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View Full Version : pot odds changing on turn and river


OUZO
03-28-2004, 04:22 PM
If pot odds on turn are say 7 to 1. You currently hold a gut shot straight draw which is about 5 to 1 for two cards or about 10 to 1 for one card. If you plan on seeing both cards should you call? If a blank now falls on the turn you are still getting about 7 to 1 odds, but you are a 10 to 1 underdog so is it proper to now fold? I am never sure whether to play this type of hand.

Nottom
03-28-2004, 04:54 PM
It is often correct to take one off on the flop and fold the turn unimproved with a gutshot.

OUZO
03-29-2004, 12:19 PM
Is it correct to take one off the flop even thought the pot odds are 7 to 1, but the odds of getting your gutshot is 10 to 1?

cold_cash
04-04-2004, 01:10 PM
I think it could be correct to take short odds from the pot if you think you can make up those bets on the river if you happen to hit your draw.

Slacker13
04-07-2004, 07:47 PM
I recalculate my odds if I miss on the turn. The only way I am staying for the river is if I am getting sufficient pot odds to do so.

HighRolla81
04-07-2004, 09:12 PM
To calculate the odds of getting this draw you need to consider the event before the turn and before river as independent events. So for an outside draw after seeing the flop, your odds would be 8/47, and after seeing the turn 8/46. So in your case, calling would only be optimal if you know you are getting more than 6 times your money. You also need to consider the pot odds though for calling on the turn and river, so if you know you will call both times you need to be getting over 10 times your money.

For the case of a gut shot straight draw, your odds are 4/47 or 4/46, depending on whether it is before the turn or river. In this case you shouldnt chase the draw unless you are getting better than 11 times your money. Hope this helps.

McCranky
04-08-2004, 07:32 AM
[ QUOTE ]
So for an outside draw after seeing the flop, your odds would be 8/47, and after seeing the turn 8/46.

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Remember that you will obviously have better odds before seeing the turn then after...
Your odds on the flop are 8/47 + 8/46 = for ~1/3, this is becuase on the flop their are two outcomes (getting your card on the turn or getting it on the river)...
Then after the turn you only have one outcome 8/46

Tsushima
04-09-2004, 02:29 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Is it correct to take one off the flop even thought the pot odds are 7 to 1, but the odds of getting your gutshot is 10 to 1?

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on Implied Odds. You need to calculate how many additional bets you will make if you make your straight and then add that amount to the current pot to determine your pot odds. However, you may need to discount your potential winnings a little in case the card that gives you a straight gives someone else a higher straight.

One other thing to consider if the board is two suited is that you may only have three outs to your inside straight because the out matching the two suits could give someone else a flush. This increases your odds of making a straight without a third suit hitting to 15-1 instead of 11-1.

Tsushima