Euro SNG results....phew I'm tired.

[t_perkin]

1: HelmetSky (Ramat-Gan), $72.00 (40%)
2: t_perkin 2+2 (Akureyri), $54.00 (30%)
3: antbax (New England), $36.00 (20%)
4: ByronKincaid (Carshalton), $18.00 (10%)
5: slimciaobye (montreal),
6: ElmoFletch (Chicago),
7: Bingor (Aalborg),
8: Ruddiger (Sammamish),
9: CrisBrown (Wesley Chapel),
10: Tosh27o (Colchester),
11: The Native (Woodland Hills),
12: 10-2-4 (DALLAS),
13: Stone_Eyes (Bangor),
14: SimonDiamond (Redditch),
15: debaser (Buckingham),
16: bonabh (tipperary),
17: heyrocker (Chicago),
18: MobyDick (København),

It was a 2 HOUR epic. blinds at the start of heads up were 1500/3000.

Will post some hands later.

Congrats to Praying Mantis (HelmetSky) for moving into first place on the leader board.
So tempting to poke fun at William....but I will resist! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Tim

[AleoMagus]

This week, eligibility is required to be on the leaderboard so only those players who have been at both tourneys the past couple weeks are shown here

1 Helmetsky - 179 pts
2 t_perkin 2+2 - 106 pts
3 MobyDick - 102 pts
4 ByronKincaid - 78 pts
5 Heyrocker - 67 pts
6 Ruddiger - 35 pts
7 Stone_Eyes - 30 pts

Tonight or tomorrow I'll email the combined results to simon and he'll get them on the site

Remember, we have a lot of 2+2ers who have only played one, so come out next week and we'll get this leaderboard growing

Regards
Brad S

[Tosh]

Good game everyone. Didn't much like that AntBax fella. /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[PrayingMantis]

I feel like I ran a marathon or something. Was a great game, very dramatic, and I find these 2+2 SNGs are really good for my HU play. /images/graemlins/grin.gif It's 4th time I'm getting to HU (counting all the games I played), first time I win.

It's also a great honor to be the first on the Euro leaderboard, against such a tough opposition. Part of it is probably due to William, who took his chance with the flush draw against 2 allins (so they told me, it happened on the other table), and busted first. Heroic move, indeed. The bubble fight was tough enough withought having to deal with the king of the zoo, hanging around... /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Hope you'll survive longer next time, William, so we can meet head-to-head again!

Another nice thing is that all three 2+2 finalists succeded in moving over 2 randoms (I believe), who were the chip-leaders when we were 5 handed. Good job.

Edit: Correction. The two randoms leading when we were 5 handed, actually finished 3rd and 5th. Still a nice job, I think.

Well played everybody,

PrayingMantis

[t_perkin]

What do people think. I quite like it.

t_perkin 2+2 (4180 in chips)
ByronKincaid (2350 in chips)
slimciaobye (3590 in chips)
ElmoFletch (1815 in chips)
Ruddiger (350 in chips)
Bingor (1885 in chips)
antbax (10410 in chips)
HelmetSky (2420 in chips)

Blinds 100/200

I get JJ (how did you guess?) UTG.

I flat limp for 200
Elmo Limps
Ruddiger pushes
Helmetsky calls

I push.
I am pretty sure that if Helmet had me beat or AK then he would have pushed himself. AQ is the only possible coin flip, and he might not be willing to take it after my limp reraise allin.
Elmo could have a whole load of things, probably PP lower than me, which is just fine whatever he chooses to do.
Ruddiger - who knows, and no post flop risk.

all fold.

Ruddiger wins with A5s
with board: [8c 5c 4c 8s 5h]


------------------------
p.s: these were the next few hands for me:

Get AKo and push in
lose to QQ
down to T265

Get A9s and push in
win
up to T680

Get TJo and push in
all fold
up to T1155

Get TT and push in
get called by JQo and win
up to 2760

decide not to call in with 82o....

[byronkincaid]

I need new eyeballs. It was an all in fest straight from the off. Just as I'm trying to improve my post flop play /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Best game we've had so far?

[AleoMagus]

I stopped by to say hi about the time the final table started. I checked my email and did a few other things, then peeked back around the time the final 5 started.

Usually, just watching these sngs cannot really hold my full attention, but from the time the final 5 started until the finish, I watched the whole thing and thoroughly enjoyed it.

What a great bubble battle. All ins left and right. Tim, Byron, And Mantis all had stacks that ranged from thousands to hundreds and back again. Somehow, despite a ton of fearless all-ins, those three managed to whittle the big stack (a non 2+2er) down to a bubble finish.

Byron truly deserves credit for absolutely fearless play, but I have to say I really disagreed with a couple plays on his part

Once, when Mantis (I think) raised all-in with about t950. Byron folded the t600 BB. I can't think of a single foldable hand in this situation.

The other questionable play was an all-in raise with about t1100 with blinds of 400/800 plus antes. T_perkin was on his right and had a similar stack and was going to be anted into an all-in when the blinds hit him. Unless that hand was really strong, I would have waited for that to happen before going all-in again. I forget what you had there (remind me), but it held up thank goodness.

Then, there was the J5 from the SB (calling less than a BB) that you looked like you might fold when you busted slim out... If you had folded that, I would have cried.

Still, great play all and a great final battle from where I was sitting

I can't wait for tonight

Regards
Brad S

[t_perkin]

Ok this was probably my worst play of the tournament. But I want someone to tell me just how bad it was so I never do it again. /images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif
Oh yeah I would like to know what I should have done as well. Allin or fold? which?

Blinds 200/400
Seat 1: t_perkin 2+2 (1915 in chips)
Seat 2: ByronKincaid (3145 in chips)
Seat 3: slimciaobye (9765 in chips)
Seat 8: antbax (9855 in chips)
Seat 9: HelmetSky (2320 in chips)

I get AsQs on the button

Antbax min raises to 800.

Now I haven't been watching this guy too closely, but he certainly hasn't been throwing his weight around. I figure him either for a monster or low PP. I am pretty certain he would call an allin from me.

I flat call 800 /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/blush.gif

I figure on the flop to call here if an A or Q falls or two spades, otherwise fold. Plus I might move in if he checks.

flop misses me and he bets enough to put me all in.

I fold.


How should this have gone?

[t_perkin]

This was probably one of the hardest folds I have ever made:

Seat 1: t_perkin 2+2 (2525 in chips)
Seat 2: ByronKincaid (775 in chips)
Seat 3: slimciaobye (4615 in chips)
Seat 8: antbax (11275 in chips)
Seat 9: HelmetSky (7810 in chips)

Blinds 400/800 50 ante

I get As Kd in UTG+1

HelmetSky MIN RAISES to 1600

What the hell do I do here?

HelmetSky would surely call an all in from me. Kincaid would fold and I would bubble when his 22 held up.

I fold.

right or wrong?

thanks

Tim



(Needless to say Byron not only survived the Blinds, he turned his T700 into T2900 by the time the blinds are past him. DAMMIT!)

[heyrocker]

Jesus, thats tough, but I don't know if I could have done it, even though Helmutsky undoubtedly has a legitimate (or more) hand.

[PrayingMantis]

What a lay down! I had AJo. It was a great position for me, having the two short stacks at my left, right on the bubble. I knew a mini-raise can be very very scary for both of you, coming from me, and I didn't see any point in raising more there.

Very tough spot for you, considering how short-stacked is byron. That's why my position was so nice, I could do this move with mostly any two cards, knowing you might even fold monsters. And of course, I would have folded if one of the big stacks re-raised me behind.

Actually, this is a very similar situation, in some aspects, to the NL question David Sklansky posted few days ago in the poker-theory forum...

[Tosh]

I think people can take bubble play too far. I don't like the laydown. You're basically throwing out any chance of coming higher than 4th.

[t_perkin]

Erm I came 2nd...

He could easily be on a PP all the way up to AA, in which case I would be on a coin flip on the bubble when someone is likely to get rinsed out with the blinds in a few hands.

[Tosh]

You're automatically putting him on a pocket pair, thats what I don't like. It worked out this time but really most times you'll either limp into the money or miss it when the short stack doubles up.

Interesting to see what others say but in this situation I throw in all my chips and risk the embarrasing bubble exit.

[t_perkin]

Yeah when it got down to the final 5 the two non 2+2ers had just shy of 20,000 of the 27,000 chips. And we took the top two spots /images/graemlins/smile.gif woohoo

Tim

[William]

Congrats to Mantis! You are now the man to catch /images/graemlins/grin.gif

This must have been my shortest SNG ever /images/graemlins/crazy.gif but I think it was worth taking a chance. 4-flush and nuts if a T hits.
Oh well, that's the way it sometimes go.

Regarding Tim's 2 folds, I am quite sure I would have pushed both times. A fourth place is worth 18$ I think; not really an encitment to absolutely survive the buble.
But... what do I know, I lasted 30 seconds... /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

I look forward to tonights US event, and hope to see many of you and put up a better fight /images/graemlins/smile.gif

William /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[t_perkin]

But this was not about money it was about beating as many 2+2ers as possible! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I agree I think the AQs should have been a push.

Not sure about the AK...you and Tosh both seem to think it was a silly fold but I am not convinced...

What if PM had bet enough that I would be calling all in? would you fold then or still call?

Tim

[Tosh]

He doesn't really need to bet anymore. He knows that if you play you're putting your chips in anyway. He knows if a big stack plays back he backs off. Min raise is all he needs. I'd push expecting to be a coin flip at worst and normally a decent favourite.

[William]

What if PM had bet enough that I would be calling all in? would you fold then or still call?

Always difficult to give an answer to that question, it depends of course of the "feel" you have of the table.
My experience however, tells me that most of the time, these big raises are made with inferior hands (AT, AJ...) It takes some guts to call them, but that's part of poker, not allowing others to scare you away.

[byronkincaid]

Hi Brad

Yep I played a lot of hands badly last night including a horrible raise UTG with 55 but anyway the 3 you mention.

1 I'm typing something into the chat box, I look up to see Prayin all in and I've got 23o so I just automatically fold. Whoops.

2 I think I had 66 or 44, I don't see this as being too bad. I've probably got the best hand, that Anx guy was folding too much to all ins and I know this might be hard to believe but I was still trying to win the thing. I didn't want to go out 5th again but hey at least I'm consistent if I do right?

3 Yeah I knew I had to call but I was just sitting there thinking, man I've got J5o and 3 people have just folded leaving me to double this guy up. The question mark I typed in was more like, why didn't one of you lot call? One of you must have had a better hand than me. Anyway it worked out OK.

I set my alarm to wake me up 15 minutes before the US game but I can't even remember it going off. Just found it lying on the bed next to me this morning. Oh well maybe next time.

I think we're getting lurkers at these games who are pretending not to be. Thats fine of course but I think it would be better if they said yeah I lurk and I'm here to see how good I am against some good players (not myself of course) It would help us I think to know that these players are students of the game not just muppets who are just getting lucky (or unlucky maybe /images/graemlins/smile.gif)

[Sheriff Fatman]

William

One question regarding your all-in dilemma yesterday - how much was it influenced by the low buy-in?

In other words, would you do the same thing in a bigger money event or would you feel aggrieved to bust out early taking a chance if the money was more meaningful.

I ask as I faced a similar dilemma in a Stars $50+5 Pot-Limit MTT a couple of days ago where I was dealt QQ first hand in MP. UTG had opened (I think he limped in), my initial pot-size raise was then re-raised by the button and then re-raised all-in by UTG.

I agonised over what to do - the fear of AA and KK vs a chance to get into a commanding position (possible triple up) early on. $55 is not a huge amount but is a relatively big MTT buy-in for me and I would prefer to have more than 1 hand for my money. In the end I took a chance and called it and was happy to see two drawing hands (I think one was AJo, can't remember the other). QQ held up and I got off to a nice start! My memories of the exact hand are a little fuzzy now (hard to remember when your hands are over your eyes!) so I'll post the history when I get home to confirm the details.

As for my own short stint in the 2+2 event yesterday, I allowed a cold deck and an empty stomach to get the better of me. After a procession of absolute garbage where I managed to see 4 flops (2 limps with suited hands from SB and 2 free plays from BB) I finally get to hit the raise button for the first time with when fold round to me in Mid/Late Position. The button re-raises my T150 bet all in and I think before opting to fold.

Next hand I get dealt KK. I make the same T150 raise hoping that it will attract the same response but this time I get 3 callers including both blinds. Flop is a nightmare, AQQ and Cris puts in a weak looking bet from the BB. I already suspect she has the Queen from this suspicious-looking bet but have already decided that I'm either doubling up this hand or going-out to get some tea. I re-raise, Cris re-raises again to confirm my read and I dump all-in. Cris shows Q2s (from memory). The king doesn't come and I'm heading off to the kitchen in a matter of seconds.

This was very much a case of me allowing a cold-deck and small buy-in to cloud my better judgement. The read was obvious and ordinarily I'd look to get away from the hand. However, by then I'd seen enough crazy play (very untypical of these games) to say 'what the hell' and justified this with the consolation that at least I'd be able to eat /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

The real surprise was getting 4 callers which completely destroyed my plan to come over the top of an expected re-raise to my repeat bet. As it turned out, my weak initial raise proved to be my downfall (as Cris pointed out, the earlier callers gave her the odds to take a flop).

A shorter stay than I'd have liked and a bad start to the ranking points for me. Will remember to get some food in before the start next time!

Sheriff

[David BB]

[ QUOTE ]
This was probably one of the hardest folds I have ever made:

Seat 1: t_perkin 2+2 (2525 in chips)
Seat 2: ByronKincaid (775 in chips)
Seat 3: slimciaobye (4615 in chips)
Seat 8: antbax (11275 in chips)
Seat 9: HelmetSky (7810 in chips)

Blinds 400/800 50 ante

I get As Kd in UTG+1

HelmetSky MIN RAISES to 1600

What the hell do I do here?

HelmetSky would surely call an all in from me. Kincaid would fold and I would bubble when his 22 held up.

I fold.

right or wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you should have pushed. You're on the bubble and not severely short stacked and so not likely to be taking chances. Mantis knows this, and he knows you know. Thus he has to give you credit for having a great hand and might consider folding.

As for William's early bust. I didn't see the hand as I was at the other table but it looks like a bad call to me. It is a very interesting topic though.

I thought of a hypothetical situation the other day. Lets say its the first hand of a SNG on Party. You're in late position with KK and 3 people are all-in before you can act. Let's say you somehow know that none of them have AA. In fact you know that they have 33, 87s, and AKs. Should you call?

The question is: how big of a risk is it worth taking early in a SNG if you have the chance to triple up?

[Stoneii]

Would the FTOP not demand that you call. If they know your hand, they all muck.

stoneii

[David BB]

FTOP ?

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
think you should have pushed. You're on the bubble and not severely short stacked and so not likely to be taking chances. Mantis knows this, and he knows you know. Thus he has to give you credit for having a great hand and might consider folding.


[/ QUOTE ]

No way I'll consider folding, unless I positively *know* he holds specifically AA. I'm getting more than 6:1 on the pot here. I'm only around 3:1 dog to AK and AQ, 2.6:1 to KK or QQ, 2.3:1 to JJ, and a little worse than a coin flip to any lower pair. This is a definite call. That's why he's in a tough spot. I'm not saying Tim's fold was the best move, I think I push in his place, but he cannot count on me folding, in this situation.

[ QUOTE ]
I thought of a hypothetical situation the other day. Lets say its the first hand of a SNG on Party. You're in late position with KK and 3 people are all-in before you can act. Let's say you somehow know that none of them have AA. In fact you know that they have 33, 87s, and AKs. Should you call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Auto-call. This is not a tough spot, IMO. Even without knowing what they have, if it's a party low-limit, early rounds, I believe calling is the right move anyway. Most of the time you'll face AK, AK, QQ, things like that, smaller pairs and high aces that will "cancell" each other. Yes, you might face AA, but with the usual play, that's not a real concern. Quadrupling or busting, when you have good odds, is good start for an SNG.

[William]

One question regarding your all-in dilemma yesterday - how much was it influenced by the low buy-in?

You've got a good point here.
The buy-in was low, I had a good size of my stack already invested in the pot and should I bust out, I had the possibility to go and play some live poker (financially better than a 10$ SNG) so it's true that one says "what the hell" and takes a chance.
Had it been a bigger tournament, I certainly would have played the hand differently, and that means all the way from the first call. AQs out of position is not a hand I would normally raise pre-flop.

Regarding your bad luck against Cris, there is not much to say. She plays those garbage hands and argues that she has odds, we all know that. Nothing anybody can do about it. She is what I call a terrorist player, blows herself up eventually and takes down several other innocent players in the process.

Anyway, the low buy-ins and the fact that a new tourney starts in a short time is probably the explanation to the many suckouts in online poker. A bad excuse, to justify bad plays, like mine yesterday, I know, but definetely a factor that influences your decision.

Take care,
William /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Stoneii]

Fundamental Theorum of Poker from Sklansky's Theory of Poker book

[Sheriff Fatman]

[ QUOTE ]
She plays those garbage hands and argues that she has odds, we all know that. Nothing anybody can do about it. She is what I call a terrorist player, blows herself up eventually and takes down several other innocent players in the process.


[/ QUOTE ]

Nothing innocent about my post flop play. Like I said I could have got away from this hand if I'd not been in the mood I was.

Nice poker nickname though - Cris "The Terrorist" Brown. I've seen worse around!

[PrayingMantis]

I'm actually quite interested to hear Cris' thoughts regarding her busting-hand. I don't quite understand her play, and be glad if she could shed some light here.

We're 9 at the final table. Blinds 100/200. Big stack, 6452, apparently a random (First hands at this table with him, so I didn't have a read. Cris played with him from the beginning. Later on I realized he was far from being too loose, and surely not too aggressive), mini raises to 400 from UTG+1. Folded to Cris on the button (3558, 3rd stack), who raises to 1200. Folded to big-stack, who pushes. Cris Calls.

Big stack shows KK. Cris has 22 and busts.

For me, this is probably a PF immidiate muck, with this mini-raise from big stack in EP. Maybe, maybe, a call, if I'm really into trapping, although I'm not sure you have the implied odds, against this player. However, I'm positively sure that calling an all-in from big stack here with 22, is very very far from what I understand as optimal play.

Any thoughts, Cris or anybody?

[Stoneii]

Hi Sheriff

Just so you know, I was 1 of the preflop callers with PP - 66. Agreed as soon as Cris bet it looked deeply nasty but my fold check-box was already ticked before you came over the top.

Not a flop to let 66 do the shouting methinks /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Sheriff Fatman]

Holy crap my memory is bad! This is the hand I referred to earlier. Actually very different to my recollections of it and this was less than 48 hours ago.

Apologies for misleading anyone and for the hand history being copied - I just can't get the converter to work properly. It keeps missing things out (e.g. bet sizes)

Sheriff

PokerStars Game #360169016: Tournament #1281768, Hold'em Pot Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2004/03/29 - 15:00:00 (ET)
Table '1281768 8' Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: pokerpup (1500 in chips)
Seat 3: tiger19 (1500 in chips)
Seat 4: coolest (1500 in chips)
Seat 5: the WINNER (1500 in chips)
Seat 6: UNIKORN (1500 in chips)
Seat 7: debaser (1500 in chips)
Seat 8: Emoney (1500 in chips)
Seat 9: fabsoul (1500 in chips) is sitting out
tiger19: posts small blind 10
coolest: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to debaser [Qs Qc]
the WINNER: raises 50 to 70
UNIKORN: folds
debaser: raises 170 to 240
Emoney: folds
fabsoul: folds
pokerpup: folds
tiger19: folds
coolest: calls 220
the WINNER: raises 730 to 970
debaser: raises 530 to 1500 and is all-in
coolest: folds
the WINNER: calls 530 and is all-in
*** FLOP *** [Td 9h Ts]
DESTROYER1 is connected
*** TURN *** [Td 9h Ts] [4s]
*** RIVER *** [Td 9h Ts 4s] [4c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
the WINNER: shows [Ah Qh] (two pair, Tens and Fours)
debaser: shows [Qs Qc] (two pair, Queens and Tens)
debaser collected 3250 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3250 | Rake 0
Board [Td 9h Ts 4s 4c]
Seat 1: pokerpup (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: tiger19 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: coolest (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: the WINNER showed [Ah Qh] and lost with two pair, Tens and Fours
Seat 6: UNIKORN folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: debaser showed [Qs Qc] and won (3250) with two pair, Queens and Tens
Seat 8: Emoney folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: fabsoul folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[William]

Any thoughts, Cris or anybody?

-Dinner was ready and she was hungry? /images/graemlins/grin.gif
-Her favourite show on TV started? /images/graemlins/grin.gif
-Her partner came into the room with an offer she couldn't refuse? /images/graemlins/grin.gif
-She bought the wrong Pattern Map? /images/graemlins/grin.gif
-The fire alarm went on? /images/graemlins/grin.gif
-The computer suddenly found a mind of it's own and took over? /images/graemlins/grin.gif
-She was in the bathroom and the cat jumped on the keyboard? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Just some plausible ideas /images/graemlins/grin.gif

William /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Sheriff Fatman]

[ QUOTE ]
-Dinner was ready and she was hungry? /images/graemlins/grin.gif


[/ QUOTE ]

This one's not allowed as I've used a variation on it already in this thread, although I had to cook it myself (cue violins)

[David BB]

The fundamental theorem does not apply to tournaments in the same way it does to ring games.

In my example you have about 35% chance of winning if you call, and winning gives you 4x your chips back. Surely that would be +EV in a ring game (or a re-buy tournament).

In tournaments however, the chips you lose are worth more than the chips you win. For example: So far I end up in the money little over 50% of the time (I may or may not be able to keep this up on a long term, but I play with this as my goal). If I made this call every time I wouldn't be able to place in the money more than 35% of the time, and even if I win 4x my starting chips on the first hand I'm not guaranteed a place in the money. Thus I believe folding and watching two players get eliminated is higher EV than calling. Though lets say that this situation came up on the second hand of the tournament while on the first hand you had AA and doubled up - in that case I would make this call because there was no chance of going broke.

What this again illustrates is the need to play tight and stay out of trouble early in SNGs.

[Sheriff Fatman]

This has got me thinking - does anyone else hate getting a big hand at the start of a tournament?

To me, its just asking for trouble. You have no reads and, especially at Party, there's a good chance of ending up all-in pre-flop. If facing a call this gives you a horrible decision with anything but AA. Folding leaves you wondering whether you did the right thing, calling runs the risk of hitting AA and being told 'what else could it have been'. Regardless, you are likely to be facing a coin flip situation as the cards are turned.

I think Holden said in 'Big Deal' that he was praying for 72o on his first hand at the WSOP. Instead he got a good hand (something like AK) and ended up tangling (successfully as it turned out) with Stu Ungar.

I'm with Holden on this one - give me 72o first hand every time please!

Anyone disagree?

Sheriff

[heyrocker]

[ QUOTE ]
thought of a hypothetical situation the other day. Lets say its the first hand of a SNG on Party. You're in late position with KK and 3 people are all-in before you can act. Let's say you somehow know that none of them have AA. In fact you know that they have 33, 87s, and AKs. Should you call?

The question is: how big of a risk is it worth taking early in a SNG if you have the chance to triple up?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was all ready to say "Call Every Time" just like everyone else, until I saw this:

Holdem Hi: 1086008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Kc 391031 36.01 687438 63.30 7539 0.69 0.363
3d 3h 178704 16.46 904968 83.33 2336 0.22 0.165
8d 7d 244864 22.55 838808 77.24 2336 0.22 0.226
Ah Kh 263870 24.30 814599 75.01 7539 0.69 0.246

That changes things, for me anyways. Even AA is only a 49% chance to win against these three hands. I can't think of a single time in my past life when I would have folded in either of these situations but you're making me think. Thanks.

[William]

I don't think anything has changed.
I know you are always searching for an excuse to fold your aces /images/graemlins/grin.gif but I still think I must be having a nightmare when I read that someone would consider throwing his hand away in a situation like this. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

If it's Xmas, why say no to the presents? /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

William /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
I was all ready to say "Call Every Time" just like everyone else, until I saw this:

Holdem Hi: 1086008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Kc 391031 36.01 687438 63.30 7539 0.69 0.363
3d 3h 178704 16.46 904968 83.33 2336 0.22 0.165
8d 7d 244864 22.55 838808 77.24 2336 0.22 0.226
Ah Kh 263870 24.30 814599 75.01 7539 0.69 0.246

That changes things, for me anyways. Even AA is only a 49% chance to win against these three hands. I can't think of a single time in my past life when I would have folded in either of these situations but you're making me think. Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is EV of +364T. This is 45% your stack. And looking at it in another way: 0.36 of the time you end up with 3200 chips here, 40% of the chips in play. It does not mean you are sure for 1st place, but with a good play, I'd say you are a very big favorite for 1st. I'm pretty sure it's worth the 64% of you busting here, and registering for a new game.

Actually, Heyrocker, with the way you described your game in party, in the one of the threads about winning 11$ SNGs on party, you said you prefer busting early than late, to increase $/H, if I remember right. This strategy really favours huge +EV calls early, like this one here, IMO.

I would say it's an auto-call, with any strategy.

[Sheriff Fatman]

I'd be more inclined to call this in an SnG than I would in a bigger event as busting out 3 players and quadrupling your stack practically guarantees you a money finish, at the very least.

The Multi-Table for me is the tougher decision. A good outcome still leaves you with much to do to make the money so there's not as much upside to a successful call.

I'm talking here about the theoretical situation of knowing the opponents hands. In practice if facing this decision the actual hands wouln't be the factor for me, just the number of opponents. Once 3 players have called all-in you have to credit one of them with AA and fold here. Even without AA being out there you've now got 3 hands to get past with KK not one. I wouldn't fancy its chances as being over 50% against more than 2 hands in any event.

[David BB]

The actual hands don't really matter. The question is if its worth risking going broke 65% of the time to get 4x your chips in return on the first hand of a SNG.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
The actual hands don't really matter. The question is if its worth risking going broke 65% of the time to get 4x your chips in return on the first hand of a SNG.

[/ QUOTE ]

First, of course the hands matter. You are making your decisions according to what you believe other players have.

Second, the decision whether to call or fold is dependant on 3 main things: 1) what is your general ROI for this kind of game, 2) what will be your 1/2/3 places percentage, if you win this hand, and will have 40% of the chips in play. 3) what is more important to you: $/SNG or $/H.

I think that for any avarage player, this is a MUST call. This is obvious.

If you're a good player, and without getting into too much calculation, I believe that in order to give up this huge +EV spot, you have to believe that 1) you won't win enough 1st places even if you quadruple here [good player *should* win enough, IMO], and 2) that staying with 800, against 8 opponents, one of the with 3X your stack, will not diminish your expected ROI. This is, of course, debatable.

My view, is that as a *good player* you are much better having huge stack early, if you have a good shot at achieving it. That should really makes for the 65% of you busting in this spot. This is also very good if you take in calculation $/H.

I also think you have to remember that these games are about winning as much money, and not *placing in the money*. For example, you are much better with 35% in-the-money finishes, than with 60%, if your in-the-money finishes consist of mainly first placs, rather than 2nd's and 3rd's, in the second case.

Only my opinion here.

[t_perkin]

Yes I think if this was not a 2+2 event I would have been much more inclined to push in.

First of all you all think you can push me around now so I will make sure that I dispel that myth to maximum effect next week! (I tried in the US game later on but got it all wrong /images/graemlins/smile.gif )

I wasn't thinking about money at all. I was thinking about leaderboard points and more importantly beating as many 2+2ers as possible /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I think the size of the blinds was also an issue. The size of the stacks were all relatively small compared to the size of the blinds.
As such I figure the value of doubling up my stack to still only be in 3rd place stack size with 6.5 BB meant that I was still going to be playing an all in or fold game. The extra money was not really going to increase my chance of placing in 1st or 2nd that much. Maybe it would let me survive one extra coin flip later on but I was only gonna be 3rd in chips so probably not.

just some thoughts


Tim

[Tosh]

Swap positions with the short stack and I like the fold more, though I still wouldn't make it.

The blinds have to go through you before the short stack so after you fold off your hands here you're left with 50% of your stack and 1 lucky double for the short stack and you're in seriously bad shape.

[CrisBrown]

Hiya P.M.,

Actually, it was devastatingly simple. I realized I just wasn't in the mood to be playing poker yesterday. I don't know why. I'd signed up mostly for the socializing, but in just a few minutes I'd realized that the chit chat was all I'd really signed up for, and I could've done that for free just by observing. So basically it was a "screw it ... either I double up or I go do something else" decision.

Cris

[William]

it was a "screw it ... either I double up or I go do something else" decision.


I want to use the same excuse about my lousy 18th place yesterday! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

And if some of you get pushy with your questions, I'll take the 5th. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

William /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[CrisBrown]

Hi William,

[ QUOTE ]
Regarding your bad luck against Cris, there is not much to say. She plays those garbage hands and argues that she has odds, we all know that. Nothing anybody can do about it. She is what I call a terrorist player, blows herself up eventually and takes down several other innocent players in the process.

[/ QUOTE ]

As I recall, there was a 3xBB raise and four callers to me (in the BB), giving me 6:1 (plus implied odds) to peek at a flop. If it hits, cool. If it misses, it's cost me only 2xBB to peek. May as well peek.

As for blowing myself up, yeah, I did later (see my reply to P.M.), and in part for the same reason you did: it was a low buy-in, and because I also wasn't really in the mood to play, I figured "screw it ... either I double up or I go do something else." Like you, I'd definitely have mucked in a more expensive game.

As for taking innocent players with me, though ... are there really any innocent players at a poker table? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Cris

[David BB]

No the hands really don't matter /images/graemlins/smile.gif

What matters are the odds you're getting. Odds that may or may not include your reads on the other players' hands.

A similar example could be (this is probably similar to what william went out on): You have 8c 7c on the button and limp behind 4 other limpers. Flop is Ac Tc 6d. Two people go all-in the rest fold. Do you call with your flush/inside straight draw for the chance to triple up?

The availability of games online (ie. you can jump straight into a new SNG if you bust) is definately something that makes calling more acceptable - but in some cases you wont have another game waiting for you. For example if you're playing live or if you're trying to get points for the 2+2 leaderboard.

Even if you can jump right into a new game I'm not convinced calling is +EV. A good player at least should be able to find better spots to put his chips in. As I mentioned in an earlier thread, getting a lead early or busting out may earn you the same $/hour as someone playing very tight early on and making the money more often, but it will increase your variance if nothing else.

I'm not saying that folding is always correct in marginal situations like these. There are many factors, even metagame factors, that should affect your decision. I'm just saying its something to think about /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[William]

As for taking innocent players with me, though ... are there really any innocent players at a poker table?

You're right, they are all greedy SOBs showing up only to take advantage of poor tired, insomniac Europeans. The higher the casualties, the merrier /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Will /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
No the hands really don't matter

What matters are the odds you're getting. Odds that may or may not include your reads on the other players' hands.


[/ QUOTE ]

You cannot seperate odd from reads, or hands, for that matter. This is what poker is all about. For example, in the KK hand you talked about, my decision can be completely different, if I have even some sort of a read on the third all-in guy. If I know he's a moron, this is a much much better spot to call, than if I know he's even a half-decent player. Your odds exist *only* in relation to what other players's card might be. Of course, there are spots where you'll get sufficient odds to call, no matter what cards other people hold. This is if the pot is huge, and you're not risking too much. But this is not the hand in question (I'm talking about your KK scenario).

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not saying that folding is always correct in marginal situations like these. There are many factors, even metagame factors, that should affect your decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

I still insist that this is not a marginal situation. It would have been marginal if you held QQ. Again, I don't think there's a good enough player, who can afford to pass on such a +CEV chance (I'm talking party, low-limit, early). Of course there's a big risk, but more than enough EV to compensate for it.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just saying its something to think about .

[/ QUOTE ]

Thinking is always something good to do. And I'm happy to think about it, with you and others. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Kinli]

[ QUOTE ]
Any thoughts, Cris or anybody?

-Dinner was ready and she was hungry? /images/graemlins/grin.gif
-Her favourite show on TV started? /images/graemlins/grin.gif
-Her partner came into the room with an offer she couldn't refuse? /images/graemlins/grin.gif
-She bought the wrong Pattern Map? /images/graemlins/grin.gif
-The fire alarm went on? /images/graemlins/grin.gif
-The computer suddenly found a mind of it's own and took over? /images/graemlins/grin.gif
-She was in the bathroom and the cat jumped on the keyboard? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Just some plausible ideas /images/graemlins/grin.gif



[/ QUOTE ]
Actually, William, it was none of the above. Our Siberian Husky prefers to play all-in. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

Kinli

[Simon Diamond]

2+2 SNG Series Rankings (http://www.simongreig.com/sng/rankings.html)
2+2 SNG Series Archived Results (http://www.simongreig.com/sng/results/march2004.html)

Simon

[TylerD]

Good stuff as always Simon.

[PrayingMantis]

Thanks for the work you're putting into it, Simon. Looks really cool, and really builds the drama, like it should...

PrayingMantis (HelmetSky - Leader of the European SNG ranking!! And now it's official!)