Backdoor Draws

Here's one from this weekend that's been bugging me. I don't think I played it correctly. Let me know what y'all think.


6-12, L-P; it's been a good table, with lots of players staying in well past the point they should have folded. I'm in seat 7; the one player I'm concerned with (good player, fairly tricky and aggressive) is in seat 3.


Here's the hand: 2 limpers to me (seats 4 & 6, both loose), I limp in early/mid with Qc8c. (This isn't an automatic play, but I was randomizing on clubs (long story, but it involves some game theory) and I'll play a suited Queen occasionally if it looks like there'll be at least 5-way+ action.) CO limps, SB limps, BB (Seat 3) raises. All call. Six players, 11 SB. (I'm subtracting the rake.)


Flop comes 7s - 9h - Kc. Not great. Couple of backdoor draws for me. Though one of the higher backdoor flush cards is out. SB checks, BB bets, 4 & 6 call.


Here's where I think I made the mistake. I called. I'm getting 14-1 on a 16-1 backdoor flush draw, and I'm not too concerned with the Cutoff or SB raising (They're both rather passive). Yes, I also have a backdoor runner-runner str8 draw, but that only adds a bit of equity. If I catch another club on the turn, I'm wedded to paying to see the river. (If I don't catch a club or at least an open-ended str8 draw, I'm gone.)


CO calls and SB folds. 5 players, 8BB.


Turn is Jc. Okay, I've got my flush draw. I've also picked up a gutshot, with any T giving me a King-high Str8. (Though BB might have AQ). BB bets, #6 calls, I call, CO calls. 4 players, 12 BB. This is probably mistake #2. Would a raise have been more appropriate? Up to 12 outs (3-1) with 10BB already in the pot. I'd probably have chased out the Cutoff, but that's only a good thing at this point. The concern is the possibility of getting re-raised.


River is a complete brick. (Deuce or Trey of diamonds, if I recall correctly. As soon as I saw it wasn't a club or T, I was planning to fold.) BB bets, all fold.


My question (and this is a hole I'm looking to plug) is how far to go with a backdoor draw? How much additional equity does the backdoor str8 (using only 1 card from your hand) give you to call on the flop?


Comments would be very much appreciated.

Here's where I think I made the mistake. I called. I'm getting 14-1 on a 16-1 backdoor flush draw


You need to do a little studying on odds. The odds of making a backdoor flush draw are not 16:1, it's a much large 23:1. More importantly, in an essay in Poker, Gaming & Life, David Sklansky says you need 27:1 pot odds in order to make calling on the flop with nothing but a backdoor flush draw profitable.


However, you're call still looks good. Sklansky adds in that essay that if you have additional value to your hand such as a backdoor straight draw (or pair or maybe just an overcard), you can call with about 10:1 pot odds.

Dynasty,


Yep, I messed up the math on that one. 10/47 x 9/46 = 0.0416, which is almost exactly 1/24, or 23:1 pot odds. I don't know where the heck I pulled 16:1 from.... It's basically about the same as playing a two-outer.

It's close, and in those situations I lean towards a fold purely to keep the swings down.


lars

Didn't read the responses.


You are calculating your back-door draw incorrectly. Assuming it really IS "16:1" you do NOT compare it to the "14:1" pot odds to call. Its really about "14:1.4" = "10:1" since part of the time you call now you will need to call MORE on the turn; so the cost of calling is MORE than the single sb it appears to cost now (even presuming no one else will raise).


3-straight and 3-flushes are worth about 1 out each. If we figure your 6-card pair draw is worth about 1 out then you seem to have about 3 outs on the flop. Compared to the size of the pot its a pretty marginal call.


Raising the turn would be pretty hopeless unless you figured you MAY steal it OR the raise will let you win with a pair of Qs or 8s when flat calling would not. That's unlikely since it sure looks like BB has a pair of Qs beat right now, and if not someone else has a King. Calling seems like the best option here.


If we (incorrectly) presume you need your draw to win AND it will always win, then the 3:1 chance of hitting would be compared to whether you can get 3 calls for your raise, which clearly you cannot in this spot.


- Louie