapter about semi-bluffing.