Another Doomed Wannabe???

[roGER]

Hello everyone,

I don't know how many of you are aware of this series of articles, but you may find them interesting:

http://www.pokerpages.com/articles/players/glenn-neubauer01.htm

Alas, I suspect his little dream will end as something of a nightmare. Why?:

1) He seems to have little or no understanding of the swings inherent in poker and how long these swings can last. Whining about a bad run that lasts several hours is ridiculous!

2) He's playing tournaments when I have doubts about the size of his bankroll ($5400) for limit play, even assuming he plays limit very well. Playing tournaments seems crazy, as its introducing even more variation when he should be trying to reduce his variation because his bankroll is small.

3) I'm not convinced by his comments and asides that he plays at anything like a good, or expert level. I suspect he's a small winner, something equal to or less than 1 small bet per hour.

4) He doesn't seem to be practising game selection in a logical way. Surely the best games in Las Vegas are to be found in the evenings, when the tourists and conventioners are out in force?

What do the rest of you think? On the plus side, at least it's a fun experiment for him and its not as if he's made irreversable life changes to accomplish it.

Oh, and for the record, I don't know the individual but I'm sure he's a nice guy.

- roGER

[Rushmore]

I had some serious doubts about this guy's chances myself, based on the same things you mentioned, coupled with, I don't know...his general tone (if that makes sense).

[ QUOTE ]
Oh, and for the record, I don't know the individual but I'm sure he's a nice guy.


[/ QUOTE ]

If you're posting "for the record," you might want to make more credible statements. He might be freakin Phyllis Schlafly or Cat Stevens, for all you know. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[sam h]

[ QUOTE ]
The $8-$16 limit and lower qualify for the bad beat jackpot which is anywhere from $20K to $120K. With 2 or 3 tables of $8-$16 going and 2 or 3 tables of $6-$12, you have a concentration of extremely talented players that would and could play at the $50-$100 level elsewhere IMHO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really understand this part. Is he saying that these $8-16 and $6-12 players are really $50-100 level? Lol. And is he implying that they are playing so low because they want a shot at the bad beat jackpot? Double lol.

[ QUOTE ]
All I could think was "Rounders II, starring Glenn Neubauer.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nuff said.

[ QUOTE ]
I played for six hours got four book playable hands, won two of those and played some that I shouldn't have and posted a $600 loss.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty much the formula for mediocre, losing poker.

[nothumb]

Hey, lay off Phyllis! She gave my wife great interior design advice. Plus she convinced her I'm her lord and master.

And it's Yusef Islam these days, infidel.

[banditbdl]

If he can't beat the 6-12 at Canterbury on a Friday night he's gonna have a hell of a time playing 10-20 at the Mirage on a Tuesday afternoon.

[nothumb]

I agree, after reading this article the guy doesn't really impress me. If I move out to LV and play losing mid-limit poker, will I get a column at pokerpages too? How does he know what the $8-16 in Vegas will be like? Why would the games in the poker capital of the world be easier than the hometown cardroom? Oh, that's right, there's an unnatural gathering of poker talent concentrated at the lower limits that makes Minneapolis tough as hell to beat.

[mike l.]

the subject of your post sums it up. but take away the "???".

this was the funniest part: "With 2 or 3 tables of $8-$16 going and 2 or 3 tables of $6-$12, you have a concentration of extremely talented players that would and could play at the $50-$100 level elsewhere IMHO."

lmao. where do these people come from?

[The WET BEAVER]

How could this guy make it into Pokerpages

[jayadd]

instead of insulting the guy how about some advice.


Hope he uses the restt of his bankroll to buy his wife a gift from the embarassing trip.

[eggzz]

I wonder if he blows his entire wad, if he makes stories up instead of continuing to be honest.

At this point, he is writing off day one as a bad day. But if day two is anything like day one, he may not have enough cash to stay out the week. It would be tough to write that article, IMHO.

I think you'll see a turnaround in his "luck", so to speak. Journalistic integrity notwithstanding.

[jdoe]

http://www.pokerpages.com/articles/players/glenn-neubauer02.htm

http://www.pokerpages.com/articles/players/glenn-neubauer03.htm

http://www.pokerpages.com/articles/players/glenn-neubauer04.htm


ENJOY

jdoe

[banditbdl]

[ QUOTE ]
My losses for the trip were $1300. I figure about $400 were to BJ, Craps, etc which leaves $900 down playing poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

Shortly followed by...

[ QUOTE ]
I am a recreational player, that has enough talent to win anytime I play but I realize that over the long run I am a break even kind of player .

[/ QUOTE ]

Man I love what this game will do to you...

[SinCityGuy]

Check out this segment. I was laughing so hard, I almost fell out of my chair:

I get A/images/graemlins/heart.gif-Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif on the button. There must be a misdeal. Mr. Utah bets, 9 seat raises, I raise, Mr. Utah raises and the 9 seat caps. Just us three. The flop comes 4/images/graemlins/club.gif-6/images/graemlins/club.gif-5/images/graemlins/heart.gif. Mr Utah bets, 9 seat raises, I call, Mr Utah raises , 9 seat raises, I call and Mr. Utah caps. There is now $155 in the pot. I am guessing 9 seat has A/images/graemlins/club.gif-K/images/graemlins/club.gif and I am discounting anything Mr Utah has. The turn comes 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif. Well at least I have a shot at this monster, I am thinking. Mr. Utah bets of course, 9 seat raises, I call, Utah raise and 9 seat raises again. Wait a minute. The alarms are starting to go off. 9 seat is still raising in a boat board. He wouldn't have called five bets with a pair of fives would he? There is now $450 in the pot. The river comes 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif. Great, I made my nut flush and I think the 9 seat has a boat. Mr Utah bets, 9 seat raises, I call (can't get out now, pots too big) Utah raises and 9 seat only calls. Weakness, maybe I do have a shot! I call. (seat 9 flips over over a pair of 5's for a boat. I am now royally upset at Mr. Utah for costing me all this money when he should have known he had a boat. I look at Mr. Utah and he flips over 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif-9/images/graemlins/heart.gif for a straight flush. I am STUNNED!. This bozo five bet an 8-9 of hearts before and after the flop when he was a 600+ underdog to draw those two exact cards.

[jayadd]

i really wanted to not like this article and make fun of him but after reading the last day it may be the most educating article for a novice who is thinking about turning pro.
Here is a guy who is 55 and has dreams of turning pro with very little experience even at the age of 55. You here guys at half his age with those dreams and not having any clue on reality of the every day grind. But i like the idea that reality hit him at the end of his trip with there is no way he would be ready.
if anyone has followed some of my posts in the past you know i have discussed making a move to las vegas, and not to become a pro player or nothing. Poker has some to do with it but i wanted a change. I hope that someone reads this article(TG) cause i received a phone call from a 2+2 er who really gave me a great pep talk about if i decided it shouldnt be for the reasons i wanted initially.
Good luck to all who stide to make the move to playing full time but get a 2nd opinion lol....

[NJchick]

You sound like you have a great game plan and a good head on your shoulders. You have already lived out west -- like me so you know what you are dealing with.

Best of luck and if you need another pep talk I am all ears.

NJC (TG)

[Boris]

I thought it was pretty cool what he did. He thought he had a chance so he went to find out. I'm sure he had a great time. So what if you guys don't think is Sven Sklansky?

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
This bozo five bet an 8-9 of hearts before and after the flop when he was a 600+ underdog to draw those two exact cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course, calling all those bets on the flop with overcards, and on the paired board on the Turn was the logical thing to do...

My other favorite (or favourite) part is the description of JTs as his "favorite hand." Seems like many losing (a.k.a. "breakeven") players don't like playing hands that they expect to win, because when they get beat (with Aces or "cowboys") it stings them too much.

And the "breakeven player" bit, but that's already been said. And 2/4 just being about the "luck factor."

I was disappointed that he forgot to mention that a good player can't win any money at the lower limits because the rake is so high.

An educating look into the mindset of a poker player. It's the cards, dammit, I just can't get any cards!!! Dealer, change the deck! Table change please!!

[Myrtle]

I have a good friend who's a fair player who plays at Cantebury.....

He keeps begging me to come out to visit because he says the games there are full of fish. I don't know how this squares with this posters evaluation of the games there, but after reading his article and the description of his play, I'm tending to believe that the Atlantic Ocean has now moved inland to Minnesota........

[gk2400]

The best was the Tourney when he was 3rd in chips and goes all in with king queen with the two big stacks to go and ends up going out on the buble. Also Tipping 40.00 for the days previous tourney win???? The most you can tip on a tourney like that in my opinion is 20.00 even that is probably way to much. Just my 2 cents

Gene

[Sheriff Fatman]

What a masterpiece. Every time I thought it couldn't get any better, it did! The last hand is a classic.

Highlights not yet mentioned:
1) He cuts himself a 60:40 deal at a final table whilst having a 5:1 chip lead heads up and then celebrates his first 'tournament win'.
2) He has a pop at Mr Utah's drinking at the table, forgetting his earlier 'Captain Morgan and Diet' comments.
3) After blowing his tournament winnings in 5 hours at Bellagio he blames the venue ('No more Bellagio') before jumping up limits to 10-20 at the Mirage and starts to drink while playing.
4) He makes no mention of playing any other games but then attributes $400 of his losses to Blackjack and Craps.
5) He started the day at a 3 card poker table and then wonders why he's off to a bad start.

However, the real gem is, having read the entire thing, I went back to the first article and found this, "I promise not to much gloating or whining. Not too many bad beat stories..." LMAO

Somehow I don't think he will ever make it as a pro but, from what I've read, I'm sure he's one hell of a table coach.

That being said, at least at the end of it he recognized his own limitations (i.e. he was only a 'break-even player' /images/graemlins/grin.gif) and, to be fair to him, he was taking a shot at a dream of his. In the end he was just another 'unlucky Vegas punter' returning home lighter in pocket like a few million others. It would have been far worse for him if he'd actually got lucky at the tables that week.

Sheriff

PS: Anyone know when the articles first appeared? My first thought was that it had been an April Fool wind-up article.

[StevieG]

I feel like we're dog-piling here. In many ways, the guy is being honest and sincere. It's admirable that he he would nut up like this and on top of that share the experience by writing about it.

Nevertheless, I'll add one more observation. The first paragraph includes this statement:

I have taken $5,400 out of my IRA to explore this adventure

Dipping into the assets growing tax free has gotta be an -EV move right from the start.

Take a shot at LV, sure. But building up a bankroll at home first seems like good prep work and a lot smarter than dipping into retirement money.

I mean, the Bad News Bears did go to Japan, but only after breaking training.

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
I mean, the Bad News Bears did go to Japan, but only after breaking training.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a great point. I can't believe nobody else made it.

Code Red, Ward 3, Code Red, Ward 3. Jacket needed.

[Rushmore]

[M2d]

And if I ever lose at cards
I'll only admit my luck is hard
And if I ever lose at cards
we-ee-ee-e-e-el
I won't play mirage, no more

[TylerD]

I was wondering if this article was going to be discussed here. Although he has called it "Can I make it as a Pro" I'm not sure this was never his intention, I think he was a recreational player who thought it would a great idea to play poker for an extended period of time, and who wouldn't.

Although everyone here has realised that he is not 'pro' material, he thought he'd give it his best shot, and more power to him. He obviously had fun, he tried to fulfill his 'dream' and it certainly made entertaining reading.

More evidence for 'doomed wannabe' status

[ QUOTE ]
The first hand I am one off the button and I get KQ. EVERYONE calls to me so I raise to thin out the field a little. One guy drops. The flop comes Q-5-3 rainbow. An OK flop considering. Now everyone checks, I bet $2, everyone calls. The turn brings a K. Everyone checks, I bet $4 and everyone drops except EG2 who calls. I figure obviously a cowboy. The river brings an A and EG2 bets. Great he has A-K and he ets runner-runner to win. I call he turns over 2-4. My jaw drops and he looks at me like, 'I had to stay'. He is really excited and I smile and say 'nice hand'. He happily rakes in the pot and said if they hadn't been suited he wouldn't stayed. I just smile. Everyone is oooing and ahhing over his explanation. EG2 then goes on to win about every third pot until the tournament starts and has started to give advice to people. Now he is just annoying

[/ QUOTE ]

Not his play, just his thought process, my guess is 'EG2' was in the BB.

[Andy B]

pudley4 had a post about this on the B&M forum and I responded without scrutinizing the article. If this guy really wants to see if he has what it takes to be a pro, he could have saved the air fare and spent a good long while in Canterbury's $15/30 game before his $5400 was gone. If you can't beat that game, you probably can't beat poker, and the $6/12 game is about as close to free money as you can get.

[Andy B]

Tony Holden took a year off from whatever he does and spent a year as poker "pro." He wrote a book chronicling his experience, which as I recall began with the 1988 World Series and ended with the 1989 World Series, give or take a year. He broke about even, but he did get a book out of it, which probably made the whole venture worthwhile from a financial standpoint. I don't think this guy is going to be able to recover his $5400 by writing for pokerpages.

[superleeds]

[ QUOTE ]
Tony Holden took a year off from whatever he does

[/ QUOTE ]

He's a writer, was before, was after.

[SinCityGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course, calling all those bets on the flop with overcards, and on the paired board on the Turn was the logical thing to do...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, and it gets even better on the turn, where he puts the nine seat on A/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif with two clubs and a heart on the board (and our genius holding the A/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif). So, by his own reckoning, he's got a dominated hand, now drawing to two queens (which are most probably behind one of the other players), with his only real hope being running hearts for the nut flush.

[Army Eye]

Man he was in so over his head. I was cringing as I read . I'm just glad he didn't lose his entire bankroll.