AA in action

[Trix]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) - No read :/

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB completes, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, SB folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero caps</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (10 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Hero folds, UTG+2 folds.

Final Pot: 14 BB


Comments ?

[Alporfavor]

Yeah looks like a set, that turn raise is a nasty one. The queen can't have helped him at all, (i wouldn't put him on QQ), so set or at least two pair. I think the cap on the flop was good, if you'd just called the 3-bet it would of made things very hard.

Unless he went spastic with his flush draw.... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Randy Burgess]

I think you put yourself in a very bad spot when you bet the turn. Even so, I would have called the turn raise and called a river bet as long as no one raised there.

Think about your objective here. You've got top pair. You have no read on any of the players. There's 4 BB in the pot preflop plus 6 BB on the flop for a total of ten BB going to the turn.

A good goal in this situation would be to get to the river as cheaply as possible at this point, given the big pot, and see what your opponents were raising with. That way you a) still have some chance of winning the current pot, and b) gain a useful read on your opponent even if you don't win here.

You had to know a turn bet might get raised, so why bet? Check-call along. You may find that your main opponent is wildly overplaying a big flush draw, has a nine with an Ace kicker, limped a pair of Queens or Kings, etc. He meanwhile may be putting you an AKs or some such and is hoping you'll drop if he just pressures you enough. Sure, there's a good chance he has two pair or a set - but the pot is probably big enough that you can play the percentages here and go for the call. You'll take it down often enough to make the play positive expectation.

Hands like this offer a good opportunity to develop strategies for big pairs. Just do some thinking about how you'll handle a similar situation next time and what your goals will be.

[Alporfavor]

No cap on the flop then?

I thought the whole point of the cap on the flop was to take control of the hand and fold if raised on the turn.

[Tosh]

I would certainly not fold here.

[Randy Burgess]

In multiway pots with loose, calling-station type players, there is no such thing as "taking control of the hand" by aggressive flop betting. Most of the time you will have to show down the best hand to win, so raises are better reserved for either a) knocking people out, or b) getting money in the pot when you think you hold the best hand (or possibly the best draw if enough people are in).

Another argument against flop aggression here is that our hero didn't yet have a read on anybody and so couldn't know how they would react.

[Ed Miller]

I think may have written a post a while back about hands like this...

[Ed Miller]

The queen can't have helped him at all, (i wouldn't put him on QQ), so set or at least two pair.

If he knows that his opponent has a set, should he fold or call the turn raise?

If he knows that his opponent has two pair, should he fold or call the turn raise?

[Trix]

If I choose to call down after beeing raised on the turn, I´m getting 15-16:2 and I think my opponent have either 55, 99 or a flushdraw(not very likely, as I dont think many will raise the turn with that after a bet from a flop capper and a call). Two-Pairs are unlikely given the board texture.
I´ll only win when he holds the flush and miss(not counting the wins from my 2outer against the set).
Getting 8:1 i need to win more than 1/8. So he will have to hold that flushdraw about 1/6 of the time.

I dont think he will, so I folded.

I bet, because I felt I could fold to a raise, maybe that was wrong.

[Tosh]

Unless I'm totally miscalculating he should check fold the turn if he knows his opponent has a set. If he knows his opponent has 2 pair he can call the turn.

Anyway I don't think it is certain his opponent has a set and I don't fold.

[Trix]

I´m getting 15:3 at best when it gets to me 2. time and I´m most likely against either a set or a flushdraw.

[sthief09]

no way... this is a safe flop. flop raises mean very little to me. people just like to splash around chips on the flop

[Alporfavor]

If Trix knew his opponent had trips, he has 2 outs so needs 22.5:1 pots odds and only getting 14:1 so definite fold.

If two pair, then trix needs either an ace or the board to pair without the opponent making a full house. Eg. opponent has 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif Then trix needs an ace, 2 or Q. = 8 outs. equals 4.75:1 odds to call. Worth the call.

If same situation as above but utg+2 also has a flush draw along with MP2 two pair then only 6 outs. Need 6.66:1 to call. So still worth a call.

This right??

[StellarWind]

I think you should call the 3-bet on the flop and try to find a cheap path to the river. You could be up against lesser overpairs, flush draws, and straight draws so you cannot say that you are beat. But you usually are so every extra bet is -EV.

A huge problem with the turn bet-fold is you paid full price to see the river card without actually getting to see it. Even if turn raise = 100% set you could have drawn for you own set at the same price by just check-calling.

If the turn checks through, well they got you, but it's not like they would have folded any worthwhile hand. All you can lose by checking is the chance to make a dubious value bet.

[Alporfavor]

[ QUOTE ]
A huge problem with the turn bet-fold is you paid full price to see the river card without actually getting to see it. Even if turn raise = 100% set you could have drawn for you own set at the same price by just check-calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the most insightful thing on poker i've ever read, never once thought of it like this...

[Ed Miller]

This right??

Yup. This is an important analysis in these situations. You often don't know whether your opponent has two pair or a set. You need to estimate how often he has a set and how often he has two pair (and again how often he has neither and is bluffing or playing strangely). Then you take a average of the chances you will outdraw him weighted by the chances that he has each hand.

Usually that calculation indicates a call in these spots because of the likelihood of two pair.

[MortalNuts]

[ QUOTE ]
I´m getting 15:3 at best when it gets to me 2. time and I´m most likely against either a set or a flushdraw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Trix --

I believe you are much, much more likely to be against "either a set or a flush draw" once you bet and are raised on the turn after capping the flop. People 3-bet the flop all the time on worse hands than that; I think folding when it's two back to you would be quite bad.

I didn't see this post till today, so I suppose I might as well give my 2c about the way the hand actually played out. I also would typically cap the flop and lead the turn. On a board with a possible flush draw, I would have called the raise, but I think folding (after someone called your initial bet, and you had capped the flop) is only marginally -EV; imho a typical opponent raising you here will have a set the large majority of the time, so you're calling only for the off chance that he's on the draw or has some bizarre two pair, plus of course your small chance of improving. But I believe the turn raise is the crucial thing that allows you to pretty narrowly define his possible hands -- just a 3-bet on the flop, or even a bet after you check the turn, still can be a lot of hands.

Even though I would not fold to the raise, I still disagree with those who are telling you to call the flop 3-bet and check the turn. Your goal is not simply to get to showdown, it's to get to showdown with the most money in the pot when you're ahead (and presumably less money when you're behind). On the turn, assuming you're playing against typical party folks, you still don't have nearly enough information to assume you're way behind. And man would I hate to see that turn checked around. I do not think a much worse hand will bet it for you, but I do think they will call a turn bet. (That is, I don't think this is one of those cases where you make just as much money when you're ahead by checking.) The raise is bad, but I'm seldom sure enough that my opponent has specifically a set to fold.

I find it somewhat interesting to compare this with a recent hand I posted (also with AA, in which I bet and was raised and 3-bet on the flop): here it is (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Board=micro&amp;Number=619143&amp;Fo rum=All_Forums&amp;Words=5678&amp;Match=Username&amp;Searchpag e=0&amp;Limit=25&amp;Old=allposts&amp;Main=619143&amp;Search=true# Post619143)

That hand also featured a two-flush flop, plus some possible straight draws/two-pair possibilities that aren't as present in your hand. Glancing at it just now, I realize I didn't post the results: Button, who's actually an okay player generally, had 99.

whatever; that's just my 2c.

cheers,

mn

[Alporfavor]

Is there something i should read to help me estimate the likelyhood of what the opponent's hand is? Or is this based on your read on the opponent and his play in the hand?

[Ed Miller]

Is there something i should read to help me estimate the likelyhood of what the opponent's hand is? Or is this based on your read on the opponent and his play in the hand?

From your read you put your opponent on a range of hands. Then you can calculate precisely how likely he is to have any particular hand (assuming your read is correct, of course). I discuss this process in my book.

[TheRake]

[ QUOTE ]
I discuss this process in my book.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Book.....The Book.....The Book

You're killin us man /images/graemlins/grin.gif

So can we all expect hand signed copies???? /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

TheRake