middle pair multiway against a maniac

[crockpot]

3/6 game. table is mostly decent players except for one loosie and a semi-maniac who doesn't play every hand, but plays very aggressively with and hand or draw when he is in.

i get A /images/graemlins/spade.gifQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif in middle position. maniac raises, i 3-bet, decent player behind me caps, another decnt player cold calls four. everyone else folds but me and the maniac.

flop: K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif. maniac bets into me. if anyone behind me has a good hand, i'm going for a three or four bet ride here and maybe on the turn. what now?

[nothumb]

Ok, you're against three relatively thinking players (the maniac is a maniac but you imply he does have some hand selection) so what could they be holding? You have second pair with a runner-runner straight draw. Someone is likely to have at least a K. There might be an AK out there, in which case you're REALLY in trouble. All of your outs at this point are suspect - someone could be holding 2 pair with queens, and your third queen fills them up. Any ace could make a straight and the ace of diamonds makes a flush as well. I don't think this is a hand you can go to war with.

You could call the bet from the maniac and hope there's not a raise; if there is, you're definitely done. Even if there's not, you have to be worried, as it's almost impossible that this flop completely missed three other hands worth 4 bets each. Even though the pot is huge your odds are pretty thin here.

I'd say if you called the one bet and see the turn (this would be a miracle) you would need a non-flush A or another Q to continue, and even then you would be scared. I pull up my skirt and fold here.

[EDIT] Reasonable four-bet hands here, and whether you are ahead of them:

Maniac could have AA-88, AKs thru 9-10s, AKo, KQo, Ax suited, AJo or A10o, maybe a few others.

Decent players probably have AA-JJ, AKo, AKs, AQs, KQs?, maybe a few others.

Of these you are ahead of only JJ for the decent players, plus AJ, A10, 10-10, 99, 88, and lower connectors for the maniac. If you end up facing two or three players here (which seems possible) then there are way more cards that hurt you than help you, and a brick is bad for you as well since you're most likely behind. This is why I muck.]

Am I just being a paranoid sissy here? I don't like this situation at all. Fire away if you disagree.

[joker122]

Easy fold, IMO.

[Chaos_ult]

I agree completely. Even if you do decide to continue, you'll never really know where you're at. Fold.

Matt

[crockpot]

well, i folded. i felt a lot better when it got raised and re-raised behind me. (as it would turn out, the best hand on the flop was QJ, but i still know i would have folded to the flop action, even if i had called one bet. the capper mucked to the river bet, so i suspect he had 88-TT. the maniac took his A5s to a showdown.)

i should have said more about the maniac: he did exercise some hand selection, but raised preflop with any suited ace and some other very questionable hands. however, since he would pump the pot with any draw, and he was a favorite to hold two big cards here, the possibility of facing many bets was what prompted me to fold.

anyway, thanks for the thoughts, i'll have more confidence when i encounter this situation again.

[Joe Tall]

You sure to be trapped on this flop in a raising war. If the player behind you has any sense, he's sure to raise this flop.

I'd fold it here and get out of the way.

Is that Carlos Zambrano?

Peace,
Joe Tall

[CrackerZack]

I'm done with this hand. Add a backdoor draw, maybe not, but like this, I'm done.