Was This a Call - Part II

[prairieboy]

I lifted this hand from an earlier post (by Ben) so that we could take a look at it beyond the flop. The consensus opinion on the flop was that the Hero should raise the flop with his second pair, flush draw.

My reason for posting this is to learn how far to push a hand like this when the turn/river don't improve your hand. (After all, it's easy to play when you hit your cards, it gets a bit tougher when you miss them.)

Party Poker Pot-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed)

Button ($40.25)
Hero ($26.95)
BB ($15)
UTG ($26.85)
UTG+1 ($18)
MP1 ($26.50)
MP2 ($11.10)
CO ($25.40)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T /images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 calls $0.50, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button folds, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif, 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets $1, UTG+1 folds, <font color="blue"> Hero Raises to $6 </font> , BB folds, <font color="blue"> UTG calls </font> .

TURN: Lets take two possibilities, the K /images/graemlins/spade.gif and a not so scary 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

For each of these cards, what do you do next?

RIVER: Call it 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Assume you've bet and been called on the turn. What do you do next?

[MrFroggyX]

Excellent question!
These are the hand that I loose money on.. I have no idea what the "right" way is to play the turn and river street! /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

I eagerly wait other more respected posters advice! /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[1800GAMBLER]

The only arguement for not raising this flop is because you are out of position on the next street, if we had position the most common play would be to check the turn through.

Out of position though, if he's passive/bets small i check. If he's tight i bet the pot. I've sometimes checkraised again here, but that requires him to fold a lot.

River i get ready to checkfold unless he does something strange. A lot of players wont bluff their busted draws at this level.

[NaobisDad]

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I eagerly wait other more respected posters advice! /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I should heed this advice, but feel compelled to reply.

This is why I hate having draws up front. It's also why I'd be less inclined to raise that hand on the flop. The utg bets about half a pot. Depending on what kind of player this is I'd count on Top pair. Although a draw to a higher flush than you is no impossibility. In both cases I see trouble.
When a king hits, you're almost obligated to bet. And because your opponent knows you had something bettable on the flop, this king is probably scarier for you than for him.

The 2 makes things a little easier. You have a decent chance of picking it up with a bet now. I wouldn't be afraid of being raised here. I'd probably be called (and that would scare me) or there would be a fold.

If I were called and the river was a brick. That's exactly the position I don't want to be in. THat's why I don't like to play these hands aggressively up front on the flop. You are probably beat. The river being a brick probably improves your chances of picking up the pot, your opponent is obviously trying to improve. But I don't like investing a large bet into a large pot, with a mediocre hand against someone who is obviously reluctant to fold. That river bet would either have to be big or in proportions to your chances of winning.

But like I said. I'm not good at these situations, and thus I try to avoid them. I'm very interested in more sophistocated responses to this post. Since I'd like to learn not to lose money on these hands.

[CrisBrown]

Hi prairie,

This is a player-reading problem. UTG limped in pre-flop, and called my check-raise at the flop. He probably has a hand. He may even have a better hand than mine. But I don't know that yet, because once UTG+1 folded, UTG may have decided to play his position rather than his cards.

I want to know if he has a hand he's willing to take to the felt. I'm not going to the felt on just 9s with a 10 kicker, but he doesn't know what I have.

I'll bet $8 at the turn. He will often lay down anything less than KQ here, and that includes some hands that would beat my 9s. If he calls, I know he can beat 9s, and I'm not putting any more money into this pot unless I catch a 9 or my flush at the river. If he raises me, it will almost certainly be all-in, and I'll know he likes his hand enough to go broke on it. So my 9s go in the muck.

In my opinion, the possibility that he may fold a better hand to my turn bet, plus the possibility that I may have the best hand with my 9s, plus the 1:4 chance that I may draw to a winning hand even if my 9s aren't good now, make this a strongly +EV play.

Cris

[1800GAMBLER]

Detailed response:

On the flop against a made hand you are almost 50/50 so your raising edge comes from the times he incorrect folds Qs. The amount of money you put in doesn't matter, you are making money per dollar you put in, just not very much. So since the pot is so small why raise? The pot is only $2. Raising also has the other advantages, if a 9 drops no way will he put you on trips and you stand to get more action than calling and waking up on the turn. Same goes for a flush card, you'll get more action.

Yet, you're 3:1 to make a better hand on the turn, so 3 out of 4 times you are sat not knowning what to do. So if he did call, you now have to consider the better play. If you pot raised his bet it's unlikely he called in the first place, but if he did it's doubtful he's going to give up on the turn. But if you want to bluff:

Say the pot stands at $15 now. You bet $15. As a pure bluff he needs to fold 50% of his hands here. But since you are 3:1 to make a hand when he calls that becomes a lot lower. Your bet again hides your hand and gives you more detail about the hand he is holding thus giving you a greater chance of getting even all in on the river.

If you think he will bet if checked to but wont raise if you bet you should bet anyway This seems the likely case on this flop, Q9 QQ are unlikely 99 seems like the only card that will raise your bet here. He also seems like he has a betable hand.

SO in this hand my play would be as follows:

Complete.
Raise to $6, a good sized raise.
Bet the pot, in both cases of hit or miss.
Check, call a stupid bet. Checkfold a good bet, bet out if hit.

[CrisBrown]

Hi Jay,

I agree with your overall reasoning, but:

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Say the pot stands at $15 now. You bet $15.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is that Hero only has $20 left. If you're going to bet $15, you may as well push it all in, because you're basically pot-committed given the odds that he may be bluffing at the river.

With the $8 bet that I suggested, you've killed his draw odds, and put him in a situation where his only reasonable raise is all-in, so he's at a decision for all of his chips and you've saved $7 if he plays back at you.

Otherwise, I agree. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Cris

[Ben]

Cris, I think each of your responses improves my play a few percentage points.

Another bookmarked post /images/graemlins/smile.gif

-Ben

[DcifrThs]

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I eagerly wait other more respected posters advice! /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Well i may no longer be a respected poster [thank you froggy /images/graemlins/mad.gif lol) but i think that its been nailed. He'll fold anything less than KQ to the $8 bet and you get the benefits described. its a situation in which we find ourselves many times but only really watching opponents betting strategies and actions can let us know what the best play may be.

take care,
-Barron