KK - flopped set but troublesome river

[joker122]

Party 2/4 no reads. Hero has KK in LMP. One EP caller. I raise, CO 3 bets, Button cold calls, blinds and EP fold, I cap, both call.

Pot = 7.25 BB

Flop: K 7 2r
I bet, both call.

Pot = 8.75 BB
Turn: T (two diamonds now)
I bet, both call.

Pot = 12.75 BB
River: J (no flush)
I bet, CO raises, Button 3 bets.

Can I make this call?

[BIGRED]

Hmmmm... The only hand that can beat you is a straight, Q9 or AQ, most likely AQs. Based on how the betting went, I think there's a good chance that one of them has JJ, which you can beat. But how likely is AQs? How about TT that waited until the river to raise? Possible, but less likely than AQs.

I think the CO has JJ
Button either has AQs or TT... AQs more likely.

Based on this analysis, I think you have to call since it's somewhat possible that the river action is against a JJ and a TT.

[BigEndian]

[ QUOTE ]
Can I make this call?

[/ QUOTE ]

You have a typo, let me help you a little bit:

[ QUOTE ]
Can you make this fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would raise again.

- Jim

[spamuell]

I think the CO has JJ

This is great, I was trying to put CO on a hand the Hero could beat.

I think BB is more likely to have KJs than TT though.

Doesn't look good though.

[BIGRED]

[ QUOTE ]
I think BB is more likely to have KJs than TT though.

Doesn't look good though.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you can give the button credit for KJs, why not AQs. Although KJs give him a hand to call the flop bet, I don't think it's unlikely that he chased with AQs.

Also, if you think the button has KJ, then why does it not look good for Hero?

[spamuell]

If you can give the button credit for KJs, why not AQs.

This is the point. I can give him credit for AQs (or AQo), I was just trying to think of hands that joker can beat so I could find a reason to call here. But it doesn't look good because you're beat a large amount of the time.

[LetsRock]

Without reads, show me something better. If they're decent players, it's hard to beleive they'd hang around with AQ (or worse Q9), but I've seen much worse. AQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif sure looms ugly, but, like I said, show me.

JJ is real good bet for one of them (CO?), but with both players coming to life all of a sudden, it's hard to be real confident that your set is good.

Raising gets you nothing if you win - CO won't call unless you're beat so the bet you'd get from him to call button's 3-bet is the same you'll get from button's call of your cap.

Call it down. If it gets capped, start crying, but at least get a read for your money.

[BIGRED]

He is beat ONLY by AQ, but there are other hands that can induce such river action. I would call if I were him.

[spamuell]

He is beat ONLY by AQ

Thanks for this helpful pointer. I was under the impression that 2 pair beats a set.

My point is that TT is not very likely and in order for Hero's set to be good, you're going to have to put the CO on JJ and the button on KJs. Meaning that all four kings and all four jacks are out, which is a pretty unlikely scenario, which is why things are not looking good.

I didn't say I put the button on KJs. I was merely trying to envisage a situation where both the button and the CO had a worse hand than Hero.

I think I call here as well against unknowns, but I'm really not happy about it. If you call a 3-bet and it gets capped, can you find a fold? The idea seems ridiculous, but when are you ever going to ahead?

[sthief09]

98 beats him

[joker122]

I called the 3 bet and CO capped. I make the crying call.

CO shows A/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif
Button shows A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif /images/graemlins/crazy.gif
They split it.

Does anyone not call the cap?

I've been running bad for the past few days but this runner runner really got me down.

[joker122]

[BIGRED]

I wonder if it would have made any difference if you capped preflop, sending the message that you have a big pocket pair.