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Che
03-31-2004, 05:01 PM
Hand 157: 400/800/a50. 2.5 hours into the Stars 10+1 Rebuy. Around 230 of 975 left. 81 paid. Avg. stack around 22000.

Two folds then I raise 1600 to 2400 with J /images/graemlins/club.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif
Next three fold, button (~11000) calls.
BULLY (small blind): raises 34035 to 36435 and is all-in
New Guy (big blind): calls 13460 and is all-in
It’s back to me – 16469 to call. 2.33:1 odds on the total pot.

Reads: Button, Bully, and I have been at this table since the start. I expect button to fold, but he might gamble on the huge pot odds. Basically, he’s a nonfactor other than making a mental note that he might be folding one (or two) of my opponents’ outs.

Bully could have anything in Eastbay’s Hand Set C (reference to post in one-table forum: ‘ranking hands against "push hands" preflop’), making me a near 2:1 favorite against his range of possible hands if my read is correct.

New Guy was moved to the table during the previous hand and I have no prior read. If I assume he is solid, I’m behind his range of hands – probably AA-TT, AK. (Please correct me if this range is incorrect.) However, this is a stars 10+1 rebuy so assuming solid play can be very costly.

I’m getting 2.33:1 from the total pot on my 16469 call. I figure I’m a big favorite for the ~9200 side pot. I might have folded if the new guy had had me covered, but he didn’t so I decided to gamble for the huge pot since I had the side pot to fall back on if I at least beat the bully.

Che: calls 16469 and is all-in
Button: folds as expected

Given my reads, what do you think of my call?

If you think I should have folded, what pot odds would you need to make the call in this situation (i.e. folding leaves you with 75% of the avg. stack still far from the money)? 3.5:1? 4.5:1? More?

Alternatively, how desperately short-stacked would you need to be to take the 2.33:1 odds? Call if folding leaves you with half the average stack? 25%?

Results in separate post…

Che
03-31-2004, 05:03 PM
Bully shows KK. New Guy shows QQ. Oops.

The cards came: 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Without river J, prize money = $0.
With river J, prize money = $7930, since I went on to claim my first multi-table tourney victory!!!

After reviewing the hand history, I am extremely pleased with my play in the other 399 hands. Then again, it’s easy to play well when big cards are repeatedly hitting you over the head.

It’s scary to think that it was my night to catch lots of big hands and I responded by played well in 399 of 400 hands, but this one mistake could have cost me almost $8000 if the dealer hadn’t saved me.

No limit – what a game!

Later,
Che

BTW- If I had the hand to play over again, I might gamble again if my reads were the same. However, after reviewing the hand history, I should have given the bully credit for a much better hand – probably AA-88, AK, AQ. He was bullying but he wasn’t crazy. He went on to finish 10th despite the bad beat, actually – congrats to him.

ohkanada
03-31-2004, 06:02 PM
Congrats for the win and that J /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Tough decision on the hand in question. If you truely believe the bully can have anything then you are well ahead on the sidepot. In this case the sidepot would be 12k or so.

For the mainpot I would be surprised if you are ahead of the New Guy. I can't imagine him have less than QQ. The best case is he has AK.

I think it is a fold but you know how the bully was playing better than anyone.

Ken Poklitar

Che
04-01-2004, 03:52 PM
[ QUOTE ]
In this case the sidepot would be 12k or so.


[/ QUOTE ]

I apologize if my numbers were confusing, but I had the New Guy covered by a little over 4600 chips so the sidepot was 9200 and change.

[ QUOTE ]
Congrats for the win and that J

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you. Reading your posts over the last few months definitely contributed to the win. Thanks a bunch!

Che