PL08, I almost made a big mistake

[TylerD]

Ultimate Bet Pot-Limit Omaha/8, $.25 BB (9 handed)

Hero ($35.30)
Button ($14.50)
SB ($14.25)
BB ($18.25)
UTG ($8.85)
UTG+1 ($22.70)
MP1 ($11.30)
MP2 ($25)
MP3 ($31.45)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $0.25, MP3 calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, Button folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.25) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($1.25) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP2 bets $1.5, MP3 calls $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds.

River: ($5.75) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
MP2 bets $6, MP3 raises to $24, Hero...?

No real read on opponents. I have no shot at the high and there is a good chance I'm going to get quartered on the low hand. On the other hand if they both have high hands or worse lows I'm making a mathematical catastrophe by not calling. Is it a mistake to call here or not? Could I have avoided it by playing the turn (or flop) differently? Is it entirely a case of playing the players, ie "playing poker" here?

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Is it a mistake to call here or not?

[/ QUOTE ]

Tyler - If you have no knowledge of your opponent's hands, having started with 8 opponents and assuming anyone who also was dealt A3XX would still be in the pot, I think the probability
• neither of your two opponents started with A3XX is 0.61
• one of your opponents started with A3XX is 0.35
• both of your opponents started with A3XX is 0.04.

Assuming MP2 goes all-in to call the raise, you're risking $24 to possibly:
• win about $15 (if neither opponent started with A3XX).
• lose about $4.50 (if one opponent started with A3XX).
• lose about $11 (if both of them started with A3XX).

Here's the math set-up:
+15*(0.61) - 4.5*(0.35) - 11*(0.04)

Solving, I get about +$7 for making the call. If the total had been negative, I would think you should fold. Since it's positive, I think you have odds to call.

[ QUOTE ]
Could I have avoided it by playing the turn (or flop) differently?

[/ QUOTE ]

Someone who knows the game better than I do can give you better advice here. However, I would have taken the initiative and bet the pot on the flop.

[ QUOTE ]
Is it entirely a case of playing the players, ie "playing poker" here?

[/ QUOTE ]

MP2 could have the queen high straight or not. (I wouldn't think MP3 does, but that's possible too). MP3 could have A4XX and be making a move to get rid of anyone else with A4XX, not figuring you for A3XX after you checked the flop. I'm interested in the thoughts of others here.

But to answer your question, there lots of possibilities and some knowledge of the players could be useful. However, after the betting is checked around on the turn it's hard to read anything. And in that case, the mathematical analysis (already provided above) would heavily influence my own decision.

I'd call the bet on the river. The worst thing that can happen is you'll get sixthed and lose about half of your last bet - but the odds against that worse case scenario are about 24 to 1.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[crockpot]

assuming you folded the river, i think you played every street well here. five opponents is a lot to be bluffing out on the flop when you have such a weak hand. on the turn, raising will often result in a reraise by JT, forcing you to fold. with your implied odds you have a clear call with the nut low draw and nut flush draw.

here, if you are quartered, you'll lose about $5.50 on your call of the $24, and you'll win about $13 if you aren't quartered. but the question is, will the players both have straights often enough to justify a call here? you'd have to assume that the other caller on fourth street was putting in a pot bet to draw to a 67xx, or slowplaying a JTxx. it isn't impossible that you will get sixthed, which would be a disaster.

in future situations like this one, look at the card that completes the low on board. is it likely to have made a high hand for this player? if not, he just made a nut low. here, it is possible that a bad player was drawing to a 67xx. i would still say it's more likely that he has an A3xx, but calling can't be a big mistake, whereas it probably would be if the river had been a 4 instead.

[Buzz]

Hi Crock - I'm not disagreeing with you, just philosophising and wondering.

I play mostly limit Omaha-8 and in awe of your excellent on-line site for the pot-limit game.

It would seem one might encounter much more bluffing in the pot-limit version than the limit version of Omaha-8.

Yet you seem to discount the possibility of an opponent making a move with less than the nuts on the river here, whereas, ironically, in a limit game after this action and with these cards, I would fully expect such a move - even anticipate it. Indeed, I might well pop it here myself (in the place of MP3) with 2nd nut low after this action, hoping to get rid of a non-tenacious opponent who also had the 2nd nut low (and who probably would fold it to the double bet).

In a way, popping it with the second nut low in a pot-limit game to avoid getting quartered for low seems foolish, but certainly no more foolish than MP3 potting it with the nut low. Or am I missing something?

I can see some other possibilities for MP3, like having the nut low and top two pair and reading MP2 for baloney - and in that case, if MP3's read is correct, Tyler either makes a mistake calling and gets quartered or folds - but in that case, since Tyler would fold here with the second nut low, and since Tyler has played his hand as though he doesn't have the nut low, it would seem MP3 would do better by calling and thus possibly inducing Tyler to chase. There are lots of possibilities from my point of view, many of them favorable to Tyler.

I'm just wondering if I'm overlooking a fundamental concept of pot limit Omaha-8 here.

----

As to betting the flop or not, in a limit game I think Tyler would have a clear bet.

The only cards he really hates on the turn are the aces and treys. And if he has taken the initiative and bet on the second betting round, it seems not inconceivable that he might get a free card on the third betting round. At least in a limit game it is far too passive to not bet that flop with Tyler's hand, IMHO.

But that's thinking for a limit game where six players out of nine have seen the flop. Since you favor checking on the second betting round, and since that's how Tyler played it, there may well be another fundamental pot limit concept I'm missing or overlooking.

Regards,

Buzz

[Buzz]

This is not a big deal, but when I see I have made a mistake in a post, I correct it. I wrote:
[ QUOTE ]
Assuming MP2 goes all-in to call the raise, you're risking $24 to possibly:
• win about $15 (if neither opponent started with A3XX).
• lose about $4.50 (if one opponent started with A3XX).
• lose about $11 (if both of them started with A3XX).

Here's the math set-up:
+15*(0.61) - 4.5*(0.35) - 11*(0.04)

Solving, I get about +$7 for making the call. If the total had been negative, I would think you should fold. Since it's positive, I think you have odds to call.


[/ QUOTE ]

I should have written

Assuming MP2 goes all-in to call the raise, you're risking $24 to possibly:
• win $14.50 (if neither opponent started with A3XX).
• lose $4.75 (if one opponent started with A3XX).
• lose $11.17 (if both of them started with A3XX).

Here's the math set-up:
+14.5*(0.61)-4.75*(0.35)-11.17*(0.04)

Solving, I get about +$6.74 for making the call. If the total had been negative, I would think you should fold. Since it's positive, I think you have odds to call.

I stack chips and then divide them according to the split. Somehow I had an extra chip somewhere. At any rate, not a big difference.

Buzz

double check scratch below
1.75+23.25 = 25
5.75+23.25+24 = 53
53+24 = 77
77/2 = 38.50
38.50-24 = +14.50
38.50/2 - 24 = -4.75
38.50/3 - 24 = -11.17

[Big Dave D]

There are two styles of play in PLO8b that can be winning styles, depedning on game conditions. One, unusually for big bet poker, is quite tight, almost passive, and you basically only jump into action when you have incredible strong hands. This is the style that you are playing here and the one that crock advocates. The other style is somewhat more aggressive, and will necessitate that you can outplay and outthink your opponents and nut just wait for the nut low and strong highs. It of course also requires your opponents to think, which is why, depending on the game, it may not work at the £25 buyin level. However in my view it is long term a better style because as you move up levels and play better players, the first style will simply grind to a halt. I played for a good chunk of time in the UB plo8b 1-2 game, when that was a regular feature and one of the biggest plo games on the net! (this was prob 18-24 months ago.) Eventually there were a hardcore of 4-5 players per game who knew how to play and you needed more moves in your kitbag to make profit - this was probably also why the game burnt out.

To the hand in question a key feature is that preflop you should make a sweetener raise of 3x the pot. This is not just because your hand is above average and your foes are probably playing much worse...but because it will increase your chances to WIN YOU THE BUTTON. Position is so vital in this game that this is very much worth shooting for. Having raised preflop, the hand kinda plays itself. You will bet the flop, the turn and the river. Of course if you are check raised on the flop you can pass, but by the turn you are locked to seeing the river. You may get quarted but you may also be surprised at the junk people are showing too.

gl

Dave

[crockpot]

raising with the second nut low to knock out a possible nut low behind you can be a good play - when it works. and based on what i've seen from the players in my online plo8 games, it's just not worth it to try to get these guys to lay down a nut low, so i won't make this play myself. why risk $24 to win $3?

i won't completely discount the possibility of an opponent moving with less than the nuts here, but i certainly doubt that typical opponents would be pot-raising a pot bet with a non-nut low. of course, it is certainly possible that both opponents are on high hands. if i do call, this is what i would be playing for.

and yes, if MP3 is a good player, he will just call here if he has the nut low and no high. but just because a play is smart, doesn't mean typical players will make it. most poor players i know would raise with the nut low here, because they're playing their own cards instead of yours. you do have a point though; i should have told him to consider the opponent before making a decision.

i think what you're missing about betting the flop is that you may be massively increasing the cost of your draw. if you check here, you can hit the low for free if you get it on the turn, or for a call of $1.50 if someone bets the turn. if you bet on the flop, you could get check-raised forcing you to fold, or someone could bet out the turn charging you much more to draw, possibly forcing you to fold again.

by contrast, in limit you will usually cost yourself at most one small bet by betting, and you may save money if your bet causes someone to check on the turn.

[DPCondit]

[ QUOTE ]
To the hand in question a key feature is that preflop you should make a sweetener raise of 3x the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Either this is a typo, or you were thinking of no limt. Other than that I basically agree with you.

Good luck,
Don

[Paul2432]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
To the hand in question a key feature is that preflop you should make a sweetener raise of 3x the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Either this is a typo, or you were thinking of no limt. Other than that I basically agree with you.

Good luck,
Don

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume he means 3x the blind.

Paul

[TylerD]

Thanks for all your comments. I called, the other two both had nut straights and I took half the pot.

[Big Dave D]

[twistedbeats]

i just wanna say i miss the hell out of that game.

[Big Dave D]

...me too although i wonder where the toughies went...I see Aaron and Natural around now and again, but Poker2002, nonutnodough and sleipner (?) are all on the Internet missing list...the main thing was it was a fun social game as well, the like of which i havent seen in a hell of a time.

gl

dd