Raise with a Gutshot?

Yet another hand that's been bugging me. What's bothering me is probably due to 20/20 hindsight, but I'm wondering if I should have been more aggressive with this one....


6-12, L-P table. I'm on the button. 4 Limpers to me, I check my hole cards. KcQc. Oooh. Big suited connector! Multiway action! On the button! I love being in this position. Raise! SB folds and BB calls, along with the 4 limpers. 6 players, 11SB (After rake & jackpot drop).


Flop comes 6h-As-Js. Ick. All I have is a gutshot. And there's already an ace overcard. And a flush draw. BB checks, UTG bets, one fold, MP calls, CO folds. It's on me. Hmmm... 13-1 in the pot, but I've only got 3 clean outs to the Broadway, meaning about 15-1. And even if I hit, there's the flush re-draw. Marginal. I decide to take one off. Call. BB folds, and 3 of us see the turn, with 14SB = 7BB.


Turn was 8c. That didn't help. UTG bets, MP calls, I fold.


River is another brick (3h). UTG & MP both check. UTG shows 5s6s, and wins with his unimproved pair of sixes. (Never saw what MP had, though I suspect a draw of his own.)


Okay, here's the question. Should I have considered raising the flop? UTG was a new player, and I didn't have a good read on him. I was pretty sure BB was going to fold anyway, and with only 2 other players on the turn, a raise on the flop might have allowed me to do one of two things: 1) take a free card; or 2) bluff if not re-raised on the flop. If UTG re-raised a flop raise, I could have called to see the turn, then folded to a turn bet. I certainly would have had to lay it down if I raised, was called, and then bet into on the turn. (I'd have been getting around 10 - 1 on the turn if UTG & MP both called a flop raise, then UTG bet again and MP called the turn -- either way I would have to lay it down to a turn bet).


Given that I had raised pre-flop, I suspect a flop raise would have led them to believe I was playing a big pair or had just paired my ace. I also had position. Knowing what I know of their hands now, I doubt they could have called a river bet if I had played aggressively on the flop and turn, and the flush didn't get there. (I likewise would have laid it down if a spade hit). But would this have been over-aggressive? I have a tendency to play a bit weak-tight, and I'm trying to pump up the aggression level, though not to the point where I'm a L-A maniac.


Just when is it appropriate to pump it with a gutshot?


Comments?

I really don't like just calling that on the flop. You showed agression already, so a raise here would have them thinking AK or something similiar. I would fire again on the turn if it looks possible to push UTG off his hand. If re-raised on flop, I'd fall back on odds for drawing the broadway.

In order for you to win this hand, you would have to put your opponent a draw or a small pair, then put a raise on the flop and bet on all streets, including the river when your hand has not improved. Given what UTG had there was no way he was folding his hand until the river (and he might have called anyway).


In order to put in a raise on the flop, you need to be sure a re-raise isn't coming back or it just backfires and becomes a mess. I probably would have played it like a little girl. Take one off and muck the turn if I don't improve (i.e. catching a K or Q on the turn counts as improving).


As far as raising on the flop with a gutshot draw, it would be better if the flop came J9x (preferably with 1 or 2 of your suits) that way if a K or Q hits the turn or river you can win that way as well.

I think your thinking is very good, but that hand is not a good hand for that play. If you had more outs (like having AQ with a K flopping, or maybe even if 6h flopped instead of 6c), then it's more of a go.


You want the sum of winning by aggressiveness and by improving to be great enough to be worthwhile. That particular hand's not quite there IMO, because it doesn't have enough out, and, as you pointed out, it's vulnerable to redraws.


The above is assuming you want to play aggressively to win the pot. The other idea was to get a free card. I think that's worth doing in the situation you described if you have good reason to believe it will work. If not, then fold the flop.


If you make the play you want to have firm in mind which way you're going. You correctly pointed out you can do *one* of two things. You've got to know which of the two you're going for, or you'll be like the Karate Kid ("karate no, O.K.; karate yes, O.K.; karate so-so, crushed like grape)

I find that it's appropriate to raise with a gutshot when you either have the button or are likely to buy the button and you are likely to get a free card on the turn should you miss. If it's worth a call to you, you can consider raising.


In your case, the pot was big and I would have taken a shot. If you hadn't raised before the flop then it's easier to just fold.

if memory serves correctly, it should be +EV to raise on the button with KQ suited after a field of limpers.