NEPC $500 NL hand

[daryn]

blinds are 50-75, i have about T4000 at the start of the hand.

folded to button (T3200) who open raises for 225, folds to me in the BB, i have TT. i seriously consider folding it as i believe i always misplay pairs like TT and JJ, but i end up just calling the 225.

flop comes off 97x, x being some small card i can't remember. i lead out T500, he makes it T1000. i move all in.

[Che]

daryn-

A 3xBB open from the button screams steal so I almost never call the button if I have a real hand.

TT qualifies as real in my book so I probably make it 900 (4x his bet), maybe slightly less. Frequently I will take it right there. If called, I have narrowed the range of possible hands (hopefully). If reraised, I can probably safely fold. Note: I might bet less or even call against certain players, but this would probably be my standard play against an unknown and I would need a good reason to alter it.

If I did call and the action went as posted, I'd have a very tough decision (that a preflop raise might have avoided). Is he baiting me with AA-JJ/99/77/97 or is his minraise a feeler bet with overcards or a small pair? Very hard to know.

I probably also end up allin though (much to my regret, most likely).

Che

[togilvie]

The problem here is that you get action only when you're beat. He's told you he has a piece of the hand, or is bluffing. Your all-in move won't get any additional dollars out of worse hands nor will it make a better hand fold. (Maybe JJ, but not likely).

If you lose this hand, you're basically crippled. I would have called his bet and tried to see a showdown as cheaply as possible.

Of course, now you'll tell me that he called with a open-ended straight draw...

[Boris]

Sounds OK to me.

[superleeds]

Any info on him? How did you percieve his previous play? Good? Tricky? Dead Money?

I think his min raise after the flop means 99, 77 (surely he would call) and also higher pairs (bigger raise I would think) can be discounted. I would put him on A9, T8, 86, T9 and unfortunately 97 (all probably suited but I assume thats not important on this flop). It's not a big enough raise for a pure bluff (screams semi to me) so you have to give him credit for something.

I think your happy to take the pot here, I would be given the hands I've put him on, unless its the T9, so your only option is all-in. I hope he didn't have the 97

[togilvie]

He's making a raise that represents 33% of his stack. That's not a minimum raise - that's a legitimate hand or a strong bluff.

I think it's equally likely (if not more likely) that he's doing one of two things:
1) Trying to avoid being pot-committed in the event that his opponent has a bigger hand(would imply a big pocket pair that wants to get away from a set).
2) Trying to build the pot so his opponent is pot committed. This would imply a set.

While your assessment of "it's a steal raise" may be right, you need to ask yourself "What if I'm wrong?". In this instance, you're crippled and probably out of the tournament shortly.

Given the wide range of probable hands that beat you, I think you need to be much more cautious. I'm not interested in 55/45 opportunities in this stage of the tournament, preferring to wait for when I'm 70/30. His stack is big enough to wait for better opportunities.

[superleeds]

[ QUOTE ]
He's making a raise that represents 33% of his stack. That's not a minimum raise - that's a legitimate hand or a strong bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

or a bet designed to see the river for no more money.

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's equally likely (if not more likely) that he's doing one of two things:
1) Trying to avoid being pot-committed in the event that his opponent has a bigger hand(would imply a big pocket pair that wants to get away from a set).
2) Trying to build the pot so his opponent is pot committed. This would imply a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why I asked for more info on his opponent and both of these options would imply that he's a tough opponent. Not many in this event (I played) would be able to get away from a bigger pair now and IMHO many typical players are just calling with a set.

[ QUOTE ]
While your assessment of "it's a steal raise" may be right, you need to ask yourself "What if I'm wrong?". In this instance, you're crippled and probably out of the tournament shortly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, but I'm thinking this is far more likely to be a semi-bluff with the str8 draw or even more likely a big 9 or 7.

[ QUOTE ]
Given the wide range of probable hands that beat you, I think you need to be much more cautious. I'm not interested in 55/45 opportunities in this stage of the tournament, preferring to wait for when I'm 70/30. His stack is big enough to wait for better opportunities.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not many of the hands I'm putting him on are coin flips and with most I have a big advantage.

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
I would have called his bet and tried to see a showdown as cheaply as possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what do you do when an overcard hits the turn (~1/3 of the time) or the river (~50% of the time at least one of the two will be an overcard)? An aggressive player will probably push if you check whether he has it or not. Do you check-fold?

If the opponent does have 2 overcards, you need to bet more than 1250 to kill his odds (assuming that price gets him the turn and river). He only has 2000 left so you might as well push in if you think he's bluffing. 4-outers (gutshot draw), 5-outers (e.g. A9s, A7s) and 8-outers (open-ended straight draw) are also possible semi-bluff hands. You have to pot-commit yourself to kill the odds on this range of hands so, again, you might as well push in IF you read the minraise as a bluff/semi-bluff.

You're drawing to 2 outs if you're beat so you fold IF that's your read.

If you're somewhere in between (as you usually will be, of course), I think picking one or the other (push/fold) and going with it is better than calling. Putting in 500 more chips seems to either give more chips to someone who's already beating you or make it more tempting for an aggressive player to bluff you (which is dangerous since any card 5 or bigger is a potential scare card).

Disclaimer: My poker experience is 100% online. The presence of tells in a B&M setting might make the call the better play since you wouldn't need to fold to any overcard - only the ones that you're confident hit your opponent. Since overcards will only actually hit your opponent's hand 13% of the time or less (25% total for turn and river), I might like just calling if I were a good B&M player. Maybe that's why you like the call...I don't know. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Later,
Che

[togilvie]

>>Not many of the hands I'm putting him on are coin flips and with most I have a big advantage.

The problem is that you are putting him on these hands and ignoring the ones where you're drawing to two outs. When you consider the full range of reasonable late-position raising hands that would fire back with 1/3 of their stack, this is basically a breakeven proposition.

>>or a bet designed to see the river for no more money.

This isn't a situation that I'm unhappy with. Given the full range of hands that he could have and the amount of money in the pot, I'm happy seeing a showdown cheaply and think I'm getting a good price.

>>Agreed, but I'm thinking this is far more likely to be a semi-bluff with the str8 draw or even more likely a big 9 or 7.

How are you making this assessment? I expect Dr Bayes would disagree. I find that big hands on the button and cutoff are far and away the most profitable because opponents frequently put me on a steal. When they are wrong - I take their stack.

I played in the event as well and while there were lots of fish, there were also lots of talented players. I've never found it a good policy to count on my opponents being fish. Instead, I assume they are good and play to that level. Being wrong is much cheaper.

[togilvie]

>>An aggressive player will probably push if you check whether he has it or not. Do you check-fold?

I might. I think a major difference of opinion here is that I'm not likely to put a player on overcards when they re-raised me with 1/3 of their stack. If they do that, I bless them and their entire school for making the game great. Good players will release overcards to my original flop bet, and if I call them, won't often move in on the turn or river unless they connect. To the extent that you're playing a hyper-aggressive player that does so, I make a mental note to set traps and look at my next hand. I find this is a major difference between online and B&M, in which it's much easier to pin a profile on a player and take their stack through that process.

>>If you're somewhere in between (as you usually will be, of course), I think picking one or the other (push/fold) and going with it is better than calling.

Here's where we really disagree. If you push all-in, you will get called by hands that beat you, and no worse hand will call. So you're still only getting "showdown equity", but you're putting your entire stack behind it. This isn't something I'm willing to do with what I think becomes a pretty close to even-money bet.

[superleeds]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem is that you are putting him on these hands and ignoring the ones where you're drawing to two outs. When you consider the full range of reasonable late-position raising hands that would fire back with 1/3 of their stack, this is basically a breakeven proposition.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm basing my whole assesment on the premise that Daryn's opponent is a typical player. Hopefully he will shed more light and also how he thinks he was percieved also. The way the betting went I'm discounting AA, KK, QQ, 99, 77 for a typical player.

[ QUOTE ]
This isn't a situation that I'm unhappy with. Given the full range of hands that he could have and the amount of money in the pot, I'm happy seeing a showdown cheaply and think I'm getting a good price.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not, I've got TT. I've called an initial raise and I've been raised when I've bet in to him. No way am I giving him free cards. He can have it now or its gonna cost.

[ QUOTE ]
How are you making this assessment? I expect Dr Bayes would disagree. I find that big hands on the button and cutoff are far and away the most profitable because opponents frequently put me on a steal. When they are wrong - I take their stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

On the way the betting has gone.

[ QUOTE ]
I played in the event as well and while there were lots of fish, there were also lots of talented players. I've never found it a good policy to count on my opponents being fish. Instead, I assume they are good and play to that level. Being wrong is much cheaper.

[/ QUOTE ]

I totally agree.
Daryn please enlighten.

[daryn]

i think the guy i was against in this hand was Chris Ackerman, the kid who appeared on the most recent foxwoods wpt show. i could be wrong, but he looked about 15 years old and had mirrored shades. does anyone know who i'm talking about?

[togilvie]

Sure he won one of the lower limit events last fall as well. Total fish, right ;-)

Though he is very aggressive...

[daryn]

i never said anywhere he was a fish, i have never even commented of his play. he cashed in pretty big in the wpf last year.

[superleeds]

Well this could change things. But lets look at it from his point of view. He's raised pre-flop, not huge but more than the blinds combined. Maybe he wants a raise here but also I think he could make this with a few hands where taking the blinds would be satisfactory. Now on a raggedy flop he is bet into by the bb, a pot sized bet by someone who has already called a raise. What's he to think.

1. Uh oh. Lucky blind flop. My AA's (insert big pair) way behind a set and even 2 pair makes it look fairly shabby now. Lets reraise the minimum. He if he comes over the top I'm done. If not I might still be good, Lets see what he does on the turn, after all a good player in the blind might try to push me of a good hand with that flop. It's a fair amount of my stack but at this stage and with these blinds I can get away from it.

2. Uh oh. My AK/AQ/AJ/KQ don't look so pretty any more. What's he got. Well if its a set I should fold. Would he make this play with A9/A7, would he play these after my raise. What about 97, T9, T8, 86, K9, K7. If they are suited, maybe? I've seen worse. Let's raise the minimum, if he reraise I'm done, if not I might get to a cheap river.

3. Not a bad flop for my T8/86 steal attempt, but that's a big bet. Must have a hand. What if he's got AA/KK, I'll bust him here if I hit. I'll semi-bluff, if he comes over the top I'm done. If not I might get lucky and take his stack.

4. Bingo. 999/777. Now how am I gonna extract all his money. Well by calling he may bet the turn and with the pot the size it is he must commit himself. Its still early so do I want to give him a free card if he's on a draw. If I'm risking the draw I think a calls OK, if not then a large bet is surely in order. He's trying to convince me he has a big pair leading out with a pot size raise but then why no re-raise preflop. Maybe he has TT/JJ and I don't want him to lay these down. Will a $500 raise acheive anything here. Only a laydown from a stone cold bluff with no outs and a call from something which could catch a winner.

5. That flop missed him as it missed me but my AA/KK beats his TT/JJ/88, I'm going to play extremely tricky to reel him in.

At this stage of the tournament I just can't buy 5. I think you did the right thing.

I hope he didn't have 4 /images/graemlins/frown.gif
or worse 5 /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

The problem here is that you get action only when you're beat.

1. He shouldn't be looking for action, he should be trying to win the 2000 chips already in the pot, which will increase his stack by 67%.

2. Considering that the button is getting 2-1 or so to call, he may get action from draws/overcards.

[daryn]

button thought for a little bit and finally called, saying "you got a set?"

unfortunately i did not and his JJ held up to win the pot, leaving me with around 800 in chips.

[superleeds]

Ouch.

I don't like the way he played it. When you move in not only has he to worry about a set but AA, KK, QQ become distinct possibilities as well as maybe AKs

[daryn]

yeah i guess i thought that the fact that i had him covered and he could potentially be eliminated from the tourney on this very hand might sway him to fold a hand he was on the fence about. of course if i'd known he had jacks i wouldn't really expect him to lay it down.

[togilvie]

>>The problem here is that you get action only when you're beat.

>>1. He shouldn't be looking for action, he should be trying to win the 2000 chips already in the pot, which will increase his stack by 67%.

Here's what I meant by saying it's a problem that you only get action when you're beat. Let's assume that there's a 50/50 chance that you're ahead (it doesn't matter). If you're ahead, he's got only a few outs. Similarly you have only a few outs, if you're behind.

If you were call his bet and all betting were to stop, you have a 50% chance of having a stack of ~5000 chips, and a 50% chance of having 2500. This yields an EV of 3750.

When you move all-in in this situation, where worse hands will fold leaving only better hands to call you, you have a 50% chance of ending up with 5000 chips (you win the pot immediately because worse hands fold) and a 50% chance of ending up with 800 (Your opponents only call when they've got you beat). Your EV goes down to 2900. You've also increased your variance, which you want to minimize in tournaments.