99 - What do I do here?

[Warik]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Warik is MP2 with 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, <font color="CC3333">Warik raises</font>, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Warik bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="CC3333">Button raises</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, Warik calls, CO calls.

Turn: (9.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, Warik checks, CO checks, <font color="CC3333">Button bets</font>, BB calls, Warik ...?

[MortalNuts]

Hi Warik --

I would probably fold. To me, Button's flop raise looks less likely to be a flush draw raise now, since he didn't take the "free" turn card against only 3 players. And BB's flop coldcall could be a draw or something random, but still gives me a little pause.

Of course, this is party 2/4, so I suppose the cold-call plus flop raise plus turn bet could be like 73o. Absent any clue that Button likes to spew chips out his nose, though, I don't think you're good 1 time in ~9 here (since I presume if you call the turn, you'd call a blank on the river).

cheers,

mn

[Alobar]

I think its an easy fold here. He called 2 cold pre flop and is raising you on a board that holds an ace. He's prolly got the ace. There are other hands he could be doing this with (and even some of those beat you), but you've got the BB who called 2 cold in the hand still which is a concern, and even if your hand is good its very vunerable. Hope it goes to a showdown and make a note on what the button cold called, raised you with.
If you hadn't been getting good odds on the flop after the raise I would have folded right there.

[Yeknom58]

Once the BB calls you pretty much have to fold. Are both of them on draws....probably not...looks like you have to fold.

[sthief09]

flop: you call the raise because you are almost getting odds to spike the 9, and your implied odds will bridge the gap. if you don't have the 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif then you fold. but since you have the 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif there's no chance that you'll spike a set and someone will make a flush on the same card.

turn: easiest fold ever. remember that you called the flop ONLY to spike a 9. since you missed, you have to lay this down.

[Warik]

I ended up folding. Any ace has me beat and after the turn, so does any ten. My only shot here is to river a set. Two outs at this point which is a 22:1 shot in a 10BB pot.

Now if only that dang nine hadn't come on the river I wouldn't have given this a second thought. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Nevertheless, -EV is -EV. I didn't get out of a 100 BB downswing making calls like this.

Thanks for the comments folks.

[Glurfle]

He's getting 9:1 on a 22.5:1 shot. I don't like the flop call at all. Implied odds are fun and all that, but trying to collect 7 BB on the turn and river if he spikes his 9...that's pretty rough. And that's assuming he always wins when he gets it.

[BaronVonCP]

Fold to flop raise.

[sthief09]

what are you talking about? he's getting like 18.5-1

and FYI, the odds are 23.5-1 not 22.5-1

[sthief09]

why? he's getting 18.5-1 on a 23.5-1 shot... given all the action on the flop and the fact that he holds the 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif, this is a ridiculously easy call

[wizard_1974]

Even if if the nine falls on the turn, he may lose if any club other than the ace falls on the river. I think that diminishes his implied odds to the point that this is a pretty clear fold on the flop.

[Glurfle]

Oops, I'm a crackhead. He is indeed getting 17.5:1, assuming a call behind him. You don't seem to understand odds, though. 47 unknown cards, 2 of which help him, 45 of which don't. 45:2 == 22.5:1. He has a 1 in 23.5 chance of hitting a 9, true, but that's not the same as 23.5:1 odds.

So it's closer than I said, but I think it's still a fold. He only needs to make up 5 SB if he spikes his 9, which is fine if he can guarantee that his hand always holds up when that happens. But if a club falls that makes someone a flush, he's going to have to pay that off. It's not out of the question that someone has 56 for a OESD. If the flop was something like A72 rainbow I'd agree that the flop call isn't bad getting 17.5:1 with 3 opponents, but in that case you can be pretty darn sure that a set of 9's will hold up through the river.