Hand that Has Been Bugging Me...

This hand came up the other night and has stuck with me for some time. Figured I should bounce it off some better minds than mine...


Eight-handed 2/4 online game with a collection of loose and generally passive players. Only one or two players that seem to have a clue.


Oddly, it is folded to a MP player that opens for a raise. This guy plays every flop and while he doesn't raise often pre-flop, the couple times he has it has been with less than stellar holdings.


LP player calls - this is a given. Another any-"two-will-do" player. Folded to me in the SB with 9s9c. I call and the BB (somewhat loose player pre-flop but plays better and more aggressive post flop) calls as well.


Flop comes 8c3c2s. I check. MP bets like clockwork, LP calls, I check-raise. BB calls as do the other two. MP is probably chasing overcards and LP could have almost anything. Figure BB is on some kind of draw or he caught a pair on the flop. If he had anything stronger than a pair of 8s (limp with 9s or Ts) he would have bet out most times, especially against the loose MP player.


Turn is 5d. I bet out, BB calls, MP folds (wow!) and LP calls.


River is a Ks. I bet out, BB calls, and LP folds.


BB has AcKc and takes it down with his bigger pair.


I think there was a better way to play this hand but can't put my finger on it. I know there was no getting the BB out, but I'm wondering:


1) Was I a bonehead for getting involved in the first place?

2) Based on my opponents, was a re-raise worth it to drive out the BB (wouldn't have worked of course) or was I right that my position made that a bad move especially if it ended up getting 4-bet by the raiser?

3) I think that the check-raise was good play.

4) Should I have still bet the river? These guys might call if they had a pair of 8s, but the only thing else that would call would beat me so in hindsight I probably should have just checked and hoped one made a move at the pot thinking I had missed a flush draw.

I think you played the hand fine. Preflop, you must at least call the raise. An option would be to 3-bet but I don't believe you have enough hand to do this especially considering your poor position.


On the flop, your check-raise was an excellent play. You know the flop will get bet due to the presence of a preflop raiser and a check-raise will help eliminate players which is what you want since your overpair is very vulnerable to overcards. Of course, you bet the turn when a blank comes.


I would bet the river every time. Why does someone have to have a king? You will get calls many worse hands.


You played correctly on every street but just got sucked out.

you are definitely correct to play the hand. you're getting odds to hit your set and you know these players will pay you off.


your overpair on the flop is extremely vulnerable so the c/r is a good play even if you can only eliminate the BB (which failed anyways, but at least you're charging them)


betting the turn is automatic.


on the river i think you should check and call, surely you suspected AK when he only called your c/r on the flop.


your opponent was going to see the river no matter what with his holdings, but you charged him the max.


good post.


that was a sweet flop for the btf raiser, be glad he didn't 3bet the flop or raise you on the river.

on the river, facing two opponents, with one a btf raiser i think he should check when the K comes.


i think that if he bets and gets called he is almost certainly beat. no way btf raiser is going to call with A high with say AQ or any Abig. his call of the c/r on the flop is a signal he dosen't have a high pocket pair. so Abig is most likely, and he will not call without the K.


the only player that may call with a worse hand is LP who may have an 8 or other underpair (or maybe smaller flush draw), but the K surely scares him too so he can't overcall.


could be wrong, but i'm pretty sure i'd check in this situation.

disregard my above post.


i misread original post and thought he was facing the btf raiser on the river.

i need to learn how to read.


bet the river. Brier is absolutely right.

I would agree with Jim. It looks like the BB intended to call all the way to the river so you probably were not going to get him out.

the nut flush turned inside str8, 2 overcard draw saved ya some chips...

if i had this hand, i wouldve been pumping the flop, and the turn. he had 19 possible outs and the callers to pump. you couldve paid alot more than ya did. there's some silver lining for ya. /images/smile.gif


and no...your not getting the draw out no matter what. ya played the hand great, and just got caught. not the last time itll happen


b

Maybe it's a weakness in my game, but I would definitely check the river. I would figure that the hands that are weaker (small pocket pair, maybe A3) are less likely to call than hands that are stronger (K-x or high pocket pair). Am I missing something?

The first thing I thought when he turned over his hand was "whew" because I would have been jamming that hand from the get go. Even thought MP and LP are pretty poor players, BB played this hand worse than all of them IMHO.

[1) Was I a bonehead for getting involved in the first place?] 99 is a pretty strong hand except against the most timid of raisors in early position. Your hand is WORTH 3-betting but that doesn't mean you should. It sure looks like calling figuring to check the flop no matter what is a very reasonable way to play this hand.


[2) Based on my opponents, was a re-raise worth it to drive out the BB (wouldn't have worked of course) or was I right that my position made that a bad move especially if it ended up getting 4-bet by the raiser?]


Taking the initiative works against timid folk who respect your initiative or when you are in late position. Doing so against typical any-two-will-do types doesn't do any good since they are going to the river regardless and will show their hands down pretty much independant of what YOU do. There may be some benefit in getting BB to throw away his hand, but seeing how tenacious he got with his AK I'd say getting him to fold for two bets when he'd call one bet isn't going to happen often.


3) I think that the check-raise was good play.


Yes, unless you want to go out on a limb and check-raise the turn. This depends on whether MP is going to fire the turn if he retains the initiative on the flop.


4) Should I have still bet the river?


Loose players like to call, someone surely has an 8, and the random over-card is unlikely to have hit anybody. I think your main problem is that someone may have a 2, hehehe. Betting is no disaster. Betting makes more sense if you feel you don't know what to do if you check and they bet. Checking makes more sense if either folding or calling is automatic (for you and the situation) on the river.


I would often play this hand the same way.


- Louie

There's a guy named Jim Brier who recently wrote an article in Cardplayer, so there's a good chance it's you.


I have a question about some of the odds you you relied on. Most glaringly, in the answer to Hand No. 6, you state that "With 12 outs and two cards to come, you are almost even money to make a big hand." Earlier in the answer to Hand number 1 you state "With anywhere from 12 to 15 outs and two cards to come, you are a mathematical favorite to make a flush, as straight, or top pair by the river." Now I need to correct you and tell you that these statements are inaccurate.


First, the odds of making a flush with two cards to come is 1.86 to one. That's almost 2 to 1, not nearly even money.


Second, 15 cards out of 47 unseen cards is not a mathematical favorite. It's worse than three to one.


Your point in hand one is even more suspect, because there you don't consider the possibility that even if you make your hand, you could be beat.


If I am wrong, please point out my error.

Rich -


Jim is saying better than even money for a flush OR straight OR top pair. You already know that a flush (9 outs) is 1.86:1 (35%), so it shouldn't surprise you that with two cards to come a 12 outer is 45% and a 15 outer is 54.1%. (Check out the Small Stakes post titled "Should I Fold this Draw?" posted 4-6-02.)


I am not sure about the example you site, but from reading Jim's book, one of the main points of emphasis is that players generally do not do a good job of seeing when their outs are no good.


Jonny D

A guy will call with any eight and he might even call with any pair or even ace-high hoping you were on a busted flush draw.

Hi Rich!


Yes, it is the same Jim Brier. Let me clarify some things:


1. Your hand is As-5s and the flop is: 8s-6h-4s. You have 9 outs with any spade and 3 more outs with any seven that is not a spade so you have 12 outs WITH TWO CARDS TO COME. According to Page 309 of HPFAP-21st Century addition a 12-outer has a 45% chance of hitting by the river which is almost even money in my book. I never stated that a flush was even money but that the combined probability of both a flush OR the gutshot constitute almost even money.


2. On Hand #1, you hold Kc-Tc and the flop shows: Js-9c-3c. You have 9 flush outs plus 3 outs with any queen that is not a club plus 3 overcard outs with any king. From page 309 of HPFAP-21st Century Edition, a 15-outer has a 54% probability of hitting with TWO CARDS TO COME. Therefore, you are a mathematical favorite to make a flush OR a straight OR a top pair of kings by the river.


I believe you are confusing the odds with one card to come with those of two cards to come. The key in both these hands is that you will be going to the river almost all the time anyway.


I hope this clarifies things.


Jim Brier

"On the flop, your check-raise was an excellent play. You know the flop will get bet due to the presence of a preflop raiser and a check-raise will help eliminate players which is what you want since your overpair is very vulnerable to overcards."


I don't think this is necessarily true. As I read it there's one player (the BB) to the left of our hero and to the right of the raiser, and while the check raise might get HIM out it will only get the loosie out if the pre-flop raiser has 9's beat, as the raiser will three-bet and the loosie might then muck. This leaves you with one of two nasty decisions; either calling the three bet with what has to be the worst hand, or folding after investing two bets on the flop.


If there were more players in between the BB and the raiser than in between the SB and the raiser (going to the left when I say the BB and raiser ,and to the right when I say the SB and raiser) than I'd check-raise for sure, since now you've got a chance to eliminate more players by check raising than you do by lead betting. But with one player either way I'd just lead bet.


BTW, a lead bet here is definitely the right play if the pre-flop raiser will only raise with an overpair (or better) but will just call with overcards.

The action on this hand is (I think) unclear. Pre-flop it looks like four players, but on the flop it looks like five. If it's just four, then I think it's better to fly bet. If it's five, and there's someone in between the BB and the pre-flop raiser, then I like the check-raise.

Oops, I left out the 8. And I guess you're right, I've seen people call a fair amount with A-high, especially the good old "nut no pair".


It seems like a lot of money is won or lost in the long run with those close decisions, like whether to bet out on the river. Something I need to work on.

I think the AKc player was in a very good position, but you couldn't know this and you can't be afraid of the boogy man. Even if he misses his flush draw he knows that either an A or K will be on the board often enough to stay to the river. Big pairs win their fair share.


That being said, I think you played the hand well. The checkraise was good, chase out those draws, or at least make it expensive for them to hang around. I may have checked and called on the river, but either way there is a bb on the line. Well played imo.

"BB played this hand worse than all of them"

one could agrue that the big blind played rather resonably. he has a hand that he doesnt want to get heads up on the flop, with his nut flush draw and two over cards he has a lot of outs that can beat this field. he can safley check the flop because he is sure (as you are) that mp will bet out, when you checkraise him what could his play be but to call, re raising might get one of the loose players out, and he wants them in the hand making mistakes.


"Turn is 5d. I bet out, BB calls, MP folds (wow!) and LP calls."

he picks up the low inside draw on thr turn, and i dont think it improves his hand much as either loose player might have an ace, and you might very well have A8. a raise from him again could drive out mp or lp or both but a call keeps them in. if he has any respect for you he knows that you have at least a pair because there is no point in trying to bet out two of these players (as well as a solid one inbetween you and them).

really bb is letting the loose players call, hey its what they like best) and building a pot for himself when he hits one of his 9 (essentially) nut outs four str8 outs and six to pair wich might be good. i dont think i disagree with the way he played it at all.

just my thoughts

very good point about the overcalls. i went back and reread it closer. for some reason i thought the bet came from his left, not his right.


so i agree, it was better to let the players in after him rather than raise them out. musta buzzed thru the post too fast...need sleep...


good post...


b

I hadn't looked at it this way. I tend to get a bit "beat them over the head" in my thinking when I have a good situation. I also tend to analyze other's hands as if they knew what I had.


Thanks for the insight.

something bothered me about the BB play....


i agree with getting the overcalls on the flop, but i think he has an option on the turn to raise. the pot is getting bigger, he has a huge draw, SB may only have an overpair like QQ-TT. AA or KK would likely raise preflop...nows the time to try and cut the field. and improve chances of winning.


maybe someone flopped top/mid pair with an A kicker. why not try and get him out so if an A hits it may be good. a reraise to you with this draw wouldnt necessarily be a bad thing, as you have 13 outs.


in hindsight...since the LP called 1 bet on the turn, if you raise him out on the turn, the sb may call the raise, therefore making up the bet, so its a wash. but if they both fold, then youve semibluffed in a good spot.


another idea...


b

"maybe someone flopped top/mid pair with an A kicker"

i think that either of the two loose players will call two bets with their pair and ace kicker at this point because of the gut shot that was picked up on the turn, and FME loose players like gutshots, especially with a pair and a good sized pot. maybe it does get a Kx with one pair out, (helping his K outs) but i think that is a less likely holding. without the gutshot then i think the raise is definatly a good play, but with it the likely hood of them folding their ace pair is lower.

just my 20/20 view

tom c.

"The key in both these hands is that you will be going to the river almost all the time anyway."


How can you say this when you don't know what bet you will have to make at what pot on the turn if you haven't hit your flush or straight and who knows what has hit to help an opponent?


You HAVE to know the odds being given by the pot on the turn bet before you can know that you are going to the river when you are on a draw, no matter how good it looks, visually. (Unless, of course, the pot is so huge pre-flop, and you are last to act, that it doesn't matter what happens before you have to act on the turn.)

I am speaking in general. Normally, the pot odds will be there to call the turn bet and see the river when you either flop a flush draw or an open-end straight draw. This would not be true of other kinds of draws like middle pairs or bottom pairs or gutshot straight draws.