A busted flush draw

[cold_cash]

I almost broke my arm patting myself on the back after this hand, but I'm still not sure if this was a great play, or just plain stupid. (Part of the reason I'm leaning toward stupid is because I had only been at the table for 2 minutes, and didn't have any idea what kind of opponent I was up against.)

I guess the real question I don't have an answer to is -- What do I do if my opponent bets on the end instead of checking?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero calls, MP3 folds, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero calls, SB folds, UTG folds.

River: (7.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB
<font color="#990066">Main Pot: 9.50 BB, between Hero and UTG+1.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by Hero (9.50 BB).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
UTG+1 shows 9s Qs (high card, king).
Hero shows 3s As (one pair, threes).
Outcome: Hero wins 9.50 BB. </font>

Was the river bet a stupid move? I can't be a favorite to win here if I'm called can I?

[spamuell]

As you paired, I think this is a clear check. I'd check A-high here too figuring you won't get called by a worse hand and a better one is unlikely to fold but you should make a note on this opponent that you can bet A-high for value. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[sfer]

I wouldn't bet the river. A sane player who missed his draw and has a non-hand isn't calling.

Why didn't you raise the flop?

[ZootMurph]

I'm reading a lot of these threads, I think I'm too aggressive.

I'd have raised the flop. Got a nut flush draw. Raise it up.

If it is checked to you on the turn (considering the outcome, it should have been after your flop raise), bet out.

As spamuel said, if people are still in on the river... check.

[Festus22]

"Why didn't you raise the flop?"

Because a bet came from his immediate right and he has several left to act behind. If he raises, all those players will have to face 2 bets cold and will likely fold. By calling, you encourage them to call along and feed your draw. Draws like lots of callers to pay you off when you hit your hand.

[chief444]

In general, there are many times (probably more often than not) when I would raise the flop with the nut flush draw as well. It may buy you the button, clean your overcard outs, get you a free card if desired, etc. However in this case it would make it two bets to 5 opponents left to act. I would just call here as well hoping for many overcalls. Best case with the raise is you still keep a couple of the five in. Worst case is you drive them all out and then get 3-bet in a heads-up situation.

It would be completely different if there were callers between the open bet and you.

I definitely check through the river, especially considering the lack of aggression up to that point and the fact that a blank hit.

[sfer]

I would prefer to clean up the Ace outs to improve your chances of winning. If you get callers you still profit with the best draw. If everyone to your left folds, even better, you can peel off a free one if you don't improve when your odds get cut in half and the bet size doubles. With 89s I agree with calling. With the Ace, I think raising is better.

[sublime]

[ QUOTE ]
Because a bet came from his immediate right and he has several left to act behind. If he raises, all those players will have to face 2 bets cold and will likely fold. By calling, you encourage them to call along and feed your draw. Draws like lots of callers to pay you off when you hit your hand

[/ QUOTE ]

Kinda like the story of Daddy Bull and his son looking from above at all the female cows

Son: Dad, lets run down there and fcuk one
Dad: No son, lets WALK down and fcuk em all.

Good point Festus, one that I often overlook. The "killer" mentality has probably cost me a few BB's....

[ZootMurph]

festus and chief... thanks for the insight. Didn't even consider the possibilities of someone folding... I have a lot of work left on micro-limit play. Glad I came to the 2+2 forums.

[Nottom]

Really this is a very similar situation to the A2s hand in the SS forum where MK advocated a checkraise with just the nut flush draw. I think its close, but would likely go ahead and raise here. Forcing a hand like 55, J7, or A8 out of the pot would be absolutely fantastic for you and the potential for a free turn card is often worth a lost bet or 2 on your draw.

[Festus22]

On the flop, you do NOT have the best hand right now. You DO have the best draw. If you raise and shut out 5 potential callers while you go from 9 to 11 outs, you've tossed some major profit in the trash can.

Looking at it another way, if you call and get 5 overcallers, you're getting 5:1 on a 9-out draw that's 4.2:1 to make on the turn. You're making money even without considering the river or implied odds. Now if you raise and shut them all out and get called by UTG+1, you're getting 1:1 on an 11-out draw that's 3.3:1 to make on the turn. You're losing money. So cleaning up those extra 2 outs by driving out your callers has turned a money making situation into a money losing one.

[Festus22]

I have FIVE potential callers here. I have the nut draw. I think this is one of those cases where are you trying to win the most pots (and lower variance) or the most money (and have a higher variance)? If it's pots, raise. If it's money, go for overcallers. I know astroglide et al have had this exact discussion on the mid/high stakes forum on a number of hands where a situation like this comes up. It usually resolves as a agree-to-disagree thing.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
On the flop, you do NOT have the best hand right now. You DO have the best draw. If you raise and shut out 5 potential callers while you go from 9 to 11 outs, you've tossed some major profit in the trash can.


[/ QUOTE ]

Am I the only one that finds it a bit ironic that he most likely did indeed have the best hand?

[blackaces13]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I the only one that finds it a bit ironic that he most likely did indeed have the best hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think hero can even entertain the thought that his A high is the best hand with 7 players to the flop.

[cold_cash]

With that many callers, I naturally assumed the flop hit someone. (I guess that goes to show that assuming things isn't always a good idea.)

I think if I had to play it again I might raise for the reasons Nottom gave, but I'm still not positive.

The funny thing is, if I'm in this situation and hold 2 overcards instead of 1, I raise 99% of the time.

Is there a flaw in my thinking that there's that big of a difference between those two situations?

I'm going to go hunt for the post you guys were talking about.

[chief444]

Yes, there is a considerable difference between the two situations, IMO. With two overcards you have a decent kicker if one hits so your outs are cleaner yet. In this situation you had one overcard ace with no kicker. Raising in your example wouldn't have made me feel too optimistic if another ace hit but no flush. But in general raising is an even better play if you hold both the flush draw and overcards.

I would also have never even considered that I had the best hand on the flop against 7 opponents. Even if I thought Ace high was best it is still safe to assume that you need to improve to win against so many so IMO that is not a consideration.

[MortalNuts]

[ QUOTE ]
On the flop, you do NOT have the best hand right now. You DO have the best draw. If you raise and shut out 5 potential callers while you go from 9 to 11 outs, you've tossed some major profit in the trash can.

Looking at it another way, if you call and get 5 overcallers, you're getting 5:1 on a 9-out draw that's 4.2:1 to make on the turn. You're making money even without considering the river or implied odds. Now if you raise and shut them all out and get called by UTG+1, you're getting 1:1 on an 11-out draw that's 3.3:1 to make on the turn. You're losing money. So cleaning up those extra 2 outs by driving out your callers has turned a money making situation into a money losing one.

[/ QUOTE ]


hey Festus --

You're raising excellent points in this thread, and I don't think this is a super clear-cut situation or anything, but we both know it's not anywhere near as simple as this.

The reality, as I'm sure you realize, is somewhere between these two extremes: one, in which everyone would've called one bet, and another in which your raise drives everyone but the original bettor out. The thing is, in real life it's pretty likely that not everyone was going to call behind you if you just called; it's also pretty likely that not everyone is going to fold if you raise. Typically someone is going to like this flop well enough to call two bets (or even 3-bet) -- whether that's top pair, middle pair, a lower flush draw, whatever; also, typically there's at least one or two people who weren't going to call no matter what. The balance between these -- how many people are likely to call two, how many would've called one -- depends a lot on who you're playing and the exact texture of the board, and is certainly not trivial to figure out.

Anyway, I'll just say this: I would still raise a decent chunk of the time in this spot. If there had been even one caller between me and the initial bettor, I would pretty much always raise.

just my 2c.

-mn

[chief444]

Obviously this is no where near clear cut, I agree. It is a relatively close call and either calling or raising is slightly better. If the game is extremely loose raising may be better anyway.

I also agree that even one caller between would make a difference.

One thing I wanted to point out though that I consider in a situation like this is that your implied odds increase with more people in the pot. I'm not thinking of how can I get the absolute most money in the pot on this round of betting. I'm thinking of how I can make the most money on this hand if I hit my flush. But you're absolutely right that there is no simple way of looking at this.