Are they really that bad?

[Diplomatdcm]

Ok so i am going through a downswing in the party 5-10 short game and as could be expected i have been getting "bad beat" a lot recently. It does not really bother me because i figure the other players are making huge mistakes which are making me lots of money in the long run. But then I got to thinking are their plays really that bad, things like calling down/calling with 2nd pair etc.? I am really gaining anything from them or are they correctly chasing.
I will give you an example and
6 handed I am UTG with JJ I raise CO, button and BB call.
Flop is 983r
I bet, CO calls, button raises, BB calls I 3 bet, all Call. Turn is an off suit 4 completing the rainbow,
BB checks I bet CO calls Button calls BB folds
River is a Q I bet CO folds button raises I call he wins with Q9o. I give this example not as a bad beat story but rather to ask was his play that bad, prelfop it appears he made a bad play but on the flop and turn he had 5 outs, and the pot ended up being around 130, so it looks like his was getting about correct odds(implied odds that is), right or wrong? How far or close to optimal did he play this hand? Did I gain from his play? Thanks

[Gramps]

Those situations tend to sting the most, when you have an overpair in a big multiway pot and get rivered (or "Turned"). Probably a lot of outs "out" against you, it's going to happen a lot in that situation. Take solace in the fact that with 4 people paying 3 bets each on the flop, you were probably around a 50% favorite or so(depending on what the other players had, of course), so you came out ahead in the long run there.

Yeah, button probably played it right postflop - and even if he knew he was up against an overpair, he had proper odds to call your 3-bet and Turn bet. That huge pot was laying him some pretty good odds. 12 BB when it got to him on the Turn, he had 8.2:1 to spike a Queen or 9.

When you're running good, you win most of those pots. When you're running bad...you lose most of those pots. High variance game.

[sam h]

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Take solace in the fact that with 4 people paying 3 bets each on the flop, you were probably around a 50% favorite or so(depending on what the other players had, of course), so you came out ahead in the long run there.


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Hard to construct too many situations in which jacks have this much equity preflop fourhanded against Q9o and two other hands. Even if both other hands are underpairs, you're only getting 46%, and most of the time they won't be.

[Ulysses]

This is the reason why, against even complete idiots, there's only so much you can make at poker. The edges just aren't that big.

[Gramps]

On the flop (of 9-8-3 rainbow). There are a lot of scenarios you can create (especially against bad opponents) where JJ is > 50% on that 9-8-3 rainbow. Obviously, pre-flop it isn't as much of an advantage.

[rtrombone]

Postflop, your opponent played fine. He hit a 5-outer. These are so standard that you can't even consider them bad beats. Notice that his postflop play is also correct if you had AA or KK.

Preflop, though, his play is horrendous. People like to say that you can't make too big of a mistake preflop, but this is absolutely incorrect. Preflop, he's drawing to 3 outs against you. What if you have AA or KK? He loses big-time in the long run putting in two bets with Q9 offsuit. And if you have AQ, QQ or 99 he's in an even bigger world of hurt.

What we must not forget is that the outs we think we have aren't always there. How many times will a queen or nine be dead because it's in someone else's hand or the muck? You have no such worries, as your hand is already made.

There will be lots of hands where he plays "perfectly" postflop by mucking for one bet (e.g., the flop comes A 6 2 rainbow). Don't discount the two small bets you made from this dumbass preflop. In the long run, those bets add up.