When can I make this Hold'em call?

[J.R.]

I posted this in the probability section, but I haven't gotten any bites. (maybe I'm impatient /images/graemlins/smile.gif). I edited this a little from my prior post as well.

The hand

Playing 10-20, I raise with KhKd, got called by the SB. 5 sb in the pot.

Flop was Tc 9s 8h. Check, I bet, SB calls. 7 sb

Turn Qd [Tc 9s 8h]. Check, I bet, SB check-raises.


The numbers to crunch

I am getting 6.5-1 to call here (the rake is 3 bucks, so its what, 6.333-1). I know SB has either 2 pair, a set or a J.

If he has a J, (he does not have JJ), I have 3 outs to most likely win the whole pot.

If he has 2 pair, my clean outs are 2 kings and 4 jacks. I also have 6 other outs to make Kings up, but if I make kings up I won't know whether my opponent is full or not. So I have 12 outs but don't know what they all are.

If he has a set I have 2 kings and 4 jacks as outs.

My dilemna

Just trying to figure out:

1) what percentage of time my opponent needs to have 2 pair to make a turn call correct assuming I call the river if I make two pair or a set and bet if I catch a J (assuming my opponent check-calls with a 5 straight on board)?

Thanks.

What I can figure out

I keep getting lost because of all of the possible outcomes, how/can I (no math genius) do this math?

If I catch a J, I bet and win 7.5, but I may have 3 or 4 jack outs. (This assumes my opponent check-calls the river, which may be optomistic.)

If I make a set, I win against 7.5 versus 2 pair and a set and lose 2 bets against a J, and have 2 outs here.

If I make Kings up, I win 7.5 against a worse 2 pair, and lose 2 bets against either a straight, full house or quads, and I have 6 outs here.

I lose 1 bet every time I call the turn and don't improve and fold the river.

How do I put this together

Not being able to do the math at the time and after being eaten alive in this and a bigger game, I was a little tilty and called, caught a K and paid off a river bet to be shown a J. I quess I am loking more for a feel for this spot, like do I need to be up against 2 pair 75% or better of the time? I feel like I should have layed down to the check-raise, but maybe I'm being hard on myself because I got clobbered.

[Alobar]

Don't forget when you do all that confusing math to factor in the % chance of him bluffing

[J.R.]

It was live, and this guy wasn't getting frisky. Easy read for 2 pair or better. Not sure if your response is tongue in cheek or not, but I knew what I could be up against.

I made the call in the heat of the moment, and have been trying to figure out if the call was right or not ever since. I think this is a legitamite question, and while it may not be amenable to a nice, easy solution, I think there is something to be gained by understanding how far behind I am against my opponents range of hands here.

[MaxPower]

I don't know, but maybe this isn't a bad time to check behind and call a bet on the river. There are not many free cards that can hurt you. Someone once told me that in these situations I should bet if I know what to do when raised and check if I don't. More and more I like that advice.

You didn't mention what position you were in. If you open raised from late position your opponent might be putting you on a weaker hand and you should be more prone to see the showdown.

[J.R.]

In retrospect I should have checked behind, as not too many cards hurt me and I hate a raise and I have outs if behind and a hand that doesn't mind getting show down. I originally bet with the intention of folding to a raise, then when he raised got to thinking (perhaps tilting) that he could have 2 pair and I had a boatload of outs, so my bet was wrong in the first place but it was too late and the pot odds were nice and I was stuck so I called.

But given my play, and my certainty of my opponent's holding, can I call the raise?

This guy wasn't pulling punches, he was THE weak-tight rock, an unimaginative player who bitches when he loses and thinks he is entitled to win because of his inflated view of his play, but who doesn't have the aggression or creativity to beat the game for much.

[LetsRock]

In my book, this really comes down to the playing the player. If you know for a fact that you need help, then you don't likely have the odds to call. At that moment, you're getting 6.5:1 (if I counted the bets correctly). If any K or J assures you the pot that gives you 5-6 outs. If J is a chop (he has KJ) you really can't count it as a clean out (now your're getting 3.25:1). If you can add the board pairing (your 2 pr beats his 2 pr) you can add 6 more outs, but you don't know which prs are good, so it's real hard to add those to the clean list.

Assuming you call him all the way down, the pot will have 9.5 BB so at this juncture, you're getting 9.5:2 implied odds (the turn call and river call) so if you don't improve, there's no way this is correct if you KNOW you need help. If you THINK you need help, it's a little closer. If you improve to the nuts and get another bet out of him it's 11.5:3 (turn call, river call, raise) but you could improve and still lose. You could do all kinds of mathematical gyrations (what's the chance that he holds cards that will beat you, what's the bluffing percentage etc) and still find that at best it's a close call (the numbers would likely tell you to fold right now unless he has a very high bluff%).

But - I know I'd have to see the river card - the hand is too strong to give up quite yet since it's possible to hit the nuts on the river, but this really comes down to playing the person. If he likes to make plays (bluffing, overplaying etc) then it's worth calling down; if he doesn't show anything but winners, then it's a little easier to lay it down. But even a near-rock could have just AQ and is making a play at the pot (even rocks take a stab once and a while) so I'm usually gonna see his hand odds be damned!.

[LetsRock]

At this point in the hand (the turn bet), I'm trying to take the pot right now. Too many times I've taken the free card and it turned out that my opponent needed it (and used it) not me. I think you have to bet this turn, especially against a rock.

[MaxPower]

JR,

Let's simplify this and pretend that you will call the raise and fold the river unless you improve to a staight or trips. When you improve you will win one more bet.

In the case where he has a set, you have 6 clean outs, so you will improve to the best hand 13% of the time and win at least one more bet. So:

(.13*7.5) + (.87*-1)= .1

Let's say he has two pair, but you will not call the river with two pair (just to simplify), your EV would be the same as above. Let's ignore the fact that he might have something like KQ.

In the case where he has a straight, you will improve to a straight or trips 6.5% of the time time, so:

(.065*7.5) + (.935*-1) = -.45

Edit: I made a mistake here it is actually 11% of the of the time, but you will lose with trips, so it is a little worse.

(.065*7.5) + (.045*-2) + (.89*-1) = -.49


So the question is, how often does he have each of these hands? I would think that if you think he has a straight as much as 1/3 of the time, calling the turn raise is probably a mistake. The pot needs to be bigger for you to call.

Of course, I simplified a bit here, but this is close to your best case scenario.

I just worked this out quickly, so please check my work and logic.

Interesting question.

[MaxPower]

So after all that it comes down to call down if the pot is huge, otherwise fold.

It this case fold.

Of course you are ignoring the possibility that he has AQ or KQ. But, you are assuming that the rock will not check-raise you with these hands.

[J.R.]

Thanks! Yeah, this is kinda how I feel, I have to bet and fold to a raise or check behind and call one bet on the river.

I dunno, I feel like thinking about this type of analysis (even though this situation is pretty cut and dry) is good, but either way I'll probably resort to call if the pot is big, fold if it is not in the future (unless I'm stuck and on tilt, but I'm working on that /images/graemlins/laugh.gif).

[LetsRock]

This is exactly the type of thing to ponder while away from the table. The more you've thought about it, the more prepared you'll be to consider all the options you have in this type of spot.