Bubble Trouble

[tim.daughters]

I was reviewing my SNG results, and I am doing OK, but my most frequent result is 4th. (Not statistically significant, but it is what you remember). Here is a recent 4th place that I would like some feedback on.

Thanks to several all-in confrontations that ended up with split pots, we were still 4 handed with 500/1000 blinds. The chip positions before the blinds were:

Me (small blind): 2050
Pretty good player 1 (big blind): 1915
Pretty good player 2: 2535
Sir Limps a lot: 3500

PGP2 folds and Limps a lot limps.
I have Ax suited. Now, with the blinds being so big and coming around so often, I can't wait forever for a decent hand. Ax suited is a decent hand. Had it been folded around to me, it is certainly correct for me to raise all in. But what about that limper? If I fold, I can only face the blinds once more. On the other hand, maybe I should give the big blind a chance to go broke. If I just fold this hand, it is likely that he'll be all in before the hand is through. If he loses, I'm in the money and still have a crack at 1st or 2nd with the blinds so high. If he wins, Limps a lot will be in trouble (although he'll have more chips than me.) But Ax suited might be the best hand I see before I'm broke.

OK, I raised all in. PGP1 folded. Limps a lot called with AK offsuit and beat me. (Mutant side topic: If Limps a lot had raised like he should have, we wouldn't be discussing this.)

What do the rest of you think the best strategy is for me?

[Sheriff Fatman]

[ QUOTE ]
The chip positions before the blinds were:

Me (small blind): 2050
Pretty good player 1 (big blind): 1915
Pretty good player 2: 2535
Sir Limps a lot: 3500

[/ QUOTE ]

Its a fold for me.

You're now down to 1550 but have got past your blinds. Big blind is already down to 915 and PGP2 is down to 1535 with his call. If BB plays then he's going to end up all-in. If he loses you money. If he wins, PGP2 is then down to 620 chips and all-in on the big blind next hand.

Assuming this doesn't resolve the situation for you then you can still survive another round of blinds and there will be a shorter stack somewhere who can't.

Passive play here pretty much guarantees you get in the money and Axs is not a good enough hand to go-in with for me in this particular situation.

Sheriff

[tim.daughters]

I think I agree that a fold is better. However, you misunderstood who was the limper. It was Sir Limps A Lot with 3500 chips. PGP2 folded. Therefore, if PGP1 wins (and would most likely have been all-in in the process), the chips would be:

PGP1: 3830
PGP2: 2535
Limps a lot: 1585
me: 1550

with PGP1 & 2 taking the blinds next. It's not so clear that I can coast into the money.

[Sheriff Fatman]

Sorry, my mistake.

Yes its not as clear cut as in my original response. However, assuming PGP2 wins and all subsequent blinds are abandoned, limps a lot will still (just) beat you to be all-in which is the logic I tend to apply. He will also be forced all-in for 2 consecutive hands before you are so his coin flip chances are pretty poor.

Therefore, unless you get a great hand, its not worth playing here.

I posted a similar problem called Another Bubble Dilemma yesterday where I applied similar logic but was forced to make a stand with a pretty good hand (TT). It ran into QQ.

In these circumstances I tend to try and stay out of it unless absolutely necessary. Relatively few players tend to adjust their game on the bubble so (particularly at Party) you can still get the big stacks taking a stand against each other and busting out. My philosophy here is to give them every chance I can to get them to do it.

Sheriff

[TylerD]

Play on PokerStars where you'll never be four handed with 500/1000 blinds! /images/graemlins/grin.gif