Just a general question, care to wager a guess?

[blackaces13]

What % of times that there is a 3 flush on the board in Party .5/1 does someone have the flush? I suppose we can have 2 different answers for two toned flops as opposed to backdoor flushes. Anyone's guess is appreciated and if anyone with a lot of data on Poker tracker or something could somehow maybe get a hard # that would be great.

My intuition tells me its in the neighborhood of 50% or more and I think my guess is higher than what most other people will say. I say if the flush hits the board then more often than not someone has it, it is to be feared and feared greatly. I'll slow down with a set when it happens, I'll call a bet rather than raise on the river.

[scotnt73]

depends on how many see the flop. if its 3 or less im not giving anyone credit for it until they reraise me then ill still call them down.

[Sam T.]

I could be wrong, but 50% sounds really high to me. The odds of someone having two suited cards is around 1 in 4, so at a full table you'll have 2-3 people with suited hands. The odds of suited cards flopping two more are 12:1, so you're looking at four flushes on the flop no more than 25% of the time, and that's assuming that all suited hands see the flop.

But I was a history major, so what do I know about math?

[BugsBunny]

With a 3 flush on board and you not having any of the flush cards in your hand there's approximately a 4.2% (a little less) chance that any 1 player has the flush - assuming they play any 2 suited.

So at a full ring (10 players) where *everyone* (other than you) plays "any 2 suited" that means 9 players so about a 37.5% chance that someone has the flush.

If you have one of the flush cards then the chances go down to 3.3% per player or about 30% total (given the above scenario).

Since, in practice, you probably won't be at a table where *everyone* plays any suited the chances are actually smaller than that.

Edit: The above refers to a 3 flush on the flop. If the 3 flush comes on the turn then the odds are 4.3%/player with no flush card in your hand and 3.5%/player if you do have 1 flush card in hand. If it comes on the river the odds go to 4.5% and 3.6% respectively.

[blackaces13]

[ QUOTE ]
The odds of someone having two suited cards is around 1 in 4, so at a full table you'll have 2-3 people with suited hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm with you up until here, but then you get fuzzy. If 2-3 people have suited cards that would mean that if a flush hits there is a 50-75% chance that some one has it right?

Well, not really I guess since there's no guaranteee that people don't have the suited cards of the same suit. So I'll be fuzzy and say that the times people with suited cards have the same suit can be balanced out by saying that instead of 2-3 we'll say that on average exactly 2 players have suited cards of different suits and won't fold.

This leads to a number of 50% if we further assume that the general distribution of the suits of the dealt cards to all 10 players was roughly proportional, meaning 5 cards avg of each suit for the 20 cards dealt.

So here we can clearly see that merely using several convoluted, unscientific, and extremely oversimplified assumptions which I'm not even sure I understand, we arrive at my figure of 50%. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Oh well, I guess that's why I asked the question. Please disregard everything I wrote, I already have.

[el_grande]

You also might want to take into account the fact that there are players who will not play any two suited cards from any position.