Value-Betting Draws

[Warik]

Betting flush draws on the flop for value has yielded me some good additional profit over the past few thousand hands. Stuff like AXs that I end up seeing a flop with and finding two of my suit has had me either capping the flop and hitting my draw on the turn or capping the flop and getting a cheap turn card to see if I make it on the river.

My question is how far I should take the draw bets for value and on what streets to do it on.

Example: I see a flop with KXs and flop two of my suit. Do I raise a bet on the flop? Do I 3-bet? Cap? What about QXs? What about an "any-two-suited" quality hand that I got in from the blinds with?

How about the turn? Do we check-call the turn in hopes of hitting our hand on the river or is the turn a value-betting opportunity as well?

Finally, what about situations where my 4-flush comes on the turn? Suppose I have AKo and the flop misses me except for 2 of my ace's suit. Maybe I bet the flop or maybe I check-call or maybe I see the turn for free - whatever, but say the turn is the 3rd of the suit. At this point I have 9 outs for the nut flush. Is this the time to value-bet? Value-raise? Value-cap?

I'm not afraid to put 4 bets in with a 4-flush, but I'm afraid of doing it without knowing if it's correct or if I should do it with any flush draw.

Any rules of thumb?

[Duke]

Nowhere in your post did you mention the number of opponents contributing to your raising. You do know that that's a key variable here, right?

~D

[ZootMurph]

I raise flush draws for value... you get value two ways with two suited non-Ace high cards... One is you hit the flush and bring home a big pot. The second is you lose the pot and advertise a bluff/weak hand that can later help you grab some bigger pots. Flush draws are my main advertising plays... I love them for that.

As for hitting the four flush on the turn... it REALLY depends on the situation for me. I may bet out to get a read on what people have, I doubt I would raise unless I was sensing weakness and thought I could win the hand right there, and I definitely wouldn't three bet it. I don't see much value in raising if someone has the flush already, since your outs are really limited (from 9 to 7)... more if you make the assumption that of the other 16 cards players had, two were probably your suit as well. I'd check/call and hope to hit on the river, but unless you think you can take down the pot, don't do it.

[Warik]

[ QUOTE ]
You do know that that's a key variable here, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, if the odds against an OESD hitting on the turn are 4.875:1 and the odds of OESD against the river or a flush on the turn or river are less than that, I'd assume that I'll need at least 5:1 on every bet or raise, right?

Would that mean that it's a check-fold situation if I don't have those pot odds?

[BaronVonCP]

Ok lets say you are 4:1 to make a hand on the next card. If 6 people are calling, you make money on every bet that goes in. So if you flop a draw to the nut, and there are 6 people in the hand, pumping is great. (however you don't want to make them call 2 cold unless you are certain they will call. Every opponent you lose cost you money.)

Say you are heads up and it was raised before the flop. You flop a strong draw and your opponent bets. You will not be making money by pumping the pot. That doesn't mean that its wrong to raise, you have equity in the potential for him folding. You also can take a free card on the next street. But there is no value in the raises themselves.
You shuldn't fold however, if the pot is laying you the correct odds to call. (which will be likely)

But whatever.Some one will come and straighten you out soon..

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
Would that mean that it's a check-fold situation if I don't have those pot odds?

[/ QUOTE ]

NO!

With a hand like Ac4c on a flop of Jc, 8h, 2c, you will often win the hand simply by catching an Ace on the turn or river. So, you don't have a normal 9-out hand. You will often have a 12-out hand.

[Gramps]

Think of it this way - on the flop, with TWO CARDS to come, you're about 35% to complete your 4-flush, and rougly 30% to make your OESD. So, as far as the bets going into the pot on the flop...

Let's say you have Ac4c on the button. 5 people seeing flop, it comes Qc 8c 2h. SB bets, three callers, you raise, all call. 10 SB went into the pot. You're going to win 35% of the time (two cards to come - we're simplifying and saying flush = win 100% of the time, you have no other way to win the hand). You paid 2 SB. Your average take on this round is 3.5 SB. Your EV is +1.5 SB. Your EV increased by +.75 SB by making that value raise.

Now...if you miss on the Turn, you only have about a 4 to 1 shot to make your flush on the River card. So it may be -EV to put in money in on THAT round of betting (obviously you have odds to call given the pot size at stake in addition to the bets going into the pot on that round, I'm talking about the Turn round of betting). E.g., lets say two players are going to fold to any bet, and it's going to be you and the other 2 putting in money. That's -EV on THAT round of betting. If you put in 1 BB each, there's 3 BB in there, you win 20% of the time, you get back .6 BB on average, you're losing .4 BB per bet. So...if you had a choice, you would rather it check around, given the circumstances. Each additional bet, you lose EV.

So there's two questions you have to ask yourself in these situations:

(1) Do I have the odds, given the size of the ENTIRE POT to chase my draw? (Usually "yes" for a flush or OESD);

If the answer to #1 is "yes," then...

(2) Given the % chance I have of winning this hand (basically hitting your draw - but that's simplifying a bit), do I want extra bets going into the pot? If there's a bet on the flop, and a # of callers before it gets to you AND you don't fear the 3-bet (that might knock out some of the 1-bet callers), the answer to this 2nd question is often "yes." Hence, you raise for value.