Flopped a set heads up...help devise our plan.

[chesspain]

Party 2/4...I haven't been at the table for long, so no read on my opponent.

I'm in MP, and dealt 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Folded to me and I raise, next player coldcalls, everyone else folds...two to the flop (5.5SB).


9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I bet, he calls...(3.5BB).


[9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif] 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Devise a plan from this point forth...

[JDErickson]

Bet out and 3 bet if raised.

Depending on river card go from there.

[chesspain]

We have one vote so far for the straight forward approach. Does anyone like either check-calling or checkraising on the turn, as a way to try to possibly squeeze an extra bet out of him?

[real843]

I'd go for the straighforward approach aswell. If you check you might miss one BB due to him checking aswell...

[cold_cash]

If he's aggressive and you check here there's a good chance he'll put you on overcards and take a stab at betting it. Then again, if you're not sure what kind of a player he is I would lean toward just betting it myself and taking the guess work out of it.

I think the last thing you want is a check-through on the turn, then a fold to your river bet. If he's going to call at all it'll be on the turn, not the river.

That's what I think, anyway.

[Ponks]

I think I'd play this pretty straight forward and keep betting hoping he'd raise the turn, and if not oh well, atleast you didnt give a free card. I think it does depend on the player though, but for your average opponent I'd just keep on betting.

[bernie]

When i've checked here i've often regretted it as i usually lost a bet or 2 by doing it.

Most will likely call with overcards and many will call the river with A high.

If you c/r you may only gain 1 bet since he could easily fold when he'd call 2 if you bet it through. Why get cute with it?

b

[Dylan Wade]

Once again, this is a scenario where you might be able to squeeze a tiny profit out with check raises or check/calls, but it's very read-dependant. You're risking quite a bit if it gets checked through.

I'm going to go with the typical read here... 2/4 party. loose/passive. Our anti-hero coldcalls, which helps confirm my read.

Against such a player you definitely want to bet out the turn. There's little risk of him folding the turn. He may fold the river, but it's still very much more likely for you to bet/be-called than it is for you to check/bluffed... so once again I'd bet the river. Betting hands for value, it's pretty boring isn't it? Such is small stakes.

[Chaos_ult]

I think playing this pot straight forward is the best plan. A free card could cost you the entire pot.

[Dylan Wade]

No. It's not going to cost you the entire pot. I sincerely doubt our opponent has more than a slim chance to win this pot at this point. Even if you do "lose the pot" you can't attribute your lack of a bet to that outcome.

But certainly checking is a mistake. However it will only cost you some fraction of a bet. To see for yourself why it's a mistake consider a few figures (Now I'm responding more to chesspain):

Let's assume we will win this hand. We're probably a huge favorite anyway, so this is a small assumption.

Next, estimate the % chance your opponent will call if you bet.

Next, estimate the % chance your opponent will check through if you check.


Assuming our opponent will call the checkraise, and our hand is always good, the EV on the turn is apx...

EV of check-raise ~= check%*0 + (1-check%)*2

>?

EV of bet ~= call%*1

I didn't provide any results. I'll let you make your own estimates and decide. I find it hard to believe you can say check/raising is superior against your typical 2/4 player. What do you think?

[trillig]

I have to bet that up thru the river....

Flush draw.... Op has to pay the toll...

and would love to see the 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif on the river.

-Bri

[chesspain]

I see that everyone felt that playing straight forward was the best plan. Consequently, I all took your advice, and...

I bet the turn, and my opponent folded /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[James Boston]

I don't think slowplaying is a good option since you're betting ahead of him. He could already be on a flush or open-end straight draw. Don't give the free cards. Open the betting on every round, and if raised, 3-bet.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
Betting hands for value, it's pretty boring isn't it? Such is small stakes.

[/ QUOTE ]

So is mid stakes.

But, then again, it actually has nothing to do with the stakes.

b

[James Boston]

So you missed a couple bets. Do you think he would have bet if you checked?

[Dylan Wade]

Yeah good point.... it's the table not the stakes. But the day I see a tight 2/4 table I'll quit poker.

[sthief09]

Just for a different prospective:

I usually check, looking to check-raise in situations similar to this (preferably without the 2 hearts), if I have no read. I think more often than not on this board, my opponent has nothing and will fold. if he does have something, he'll probably bet it. what's more, if it gets checked through, he'll be more inclined to call on the river.

I think the value of this play lies in the typical player's propensity to try and bet you off this pot on the turn.

[Nate tha' Great]

It depends on what my opponent thinks of me. I'd gotten into a phase where I was checking (and raising) in these spots way too often; the reason is because I'm a very aggressive player and so I get called down or raised a lot as it is; most 2+2ers will have a tighter table image and so I think then that the check-raise play has more merit.

That said, part of the motivation behind checking in these spots is for the play of future hands. If opponents begin to fear your checks, you'll begin to get to see some river cards for free, or at least for one bet. It also becomes easier to pick up a pot on the river in those spots if the turn is checked through, even if your hand hasn't improved.

And finally, there probably is some psychological benefit to the play, in that you can mildly tilt your opponent.

Making your opponent feel like he has a small penis = +EV.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
If you c/r you may only gain 1 bet since he could easily fold when he'd call 2 if you bet it through.

[/ QUOTE ]

My experience is that online opponents will very rarely fold to the check-raise, especially if they haven't seen you make the play before. The play has sort of a deer-in-the-headlights effect on most opponents and they're usually just going to call you down.