Can I fold the river?

[spamuell]

TGC 1/2 10-handed, not as loose as I’d like. I’m in MP with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.

Pre-flop: one limper to me, and I limp, folded to the SB who completes and the BB checks. Four to the flop for 4SB:

Flop: 2/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif

SB checks, BB bets, I raise, folded to BB who 3-bets and I call with the intention of folding the turn unimproved. Two to the turn for 5BB:

Turn: 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif

Oh, I improved. Bet, call. Two to the river for 7BB:

River: 6/images/graemlins/club.gif

He bets, I… well… my mouse hovers over the fold button. I’m definitely folding my top pair on the river for 1 bet. Definitely. No screwing around this time. But wait… might he be pushing a weaker Jack here? One time in 9? That’s only 11% of the time. Argh, I make the crying call.

Do I have to call this river?

[SpaceAce]

If you are good one in nine times, you only gain a little by calling but you lose a lot by folding. If you are not good one in nine times, you only lose a portion of a big bet by calling. I don't want to call here but I probably would.

Edit: Unless I had a specific read on the opponent, of course.

SpaceAce

[spamuell]

[ QUOTE ]
If you are good one in nine times, you only gain a little by calling but you lose a lot by folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't true. If I am good exactly one in nine times, then the EV of calling = 0, which is the same as the EV of folding. If I'm good 1 time in 8, then I lose a fraction of a bet by folding (well the EV of folding is 0 but it would be a fraction of a bet +EV to call). If I'm good 1 time in 10, I lose a fraction of a bet by calling.

If the decision is close either way, I am only losing a fraction of a bet making the wrong decision, regardless of whether it is folding or calling.

[SpaceAce]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you are good one in nine times, you only gain a little by calling but you lose a lot by folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't true. If I am good exactly one in nine times, then the EV of calling = 0, which is the same as the EV of folding. If I'm good 1 time in 8, then I lose a fraction of a bet by folding (well the EV of folding is 0 but it would be a fraction of a bet +EV to call). If I'm good 1 time in 10, I lose a fraction of a bet by calling.

If the decision is close either way, I am only losing a fraction of a bet making the wrong decision, regardless of whether it is folding or calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

My point was that if you are wrong, you lose a whole pot those one in nine times you would have been good and that one pot would be the difference between losing money and not losing money in the long run. If you want to split hairs, though, let's do that: there's no way in hell you're going to be good precisely one time in nine so your EV of 0 is a fantasy, anyway. You're going to end up on one side or the other and if it's close, you should probably call.

SpaceAce

[sublime]

He COULD have TPWK, but he's in the BB so he could also have 2 pair rags. Folding would be on my mind, but that is a leak in my game. I get scared on the river and fold.

I guess a read on this player would be very importants at a time like this. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]

My point was that if you are wrong, you lose a whole pot those one in nine times you would have been good and that one pot would be the difference between losing money and not losing money in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is completely wrong. As Spamuell attempted to explain in his prior answer to you, the difference between calling and folding only comes down to a fraction of one BB in the long run, assuming that the odds of his hand being good are approx. 1 in 9.




[ QUOTE ]
If you want to split hairs, though, let's do that: there's no way in hell you're going to be good precisely one time in nine so your EV of 0 is a fantasy, anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

What Spamuell was suggesting is that the decision between calling and folding is approx. 0 EV if the odds of his hand being good are approx. 1 in 9. The fact that one can never know the exact odds on the river of one's hand being good or not does not negate the concept of attempting to approximate these odds.




[ QUOTE ]
You're going to end up on one side or the other and if it's close, you should probably call

[/ QUOTE ].

If this is your position than you probably just should have said this, rather than floudering around in statistical arguments in which you seemed to be confused.

[Festus22]

Yes, you should call.

Play this exact hand over in your head 9 times. What's the BB going to have each time? K-J? J-2? 3-2? Yeah, you'll probably see these hands in this little exercise and you'll be beat. But I have a hard time imagining that you won't see J-10 or worse AT LEAST once.