Aces cracked wins a rack....is this +EV?

[SossMan]

I would feel silly doing this, but I think it would work.
My local cardroom gives a rack of chips (up to $300) if you get pocket aces beat between 7am and 10am. I wonder if I could round up 10 people to sit at a table w/ me and play really fast and wait for aces to be cracked.

Here are some assumptions:
We get aces about one in 22 deals. (once every 221 hands, 10 handed)
Aces get beat about 2/3s of the time against a full table of random hands.
Nobody folds, of course.
The drop per hand is $3.
You win $300 when aces are cracked.

So, someone is dealt aces once every 22 hands. That costs 22*3 = $66 to be dealt those 22 hands. We will win $300 66% of the time, 300*66% = $198.
So, the EV of every 22 hands dealt is $198-$66=$132.
Split 10 ways, that's $13.20 per player per 22 hands.
There would be some sort of system to speed up play. For instance, everyone could limp if they don't have aces, and raise if they do have aces.
If everyone limps preflop, then the SB bets out on the flop and everyone folds.
If someone raises preflop (he has aces) everyone calls and checks down the flop, turn, river.

Either way, playing this fast, I'm sure we could get close to 50 hands per hour. So that's about 30 bucks an hour. Not too shabby.

Anyway, I'm sure I'm missing something here, but I think it's +EV.

[fluff]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, I'm sure I'm missing something here

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, for starters, the casino is going to suspect something is up when 10 people show up, and in every game all of them limp every hand, then fold at the flop for 1 bet from SB, unless someone rises, at which point everyone stays to the showdown even with crap. I'd be surprised if they don't figure this out in 3 AAs.

Also, the logistics of getting 9 other people to work with you, then at the end of the night splitting the money won/lost equally might be a pain.

Finally, you presumably want to tip the dealer, so you might want to add those costs.

[SossMan]

I wasn't really asking about the logistics of it. I wouldn't ever do it... I was asking more about the math.

[Gonzoman]

If you're going to work out some type of system before hand, why not just set up some kind of signal which lets everyone know whether someone has aces. If not, everyone folds, and I assume no rake is taken.

[Zonify]

To answer you question yes this is Postive EV, but no group of 10 players would evr do this unless they wanted to be caught.

[SossMan]

Get caught? What would be illegal about it? The house is still getting the rake. No harm, no foul, right?

[MicroBob]

not as plus +ev as you think.

almost all Aces-cracked promotions that i know of require the cracked-card to come on the river.
in other words, aces have to be leading at the turn and then lose to the river-card.

check with your local card-room....but i would bet these are the rules.

[SossMan]

I've never heard of that. Anyway...it's definitely not the case at my cardroom. Thanks, though.