AA hand - will it win with a flopraise ? Maybe combined with turnbet ?

[Thomsen]

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Thomsen is UTG+1 with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, Thomsen raises, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button folds, SB 3-bets, BB folds, UTG folds, Thomsen caps, MP3 calls, SB calls. I was surprised that he 3 bet me, cause i noted him as tight and i thought that he perhaps would think the same of me. Now I think that he perhaps has AK suited, AA or KK.

Flop: (14 SB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB bets, Thomsen calls, MP3 calls. Bets out ? Is this a tester so I shall raise it or is it because he had the KK ? Who raises here ? All of you ?

Turn: (8.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Thomsen checks, MP3 checks. Weakness ? Or inducing a bet ? I am weak tight dammmit /images/graemlins/confused.gif

River: (8.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB bets, Thomsen calls, MP3 folds. He bets out - hmmm i am dead or at least i am dead to the caller behind me (so why dont i fold ?) Well....cause I am greedy and greed works or what ?

Final Pot: 10.50 BB

After the hand I have been thinking about it - probably the only point where i could have bet him out (he had JJ) was on the flop....Can anyone give some insight as to how likely it is that i can get JJ that bets out to fold on this flop ? I know it is playerdependent but anyways. How often will it have to succeed to be the right play ?

[me454555]

WEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAKKKKKKKKKKKKKK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 1

PF: played fine
Flop: You gotta raise that. There are many more hands that he will 3 bet pf with that your ahead of. Even if you narrow down the hands he's got to AK, AA, and KK. Hes still an 8:7 favorite to have AK vs AA or KK.

The second reason your gotta raise it is b/c theres plenty of good draws for MP3 to have that you want to charge him for. There's 2 suited cards on the board and he could have been calling w/a flush draw or QJ or AQ, AJ for the strait draw as well.

Turn: He checks, and you check behind? Why? Were you afraid of a checkraise? No reason to think he will c/r you if you do bet. The check on the turn tells me he doesn't have KK b/c he'd probobly bet out there given the 2 flush on the board. If you do get c/red, you can fold w/confidence. Again, you don't wanna give a free card on the turn to the MP b/c hes probobly got some sort of a draw.

River: You almost have to call here b/c you've played so weak on the last 2 streets. MPs fold tells me he probobly missed his flush draw but SB can have almost anything here.

My read: You won the hand b/c he had AK, next guess, he drew out on ya w/QQ.

Hope this helps /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[bisonbison]

You don't want him to fold JJ on the flop. You want him to call as many bets as possible. He has 2 outs (and the runner runner straight) to beat you.

And you still want to get it heads up if possible. Raise the flop.