I go to show down 39% of the time... help me fix this leak.

[Oblivious]

Yes, i feel like a sucker. I go to showdown 39% of the time. I have an even higher percentage at specific limits. It seems to me that most of the time its on hands like these.



Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Oblivious is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="CC3333">Oblivious raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, <font color="CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, Oblivious calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
Oblivious checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="CC3333">Oblivious raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, CO calls, Oblivious calls.

I wanted to see if he realy had an overpair... this is a pretty crap play i think, since he knows I raised preflop and with a board like this the best I can have myself is an overpair.

Turn: (9.75 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
Oblivious checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, CO folds, Oblivious calls.

The pot is big, and I want to hit an overcard.

River: (11.75 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Oblivious checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Oblivious folds.

So I didnt showdown this time, but should I have? Some times I do and it feels like im leaking.

Final Pot: 12.75 BB
<font color="#990066">Main Pot: 11.75 BB, won by MP2.</font>
<font color="#990066">Pot 2: 1 BB, overbet by MP2.</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
MP2 doesn't show.
Outcome: MP2 wins 12.75 BB. </font>

[jasonHoldEm]

I think this problem is based on the thinking "It's only one more bet, I should call just in case" Sometimes that's the correct thing to do, but many other times you probably should have folded before you get to that decision (i.e. flop, turn). So my non-expert opinion is that your leak is actually occuring earlier in the hand and that is where you should focus your attention. By making some better folds earlier your showdown percentage problem will probably fix itself.

jHE

[Joe826]

What's considered a reasonable showdown rate? I go around 32% of the time. How often do you win money?

[Saborion]

Your post-flop play was awful (coming from a person that sucks himself). I raise with AQ all the time, but if I'm 3-bet, I become a bit cautious since most players wouldn't 3-bet without a pocket pair or AK. So even if you do hit your A, you might lose.

[Haupt_234]

You tried the c/r to be tricky, but he 3-bet.

He obviously had a solid hand, one that has a good chance of beating you even if you do hit one of your overcards.

Easy fold in that situation.

Haupt_234

[BaronVonCP]

I fold to the flop bet. If I try to make a play and he 3 bets, I fold.

This all changes if I know the player to have maniacal tendencies.

[MaxPower]

Raising for information is a no-no. If you bet out on the flop at least he has the chance to fold in addition to getting your information.

I don't think it is weak tight to check-fold the flop.

[LetsRock]

This is one of the reasons I have stopped raising AK,AQ from EP - I feel commited to backing up my raise with more bets on later streets. I find that I miss few bets by not raising, since the surprise factor I have by not raising with this strong hand gets paid off on later streets.

Flop: Look at the overall situation - MP 3-bet you (probably a better sarter than you) and CO cold calls 3 preflop. This board doesn't help you at all. If I had raised preflop, I'd bet out and probably fold to a raise. Not raising pre-flop, it's pretty easy to check fold this. What cards do you need to probably win this hand at showdown? At this point you could be drawing dead and perfect-perfect AA or QQ might result in a chop. Unless you are playing against 2 complete maniacs, it's really hard to imagine being ahead here or imagine a like scenario where you get ahead.

Even given the way you played it (OK you made a play at the pot), when CO again calls 2 cold, you have to get the feeling that you're being both players. Fold to the flop 3-bet.

There is no shame in folding. If you do it all the time, you'll get run-over, but when you really have very little chance of being best, it's +EV to fold. A bet saved = a bet won.

Turn: OK so you really want to see the turn. You call the flop 3-bet and you do have a backdoor shot at the nut flush. (I'm giving you every benefit of the doubt here and trying to find a way that I might have justified my playing the hand this way.) You missed again. Just fold. Chasing overcards here is really fishy.

Want to improve your showdown stats? Don't get to showdown without a hand unless you're making a play - make fewer plays.

[Rico Suave]

Hey Let's Rock:


[ QUOTE ]
This is one of the reasons I have stopped raising AK,AQ from EP - I feel commited to backing up my raise with more bets on later streets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Say it ain't so! /images/graemlins/blush.gif

You just gotta raise these hands from ep.

--Rico

[LetsRock]

Sorry to disappoint you, but this is what works for me. It's not an always, mind you, but usually.

Too many people will call you down with as little as bottom pair when the board doesn't bring an A, K Q. If you don't bet out on the flop (like you have a pair), they start coming at you. If you do, there's no place to stop. If I'm going to chk/fold or bet/fold, I wouldn't have raised to begin with.

Any preflop bets I may lose, are more than made up for with a great flop because "everyone raises AQ, AK" so it's very well disquised.

Just my take.

[bisonbison]

This:

If you don't bet out on the flop (like you have a pair), they start coming at you. If you do, there's no place to stop. If I'm going to chk/fold or bet/fold, I wouldn't have raised to begin with.

Does not compute with this:

There is no shame in folding. If you do it all the time, you'll get run-over, but when you really have very little chance of being best, it's +EV to fold. A bet saved = a bet won.

AK is really good preflop. Sometimes it hits, sometimes it misses, but you are giving up a ton when you fail to raise it preflop. You have to dump TT a lot when overcards fall and there's action, but it's still right to raise it.

Find the place to stop.

[LetsRock]

I didn't say it was "correct", I'm only stating what I've found to be "true" for me. It's much easier to muck AK/AQ if I havn't raised it. I have nothing to represent.

In later position, you have a much better chance of taking a free card if you need it - in EP it's almost impossible. And if you do hang around (calling down the attackers), you won't get any action if your Ace hits the board unless you're beat.

I used to prefer raising AK/AQ from EP, but have since started to look at it as a very good drawing hand that I can limp from EP. I don't want to knock everyone out - I prefer to have some people in and catch them by surprise if I hit the flop.

Things I have witnessed about raising (especially from EP):
-If an ace (sometimes K or Q) hits the board, you're going to get very little action if you've raised, unless it hits someone else.
- If the flop comes rags, they seem to assume you have AK/AQ and will call you down with any pair or fold. Very little in between. Results: lose medium/big pots, win small ones.

It also depends on what cards I've been getting and my table image. If they've seen me limp with AK/AQ, then I'll mix it up with a reaise. If they've only seen my raise with PP, then I'll mix in a raise with a big A, or KQ. If I've had enough AK/AQ hands to raise and play them differently (fast/slow) then I'm more inclined to raise since they've seen me back off so a bet on a rag flop will carry more respect.

But if I havn't been showing any aggression (because the cards have been so ugly), then I prefer to raise with big PPs and let the AK/AQ hands sort themselves out after limping.

I'm NOT saying this is how everyone should play AK/AQ, just sharing what works for me.

[MicroBob]

i think it's okay to do this if you have a read on your table that they are THAT passive.
but making this a general policy strikes me as -ev in the long run.

the key is being able to let go of them....this is something that i can speak about with authority as it would appear i am leaking dough with these hands.

my small sample -
20k hds with 8-10 players (1/2 and 2/4) (i filtered out all the short-table hds) -
i don't like these numbers one little bit....but with such a small sample it's hard to call it a leak.....but i suspect i'm taking my PFR too far and trying to induce folds that aren't going to come.
the scary thing is, even with leaks like this, you can still be a winning player. the question is how much more I could win if/when i plug these holes successfully.



AKs UTG through UTG+2 - hds 32, PFR 90.6 , win% 40.6 , WtSD 38.7, W$SD 41.6, $18.00

AKo UTG through UTG+2 - hds 76, PFR 89.4, win% 44.7, WtSD 44.5, W$SD, 39.3, ($59.50)

AQs UTG through UTG+2 - hds 33, PFR 93.9, win% 33.3, WtSD 53.3, W$SD 41.8, ($11.50)

AQo UTG through UTG+2 - hds 80, PFR 80.0, win% 38.7, WtSD 37.9, W$SD 50.0, $9.00

[MaxPower]

Well, I raise AK, AKs, AQ, and AQs every time in early position. I just looked at my stats and I am winning with these hands 61% of the time at 3/6 in early position (35,000 hands, i've had these hands 187 times). So either I am the luckiest sumbitch alive or I'm doing something right.

I don't think I would be doing that well with these hands if I limped in pre-flop. I suggest both you guys post some of these hands where you miss the flop. You may not be playing them optimally.