Can I fold this draw?

Typical good 4-8 game. I'm on the button w/ 7h,8h. Three callers to me, I call, SB completes, BB checks.


Flop- 10,J,6 (two hearts)


BB bets out, MP calls, I raise, BB re-raises, MP and I call.


Turn- Jd (10,J,6,J)


BB bets out MP raises. What do you do? Call? Raise? Fold? I called and BB calls. River comes no help(thank the poker gods) and BB checks, MP bets, I fold, BB calls and MP has a boat of J's full of 6's. I am curious to know of how anyone else would have played it. Flame away.

I would have joyfully capped the flop with this monsterous draw. Always pump your straigh flush draws hard in a multi-way pot. You've got a greater than 50% chance to make a straight or better by the river.


When the board pairs and its two bets to you on the turn, you probably should call although it's a tricky spot to be in. A fold is reasonable if it's 2-bet by somebody who won't play so aggressively without full-house.


You played the hand well.

You're getting a little over 4.5 to 1, but there's the possibility of further raising, neither of your draws are to the nuts, and there's a good chance you're drawing stone cold dead into a paired board. Yes, I think you can fold.

I think the call is a little loose. It looks like both players have a Jack, so you might have to call more raises on the turn. Plus JT, is a likely holding so you might be drawing dead and some hearts (K,Q,9) might not be good, as they can make opponents full house.


FWIW, in the heat of battle it can be tough to weigh all these factor and I probably call.

(i would suspect that the flop was Jh6hTo or SS would probably have mentioned the straight flush draw)


dynasty, i'm not sure you should tell us that you have a greater than 50% chance to make a straight or better by the river


not only is this incorrect but it could also be misleading


it's 35/12, or 2.92 to 1, to hit on the turn and 34/12, or 2.83 to 1, to hit on the river


admittedly, it would be 1.22 to 1 to hit on the turn and river COMBINED, before the turn is dealt, but you don't usually get those two cards dealt together for the cost of only the flop bet, and, as other posters have pointed out, not only may there be further betting, but, even on the occasions you do hit your straight or flush, you may well be beaten anyway


when you miss the straight or the flush on the turn obviously you definitely no longer have drawing odds of 1.22 to 1, whatever way you look at it; you have to reconsider betting at only a 2.83 to 1 chance of hitting your straight or flush, and now the unit bet size has doubled


by way of a convoluted example, to put the odds thing into perspective, with your thinking, if the pot was 122 and the bet to call was 100, your comment might be interpreted as saying this was a break-even bet (as you are getting 1.22 to 1 at this point)


this is just not true (unless you were all-in, of course) because you would not hit 74.5% of the time and would then have to pay for the river, needing odds of 2.83 to 1 to be able to even enter the pot


therefore, in my example, you could not call any river bet over 121 at this 222 pot (122 + 100 + 121 = 343; 343/121 = 2.83 to 1)


but let's say the opponent was a decent sort and only bet 121 so you could call


let's also say that your hit straight or flush does win, and, when you do hit, there is no further betting (this removes the more difficult calculations needed to bring in implied odds)


you only hit the straight or flush 26.1% of the time on the turn


so if you hit on the turn you take down a 222 pot, say, 25.5 times out of 100, = 5661 = 3111 profit


if you hit on the river you take down a 464 pot, 26.1% of the 74.5 times out of 100 that you reach the river = 19.44 x 464 = 9020 = 4723 profit


you lose the two bets, (100 + 121 = 221), the remaining 55.06 times, = 12168 loss


total loss = 12168 - 3111 - 4723 = 4334 in 100 hands, for this so-called break even bet, if you start off believing it's a 50% chance to make a straight or flush by the river and make the mistake of only looking for evens odds to enter the pot on the flop bet!!!


(CHECK CALCULATIONS, using proper odds : you need a 292 pot to call a 100 flop bet


wins 25.5% - take down 392, profit = 7446


wins 19.44 - take down 820, profit = 9836


loses 55.06 - (100 + 214 = 314) = 17288


total loss = 17288 - 7446 - 9836 = 6 = break even. QED.)

i would suspect that the flop was Jh6hTo or SS would probably have mentioned the straight flush draw


I should have wrote it as "straight & flush draw".


dynasty, i'm not sure you should tell us that you have a greater than 50% chance to make a straight or better by the river


This was a mistake since it's a gut-shot straight draw. Therefore, he will make a straight or better 48.1% of the time. If it were an open-ended straight draw, he would have the 54.1% chance I was thinking of.


However, my overall opinion is the same. With a 48.1% chance to make a straight or better by the river, you should be betting, raising, and capping on the flop in a multi-way pot. It's a huge money-making draw.

Its two bets to you on the Turn, the pot odds are about 5:1. You have the overlay on your 3:1 shot, but I think you should fold.


With the BB re-raising on the flop, and having the opportunity to make it 3 bets behind your turn call, fold the J-high flush draw with the board pairing and connected. There is a good chance it'll get two more back to you. Then, if you're like me, you go ahead and call that too!


Few things I've found in holdem are worse than getting whipsawed with a draw on the turn.


Jonny D

"I should have wrote it as "straight & flush draw"."


you wrote "I would have joyfully capped the flop with this monstrous draw. Always pump your straight flush draws hard in a multi-way pot."


sorry - i thought you thought he had a straight flush draw when you said that! my mistake! lol!


still can't see where the 48.1% comes from - i make it 45% from first principles - but maybe you don't think 3% means too much - lol!


however, in any case, you seem to have missed the point that it is only a 45% chance if you DEFINITELY take both cards, whatever the turn is - and most players would not make this committment on the flop, especially with such a weak straight or flush potential


but no big deal - i'm only responding because of your facetious title!


good luck


mike

I don't do that math for this stuff.


These % figures are on page 107 of Skalnsky's Hold'em Poker.


I think I would always see the river card. The only possibility of not seeing it is the scenario in this hand- the top board card pairs. That's when I get nervous.

You have twelve outs in this hand for a 45% chance to make a straight or better by the river.


I carelessly double-counted the 9h.

... to forgive is divine."


I forgive you.