OESD... How's my flop play???

[Raiser]

MP2 is very aggressive. Others are standard calling stations.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO folds, <font color="CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, SB folds, BB folds, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls, MP1 calls, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="CC3333">MP2 caps</font>, Button calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls.



I figure I've got 4 outs to the nuts, and 4 more to the likely best hand. 2 of those could be "dirty" outs, especially with MP1 calling, calling, calling.

Thoughts?

[Joe Tall]

I think you're wasting money playing the flop like this for the very reason that MP2 may cap (as the read you have is over-aggressive) and your all your outs may not be clean.

Calling MP2 check-raise is the correct play.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[sthief09]

I figure I've got 4 outs to the nuts

you have 3 outs to the nuts

if you're going to do something aggressive, bet out the flop. the check-call-3bet move doesn't do anything good but jam a pot where you essentially have nothing. even if a K of the right suit falls on the turn, there are a lot of potential very, very good redraws out there, like a 9 out flush draw, or a 10 out set-to-boat draw

[StellarWind]

You underestimate the problems with your outs. MP1 is likely on a draw. If he has a flush draw that kills two outs and taints all of the rest with a redraw. He could instead have a queen which halves four of your outs.

Now consider what MP2 could have:

1. Set - ten redraws to a full house
2. KQ straight - kills five outs, redraws to a tie against the other three
3. Flush draw - see above
4. Two pair - four redraws to a full house

Of course Button also has a hand. Almost any hand I could make up for him except AA kills outs or creates serious redraws.

If you think MP2 is a good player I would note that by checkraising instead of betting he is playing this for the bets and not the folds. That would mean either a big hand or a strong draw.

[kiemo]

What are you trying to accomplish with the 3 bet that you couldn't do with a check-raise?

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
What are you trying to accomplish with the 3 bet that you couldn't do with a check-raise?

[/ QUOTE ]
If you actually had a nice collection of redraw-proof nut outs, you could call the bet to encourage overcalls and then 3-bet to build the pot now that everyone has put money in.

It's worth remembering that when a decent player bets like this he is virtually always on a pure draw.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
If you actually had a nice collection of redraw-proof nut outs

[/ QUOTE ]


is there such thing as a redraw-proof nut out? I guess just a one-out 4 of a kind draw or a 1 or 2 outs to a straight flush.

but my point is that based on your logic, every OESD and flush draw on the flop should be discredited because opponents have a redraw

[Raiser]

Hmmm, looks like I butchered this one.

The redraw concept is one that I need to consider more in my play. Thanks for pointing out that error in this hand. One of these days, I might start to understand this game /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[StellarWind]

Let's not quibble over words. I merely intended to emphasize that one needs a strong draw to play this way and in this case the OESD is not a strong draw because of major problems with out quality due to not being the nuts, ties, and redraws.

There are lots of deals where a flush or straight draw is overwhelmingly probable to win if it hits. You don't need a mathematical certainty for betting purposes.

[chief444]

I agree with the other posts that you need a better draw in order to ram&amp;jam the pot like that on the flop.

My other question is would anyone else cap pf? I would feel more comfortable doing it with A-K suited or better but I would at least consider capping with two callers in between you and the other raiser. Even if you are behind the button it still may be a +EV play. Also given the buttons situation (you and two callers with position) I don't think his pf reraise necessarily means you are behind, although it is likely. Just a thought.

[StellarWind]

Against many passive players the reraise of your AQ means you are dominated (AA, KK, QQ, AK). The next step down the ladder consists of hands with a small advantage over you (AQ* and 88-JJ). Plus you are out-of-position. [*Technically AQ is equal, but he has position and it's awful to have a duplicate hand in a multiway pot.]

I wouldn't touch a cap with a 10' pole.

[chief444]

I agree that this depends mainly on your read of the button in this position. Out of position with the given read (calling station) I definitely agree. I didn't go back and check what he posted about the read before my reply. I was just curious in general if anyone would make that play. If I had a different read on the button (as a fairly loose, aggressive player) I would cap. If I didn't think the button would reraise without a hand that dominates mine then I call one and more and likely am check/folding the flop unless I catch something nice (better than one pair). If I don't have a good read or have no read at all then I also call one more.