Betting Pattern

[shemp]

After I check raise the turn with TPTK or an overpair and then get my bet raised on the river, it seems 1 pair is almost, well, pretty much, never, good. Yet I usually pay off here. Thoughts? On the one hand, I'm sure I'm right to bet out in these situations, even with an always paying off strategy it shows a healthy profit -- but my profit is pretty darn nil whenever a second bet goes in, obviously eroding the first bet's value.

EG. 2 limpers. I raise from the SB with AA, BB and rest call.

Flop is Q 5 4 with two spades. I bet, BB raises, one cold caller, I call.

Turn is 9. I check. BB bets, other folds, I raise, he calls.

River is a 6 and the third spade. I bet. BB raises. I call. Seems to me I get shown a flush, two-pair or a straight everytime that second bet goes in. Yet I call. Has the call ever dragged the pot. Yeah. Though I can't tell you last.

I guess, my question is, are these routine folds or not? Mixed in with caution. Or not worth stewing over. You don't have to call a raise that is made knowing it will be called, but if you do fold, then it's no longer the case that the raise is made knowing it will be called...

And then there's the case where you get check-raised on the river after having raised the turn.

[risen]

I feel your pain shemp, I know it shouldn't matter, but what limits are you playing at? If you're playing where the players aren't too tricky, I wouldn't feel bad about just dropping an overpair on the river aainst someone you have a read on, but for one more bet on the river you don't have to have the best hand more than 1 time in 10 to make the call good.

[shemp]

Mostly online 15/30. Full and short. Some Party. Some elsewhere. I think river bluff raises are pretty rare. The aggression for the typical player is raising preflop with a very wide assortment of hands and blustering on the flop -- a significant minority will often pop the turn with position and a playable hand. As for river bluff raises, definitely not typical, but not unheard of either, though almost never at Party it seems. While top pair can get raised on the river, not after the turn action I've described.

[astroglide]

eerie parallels again. this has been my latest thing that i pay the most attention to, trying to figure out if i really EVER win when raised on the river. i think it's right to do it once or twice to the same guy, and then call after that (at least for that session).

[cwl]

there are a bunch of situations like this that i wish i could filter out of pokertracker to review. in this case to be able to filter hands in which i bet the river and am raised. this is not actually possible in pokertracker right? it would be great to be able to look at all hands that had a particular betting pattern.

[Charlie K]

Shemp:

Assuming you have no read and/or the river raiser is much better than you, this cries out for game theory approach.

Obviously, the pot size is an important factor; as is your image if you are early in the session or playing in a game with familiar people.

I am somewhat unsure of the application of these considerations - so evaluate the following carefully.

Say you consider the possibility of the raiser's hand to be inferior 1/10. You should choose 4 cards that are bricks (these would necessarily be babies that are not likely to improve any hand) that would signal a fold. This is tantamount to calling c90% of the time.

After you have demonstrated the capacity to fold the 1/10 would dramatically decrease to close to 0 (i.e., 1/1000) if you are playing with observant opponents; so don't do it anymore.

See HFAP for additional explanation.

[Charlie K]

Shemp:

I made a logical error above. The four cards that indicate a fold should be cards that are more likely to make the raiser's hand and not improve yours.