MLB 4/5

[Homer]

I'm going to try my hand at betting baseball. Here are a couple bets I like today:

Pirates +138 (Wells/Millwood)

Cubs/Reds U8.5 +100

Good luck...

-- Homer

[scalf]

/images/graemlins/frown.gif i am not sure how the buccos will score, but i am not betting against pirates money line, i am betting under; gl

/images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/club.gif

[Homer]

YTD 1-1 (0 units)

BTW, I failed to mention this in my initial post, but I'm going to bet an amount on each game such that my win will be $20 (i.e. - if I'm betting a team at +200, I'll bet $10 and if I'm betting a team at -150, I'll bet $30), so I guess my unit size is $20 (yup, I'm a high roller). Also, I'm only using two books (Pinnacle/Intertops), so I won't be getting the best lines for some bets. If I enjoy doing this and don't suck, I'll add more books as the season progresses.

Today's picks, thus far:

Montreal +151 (Hernandez/Beckett)

Colorado +211 (Estes/Johnson)

Colorado/Arizona 8.5o -104

Tampa Bay +188 (Zambrano/Mussina) & Tampa Bay +1.5 +118 (Half a unit on each)

Detroit +181 (Maroth/Batista)

I might add Baltimore, Minnesota and/or NY Mets based on how lines move.

-- Homer

[mrbaseball]

The best way to keep score (other than actual money!) is by units. So if you bet a -150 game and win, you would win one unit. If you bet the -150 game and lost you would lose 1.5 units.

Conversely if you lost a +150 wager you would lose one unit and if you won a +150 wager you would win 1.5 units.

I don't typically adjust my wager size for the line or if I'm on the plus or minus side. I will bet stronger on stuff that offers bigger edges and smaller on stuff I feel has smaller edges. But I do like to bet all edges I see /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I almost always bet the doggies though. The favorites historically get over bet giving most of the edge to the mutts. It would appear that you are of the same school of thought so far judging by your picks. I'm with you on TB for sure and perhaps a few more. The dogs were definitely barking yesterday /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Homer]

I almost always bet the doggies though. The favorites historically get over bet giving most of the edge to the mutts. It would appear that you are of the same school of thought so far judging by your picks. I'm with you on TB for sure and perhaps a few more. The dogs were definitely barking yesterday

So far, I'm definitely liking the underdogs more than the favorites. The only favorite I'm thinking about betting today is Minnesota, and even that one I'm not sure about. Of course, I'm really not sure about any of my picks, since I have no clue what I'm doing. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[Homer]

Texas +195
Baltimore +180

-- Homer

[jerome baker]

since you call yourself mr.baseball why not post your daily picks. i would love to follow them. =)

[mrbaseball]

I post picks (and analysis!) ocassionally. I don't like just posting picks without the thought process behind it. But the thought process is often lengthy and time consuming to type out. Hence you won't see my picks on a daily basis.

But time permitting I will post some analysis when I feel I have uncovered an interesting angle on a game worthy of discussion.

It's pretty early in the season to feel real comfortable yet and takes a few weeks to see how certain players and teams are playing. Right now I'm just playing a few +1.5 runlines at even money or better. Always a good chance if you ask me /images/graemlins/smile.gif

But as the season progresses I hope to be involved in a lot of meaningful baseball discussion here.

[Thythe]

I'm definitely way into baseball betting this season and I also hope we can find some nice bets and have meaningful discussions. For now I'm doing the same betting a bunch of +1.5 dogs and a good amount of the overs which seem to be going well so far.

[Ashe]

the overs are killing now...
got em all for the second day

[Homer]

I added San Francisco and NY Mets late yesterday, but didn't post them here, so maybe they shouldn't count towards my record. Ahh, the hell with it, they count, since I'm basically talking to myself here anyway.

YTD 7-5 +2.48u

Today's picks...

Pittsburgh +1.5 -123 (I like this more than the +134 moneyline, because I think this will be a one run game quite often)

San Francisco +168

Milwaukee +185

Colorado +173

Texas +216

Cincinnati +156

Detroit +156

Baltimore +153

Tampa Bay +230 & Tampa Bay +1.5 +140 (1 full unit on each of these, so 2 units total on this game)

-- Homer

[Chris Daddy Cool]

Houston's pounding SF right now 4-0...

[Homer]

My other picks are doing alright so far, though. Milwaukee is tied, Texas won (+216), Cincinnati is up 3-0, Detroit is up 6-3, Pittsburgh is down 3-2 (I went with +1.5 so they're covering right now) and my Tampa Bay picks split, so I made a few bucks there. Baltimore is down big, though, which sucks for me.

-- Homer

[Homer]

YTD 12-10 +4.68u

Early picks for 4/8...

Reds +161

Pirates +154 & Pirates +1.5 -111 (1/2 unit each)

White Sox +221

Indians +147

-- Homer

[Chris Daddy Cool]

Sorry Homer, I'm going against you on the Sox/Yankees. Watch out for Vasquez, he's going to have a great year.

I'm also against you with the Phillies/Pirates game.

Hopefully I won't look like an idiot. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

GL tommorow.

- Chris

[Homer]

Sorry Homer, I'm going against you on the Sox/Yankees. Watch out for Vasquez, he's going to have a great year.

I'm also against you with the Phillies/Pirates game.

Hopefully I won't look like an idiot.

It's more likely that it will be the other way around. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[mrbaseball]

Are the Yankees better than the White Sox? Probably. Is Vasquez better than Schonweis? Probably. Do the Yankees have a better chance of winning today? Probably. Will the Yankees win this matchup often enough at THIS price to be profitable over the long term? Probably not /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[scalf]

/images/graemlins/grin.gif hey; ir you're gonna run a thread for more than one day; why not label it as such??

i.e. bb pix week of 4/5..etc..

gl..nice pix /images/graemlins/cool.gif /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[Homer]

I didn't start out planning to post each day, and once I did it was too late to change the title of the thread. Next week I'll start a new thread with an appropriate title.

[Homer]

Detroit +107

- Detroit swept Toronto, and looked impressive in doing so.

- This is the home opener for Detroit, so they will be playing in front of a big crowd and will play an inspired game. The crowd will be into it because they won ~45 games last year and are 3-0 this year.

- Minnesota's bullpen pitched 21 innings against Cleveland, thanks to two extra-inning games and a blowout.

- Minnesota's starter, Carlos Silva, has only started one game in his career and has pitched ~85 innings in each of the last two seasons.

What do you think?

-- Homer

[Ashe]

I like... thanks

[Thythe]

I like Detroit in this one too, but I don't think it's going to be profitable at only double your money when betting on the money line. On the other hand, I've bet the over 3 days in a row for Min v Cle and won every day. Min v Detroit is an even better buy on the over and at over 9 it's a steal. As long as it stays around 9 I'll be betting the over every day of the series on this one.

[Homer]

I'm not sure why I didn't look at betting the over, considering my thought process about the Twins pen being tired (is it possible for a pen to be tired three days into the season) and the likelihood of them having to use the pen early again today, given that Silva has only ever started one game. Anyhoo, I put in a bet on over 9.

For some reason I have no feel for the O/U bets.

-- Homer

[Thythe]

I've been making a killing on the over/under bets in the last few days. Most of the time the overs are at 8.5, 9.5 or 10.5 and I think that most American League teams have a great chance on the over. The National League seems to be more suited for the under. Anyway, I like most of your picks. I missed out on Chicago as I got up too late /images/graemlins/frown.gif but oh well. I'm going with over on Min v Det (over 9), Sea v Ana (over 8.5), and I'm taking the points with the Pirates. Good luck all.

[mikelow]

[Homer]

I have a feeling if I do this, people will bitch at me for clogging up the forum. If this won't happen, then I'd be fine making a separate post each day.

[Thythe]

I think it will be fine, one thread per MLB day.

[Homer]

Tigers have scored 9 runs in the 6th and 7th, absolutely tearing up the Twins pen. Aww yeah!

[Thythe]

Works for me, that Over is killer, won 4 days in a row now.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

I was all over that Tigers game like white on rice.

BTW, Homer, Yankees won. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Homer]

BTW, Homer, Yankees won.

Geesh, I go 6-1 today and this is what I get! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Thythe]

Nice Homer, I went 2-1 which I have every day for the last week or so which puts me up about 6 units now. Can't wait for tomorrow.