Matt vs. Mike - Round 2 (5-10 PLHE)

[ML4L]

Hey all,

Still quite proud of myself for winning Round 1, a few minutes later, I found myself in another big hand against Matt Flynn (tough, agressive player, for those who aren't familiar...). I promise that this one is a little more interesting than the first one.

5-handed, 5-10 PLHE. UTG ($800; loose as hell to begin with, and even more so today) makes it $20 to go. Matt ($2000) calls on the button; this could be any playable hand (and a couple non-playable ones too... /images/graemlins/grin.gif). I ($2000) call in the SB with 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif6 /images/graemlins/club.gif. BB calls; $80 in the pot, 4 to the flop, which comes:

T /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I check, BB checks, UTG bets $75, Matt calls, I raise to $375, BB folds, UTG folds, Matt thinks for a little bit and then asks me to pick a number between 1 and 6. I say 6 and think to myself how clever I am because I have a set of sixes... Matt immediately raises $600 more.

$1505 in the pot; $1500 remaining in each of our stacks.


Before anyone responds, I feel that image is a HUGE factor in this hand. Matt knows that I am very tight; thus, I'm not going to put in large sums of money (either my raise or calling his reraise) without a huge hand. He also knows that I will lay down some VERY good hands to this reraise and knows that I might have trouble making a good decision for that sum of money. That having been said, he knows that I see him as being loose-aggressive.

So, GIVEN THAT INFORMATION, what now? Against some players, this is a clear fold; against others, a clear reraise. But, I'm not so sure against Matt...

All comments appreciated.

ML4L

[Matt Flynn]

After the $600 raise and before he acted, Mike asked what would have happened if he'd said 1, because $100 wasn't enough to raise. I told him I would've just called. A small digestion period then occurred.

Matt

[turnipmonster]

Mike,
I am still thinking about the meat of the hand, but just wanted to comment that on the flop I prefer leading out with a set on a board like this (particularly if you expect matt to make a play for the pot), because of the loose player in between you and matt.

maybe this is just me, my checkraises get a little too much respect on a board like this in my game. is there a reason why you checkraised as opposed to leading and going for the reraise?

--turnipmonster

[turnipmonster]

more thoughts/me thinking out loud -

So matt is either trying to blow you off your hand and has J9, or he has a real hand (79,88 or TT). I think there is a small chance he would have a higher pocket pair, and didn't want to shut the blinds out with a reraise.

If he has something like 2 pair or an overpair, or is open ended, he will probably fold to your reraise. he is obviously calling your reraise with all the stuff he might have that beats you.

if I decide that all my chips are going into the center and if he has me then god bless 'em, then I am thinking of what kind of mistake I can make him make by waiting until the turn. really a question of, if the turn is scary will matt fold to a big bet. I can't really think of any mistakes he will make. he knows I am not drawing here, and so really he's not going to make any profitable (for me) mistakes, like folding top set to a scary straight card. the only thing he might do is fold a straight if the board pairs, and I don't want him to do that.

so for the above reasons, I think that it's a raise or fold the flop question. If I had 5 seconds to make the decision, then all my chips are going into the center. matt will make very few mistakes on the turn, I might make a very big one and therefore I am not going to let myself.

really, it's a question of what does my opponent want me to do. as you said, against a different player, I could easily either fold or be all in. both would be no brainer plays depending on who I was up against.

So my gut reaction is allin. However, I am unsure if this is right, so I want to think about it some more. looking forward to reading some responses.

--turnipmonster

[Matt Flynn]

"I am still thinking about the meat of the hand, but just wanted to comment that on the flop I prefer leading out with a set on a board like this..."

....

"so for the above reasons, I think that it's a raise or fold the flop question. If I had 5 seconds to make the decision, then all my chips are going into the center. matt will make very few mistakes on the turn, I might make a very big one and therefore I am not going to let myself."


Your kung fu is strong.

Matt
Poker Greenbelt

[tewall]

You should ask him to pick a number between 1 and 6. If it's a 1 or 4, (or any 2 of your choice) re-raise. Otherwise fold.

[tewall]

I agree with you, but think it's important to mix up your play in this situation. I'd think bet about 2 out of 3 times, maybe slightly more, and c/r the rest of the time.

[Matt Flynn]

Mike went all-in. He had 66 for bottom set. I had 97o for the nuts. We briefly discussed dealing it twice, then I offered to just take 2/3 of the pot and Mike accepted. I would have won both deals.

I figured Mike had about a clean flush draw so 2:1 worked for me. He had 7 and then 10 outs plus the runner-runner straight for the tie. Mike claims to be a grad student and apparently has an arithmetic bent 'cause right there he grabbed his backpack and pulled out this humongous calculator with a display bigger than my tv, a device of cartoonish proportions, Professor-Elmer-Fudd all the way, 2 pounds if it weighed a gram, and we go to work.

I have a goddam applied math degree and can't get the thing to multiply and divide.

Turns out the deal was slightly in my favor, but we micalculated because we counted the runner-runner ties as wins for Mike. Really it was perfect because Mike hasn't yet had a chance to build a monster bankroll, so it would've hurt him a bit. As it was he made a modest profit on the night.

BTW Mike, Alan's warming up to the idea of a once-a-month special Saturday night $10-25 PLHE game....

Matt

[rtrombone]

I haven't looked at the results yet.

It should be obvious that a pot-reraise is out. Matt knows you will not reraise without a big hand, so he's not calling you with an overpair. He probably wouldn't call with top two, and obviously not with a drawing hand like T9, 98, 87 or 76 getting only 2-1. If you stack here and he calls, you're dead.

So you either call or fold. It seems from your posts that Matt will take shots at you. It's possible, then, that he has something like the aforementioned 98 and is trying to make you lay down your hand. I would probably call and pull the stop and go with a bet on the turn. Something big enough that it's incorrect for him to call with an inside straight draw. If he's full of it he's not going to bet the turn and letting him get there for free would be disastrous. If he has a bigger set or 97 we're getting all the money in anyhow. I'm not good enough to release a set in this spot.

Btw, I would've just called on the flop if I thought that UTG would take another stab at the pot on the turn or if I thought Matt might try to take it away from both of us then.

Ok, time to look at the results.

[SomeName]

Just wanted to say that i found these two confrontations between you guys to be some of the most interesting posts i have read on here. keep em coming.

[ML4L]

Hey all,

Couldn't wait another day for me to post the results before you mocked my calculator, Matt? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Anyway, here are my thoughts. If you've read the Round 1 thread, you know that Matt thinks that he can get me to lay down some hands. So, unfortunately, I feel as though I have to go to war in some less than ideal places. This was one of them...

On the flop, I agree that, many times, leading out is the proper play. But, here is why I didn't here. The preflop raiser was going to put in a bet with any two cards. But, on that board, there are VERY few hands that he would raise, and he was unlikely to call with a hand like AK (and if he did, he would release on the turn if he missed). But, even though he wouldn't raise here with AA, he WOULD call a raise with it. Kinda screwy, isn't it? So, instead of trying to induce aggression from him, I thought I would rather make him put in a bet if he had rags and call away his stack if he had a hand. Plus, because Matt knows that he can outplay this player, my check-raise will end up trapping him on the flop, and he MIGHT even call with a hand like T9s, hoping to outplay me later. So, I went against conventional logic and check-raised.

A call-reraise is the strongest play in hold 'em. There was no question that he was representing the straight. And, to be honest, I believed him. But, I also felt very strongly about something else: that he did NOT have a set. That just isn't how he would play it (out of curiosity, how would you have played TT there, Matt?). I also felt that, since it was obvious what he was representing, he might have thought that he could get me to lay my hand down. So, I viewed the range of probabilities as:

Straight: 80%
Set: 5%
Bluff (call it T9): 15%

If I fold, my stack would have been $1500.
If I move all-in, my stack would have been:
80%*0.349($4505)+5%*0.052($4505)+15%*1.000($1505)= $1495

I tip more than $5 when I win a big hand...

Were the probabilities right? Maybe not; maybe Matt would never make that play as a bluff... But, given the way I viewed the situation, I feel that I made a reasonable play. Plus, hopefully these two hands have reduced his propensity to f*ck with my mind, which is worth a hell of a lot more than $5... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Rtrombone brought up a good point: what about a call? Well, the way that I saw it, I was probably going to pay off the turn regardless, but this lets HIM get away from a straight if the board pairs (we spoke about the hand, and he had contemplating calling the flop to make sure that the board didn't pair on the turn BEFORE committing his money). Plus, if he is on a bluff, he's going to turn his gutshot 1 out of 11 times. So, I don't know how I feel about calling. But, if Matt would never put in another dime with a worse hand than mine, meaning that I could release on the turn if the board doesn't pair, I think that calling is an option.

Thanks again for the responses.

Mike

[Matt Flynn]

"Couldn't wait another day for me to post the results before you mocked my calculator, Matt?"

Dude, that was a calculator? I thought my toaster had zits.


"But, I also felt very strongly about something else: that he did NOT have a set. That just isn't how he would play it (out of curiosity, how would you have played TT there, Matt?)."

Sorry Mike in that particular setting and mix I would have played TT the same way. Why would I want to shut you out on the flop with a huge set and position when you might check-raise me and build a monster? If I raised there most often everyone just folds. The insurance I have is being able to get away from big hands when needed often enough.


"Straight: 80%
Set: 5%
Bluff (call it T9): 15%"

I would only bluff 4*pi% there.


"If I fold, my stack would have been $1500.
If I move all-in, my stack would have been:
80%*0.349($4505)+5%*0.052($4505)+15%*1.000($1505)= $1495"

Clearly it was not a calculator. It was a bionic proboscis with separation capabilities.


"Plus, hopefully these two hands have reduced his propensity to f*ck with my mind, which is worth a hell of a lot more than $5..."

If you throw a gauntlet over your shoulder, is it still considered a challenge? ;-)

Matt