When to move up.......

[sublime]

Being a goal orientated person, It actually just occured to me that I dont have a short term poker goal. Just a vauge "get better" mid-term plan.

How do I know I am ready to move up to the next level? In this case 1/2 at party? If its JUST bankroll, I could move on now, but I imagine I need to have sufficient winning experiance. How many +BB's should I aim for before moving up/on?

[eric5148]

I'd say play at least 5000 hands, then move up when you have 300 BB. I started at .25/.5 at UB, and reached 300 BB after 6500 hands.

I moved up "early" after that becuase I went to Paradise to play .5/1 and the games were much softer than UB .25/.5. So now I split my time between UB .5/1 and Paradise 1/2.

[Sam T.]

I went through the same thing a while back. I decided that (barring a huge downswing) I'd start playing $1/$2 at 200 table hours.

Have a look at Trix's old thread here (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=470342&page=&view=&sb =5&o=). Inside are links to additional threads.

You might also try to track down Alan Shoomaker's articles on this subject. I emailed him, and he sent them the next day.

[sublime]

Will do
Thanks /images/graemlins/smile.gif

FWIW
I am not really in a hurry and know I need to learn a lot more, just liek to have something to shoot for.

[MaxPower]

There are no rules. If money is not an issue, take a shot at a higher game. If you feel like you can spot the mistakes you opponents are making and know how to take advantage of them, you can play that game.

I think you guys are very lucky to have these micro-limit games to practice in. I would just stay at that level until you feel you are not learning anything anymore. Then move up and that will force you to learn some new things.

[bisonbison]

From most important to least important, here are the three questions to ask:

1) Am I a winning player at my current level?
2) Do I have the proper bankroll to play at a higher level?
3) Am I prepared for the game texture at a higher level?

Each of these questions can get pretty complex. Basically, If 1 & 2 are true but not 3, then you can move up and learn about 3 while you adjust. If 1 & 3 are true but not 2, then taking a shot is not a bad idea if you're willing to move down if variance catches up.

If 1 is not true, then 3 is also very unlikely to be true, and you should stay put.

Please note that "Am I a winning player" is actually a very complicated question. Winning x BB over 5000 hands doesn't answer it.

[dfscott]

I've seen the 300BB figure a lot as well, so I think it's a good benchmark. FWIW, I also saw somewhere that Sklansky recommended that you have a bankroll equal to 200BB divided by your win rate in BB/hour. IOW, if you win 1BB/hour, you need 200BB. If you can win 2BB/hour, you only need 100BB. If you only win .5BB/hour, you need 400BB.

Of course, you don't really know what your win rate is at that level until you played there a while, so I'm not really sure how you go about using that formula. /images/graemlins/confused.gif I'd stick with the 300BB.

[eric5148]

[ QUOTE ]
Please note that "Am I a winning player" is actually a very complicated question. Winning x BB over 5000 hands doesn't answer it.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right, "Am I a winning player" is a very complex question. The reason for giving a certain number of BB won or hands played to determine when to move up is because players at the micro limits (you, me or sublime), simply don't have the poker expierience to make the judgement as to whether we are "beating" the game. So, we of course can't make the judgement as to whether we could beat a limit we've never played. Thus, we need a more structured system to help us judge when we can move up.

I'm not trying to say the numbers I stated are the definitive answer, but how could one deny that a player who has won over 300BB over 5000 hands is for the most part, better than his opponents?

Also, sublime said he is a "goal oriented person" and "wants something to shoot for." I think this type of player would be more focused on improving his play if he had a number to shoot for.

[bisonbison]

You've probably missed my "Microlimits Progress Quest" post, in which I track my progress from new year's of this year: 300 BB at .5/1 -> move to 1/2. 300 BB at 1/2 -> move to 2/4. I'm about 150 BB into 2/4, and when I get to 300 BB, I'll likely move to 3/6. I'm all for taking a shot.

It's likely that someone who wins 300 BB at a level is a winning player, but it is by no means certain, and if you are actually asking "am I ready to move up" instead of "will moving up be disastrous", then I think you're going to want a substantial sample of hands. More than 5000. More than 20,000. More like 50,000 to 100,000.

When I reach 3-6, I'm going to spend a long time there, because I feel that the level of play above that will be too different from the micros I'm used to for me to prosper without really laying a foundation of knowledge and experience. That's it.

The arbitrary goals we set are worthwhile, but they're just arbitrary goals, and many of them come woefully short of the long run.

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
I also saw somewhere that Sklansky recommended that you have a bankroll equal to 200BB divided by your win rate in BB/hour. IOW, if you win 1BB/hour, you need 200BB. If you can win 2BB/hour, you only need 100BB. If you only win .5BB/hour, you need 400BB

[/ QUOTE ]
This is WAY off! There is no way in hell you can get away with having only 100BB, no matter how much of a winning player you are! A good friend of mine is beating his tables at 1.7BB/ hour, and in the last 3 months he's had at least two swings that have been over 100BB. In fact, one of them was over 200BB!

If you are willing and able to supplement your bankroll with outside funding, then great. You can get away with 100BB or so at those stakes. But if you're planning on building from scratch, you need AT LEAST 300BB before you move up (unless you're just taking a shot, which is often a good idea).

[MicroBob]

"A good friend of mine is beating his tables at 1.7BB/ hour, and in the last 3 months he's had at least two swings that have been over 100BB. In fact, one of them was over 200BB!"

i wonder over how many hds he was beating his tables at 1.7BB/hr.
i had about 2.6BB/100 at 2/4 and was doing just dandy....until i dropped 250BB's in the past couple of days. yuck. my win-rate dropped like a rock too.

but i knew i had leaks and that i could get burned at some point. it happened. my sample size was reasonably small (25k in ptracker and 15k pre-ptracker) so there was still some evening out to do.

so i'm heading back to 1/2 and even .5/1 for a little bit to un-learn bad habits hopefully and to re-build bankroll.

thus, my suggestion, if you have won enough to have the 300BB for 1/2 then go ahead and delve into that game. gradually if you like. you don't need to stay at .5/1 that long imo.
you can take a little bit longer to go from 1/2 to 2/4 and then from 2/4 to 3/6 if you like.
and you can always step back at any time if you hit a losing skid.....or your confidence takes a hit (cough, cough....ahem....finger pointing at myself).

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I also saw somewhere that Sklansky recommended that you have a bankroll equal to 200BB divided by your win rate in BB/hour. IOW, if you win 1BB/hour, you need 200BB. If you can win 2BB/hour, you only need 100BB. If you only win .5BB/hour, you need 400BB

[/ QUOTE ]
This is WAY off! There is no way in hell you can get away with having only 100BB, no matter how much of a winning player you are! A good friend of mine is beating his tables at 1.7BB/ hour, and in the last 3 months he's had at least two swings that have been over 100BB. In fact, one of them was over 200BB!


[/ QUOTE ]

I thought it sounded crazy, too, so I went and looked it up. The exact quote was:

"A key fact in this analysis is that a player who can earn one big bet an hour needs a playing bankroll of about 200 big bets. A second fact is that your bankroll requirements change in proportion to your win rate. Thus you need 100 big bets if you can win two big bets an hour, and 400 big bets if you can win only half a big bet an hour. "

This is from an essay entitled Jack and Jill (http://www.twoplustwo.com/dsessay16.html). I'm pretty sure that he's talking about B&M games at higher limits, so maybe the variance is less there.

[eric5148]

I read, and I posted my own progress in the micro limit progress thread. It was very cool. I don't think I'm making my point clear though.

Arbitrary goals are more about motivation to improve than they are about maximizing profit, or proving yourself to be a long term winning player. I got the impression from sublime's post that he was looking more for an incentive to improve than anything else.

Most video games have defined levels because it makes the game more fun when you achieve each goal of getting to the next level. If a game just said move to the next level when you've played a lot and feel like your ready, it would take the fun and challenge out of it.

Besides, I highly doubt moving up to 1/2 or 2/4 could be totally "disastrous" for a player who is studying the game and improving, as sublime appears to be.

P.S. - Good luck on your quest to 3/6, I'll keep an eye on your progress.

[PraetorianAZ]

What is the difference between 1/2 and 2/4? I passed my 300BB goal at 1/2 more quickly than expected and wondering if I'm ready to move up.

How much better is their play?
If you're making 5 BB/100 at 1/2, does that translate to 5BB at 2/4?

[Trix]

Hi

All I wanna say is in this thread and the one Brian gives a link to.

list (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=micro&Number=470342&PHPSES SID=&fpart=1#Post470342Post470342)

Al´s article is great btw.

[beachbum]

From my experience to 3/6 now, play has improved marginally at each level. The 3/6 is not only beatable, but crushable if you continue to improve as well. I'm up 800BB w/ 32000 hands played. I'll be moving to 5/10 shortly.

I think 5 BB/100 is huge and might be an unrealistic goal at 2/4, especially if you mulitable. Maybe this is possible at 1/2, but your sample size of hands might be too small too. Remember at 2/4 now the maximum rake jumps from $1 to $3 per pot, so this will affect your hourly rate as well as very few pots get over $60. Stay focused and confident though and you'll do fine.