AJs UTG

[Rico Suave]

Table playing tightish. I am unfamiliar with my opponent in this hand.


Party Poker 2/4 (9 handed)
Rico has J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif and is UTG

Rico raises, Button folds, SB folds, BB 3-bets, Rico calls

Flop(7 1/2 SB): 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

BB bets, Rico raises, BB calls

Turn(5 3/4 BB): 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif

BB bets, Rico raises, BB calls


River(9 3/4 BB): 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif

BB bets, Rico calls

Any input welcome:

--Rico

[Daggs911]

Looks fine to me.

I might have just called on the turn as well, but I'm a weak-tight b*tch.

[spamuell]

Not sure what this stop'n'go crap means, probably that he has a pair between 8s and Js or above Js, but we already consider he likely has most of these hands from the PF 3-bet, although he's probably be more likely to just call with TT and 99 if he's a typical opponent.

I put him on QQ-AA most likely, then TT or 99 (and I'm probably completely wrong, I hate stop and go). So on the river, you should call and not raise.

As for the turn, most opponents are probably going to at least call you down with any pair that he's likely to have, so this isn't much of a semi-bluff if you're behind. You're more likely to be behind than ahead if we stick with the idea that he has a pair, so I'd call the turn.

Also, if you just call the turn and hit your flush, you'll get an extra bet out of him on the river (unless he doesn't bet into you, and he doesn't seem to have a real pattern to his betting). But you do get to lose one less bet when you don't make a flush and are behind.

As you can probably tell from the tone of this post, I'm not really sure about this one.

[Rico Suave]

Hey Spamuell:

[ QUOTE ]
As you can probably tell from the tone of this post, I'm not really sure about this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I can tell. As I was reading it, I had to look again to check and see if it was really spamuell posting /images/graemlins/grin.gif --you are generally pretty confident and specific in your posts.

[ QUOTE ]
As for the turn, most opponents are probably going to at least call you down with any pair that he's likely to have, so this isn't much of a semi-bluff if you're behind

[/ QUOTE ]

The turn raise isn't so much of a semi bluff. I raised here expecting a free showdown if I didn't improve and picking up an extra bet when I hit my flush.

When my opponent bets into me, yet again, on the river, I think it is pretty obvious he can beat a J.....should I just fold here?

--Rico

[aces_full]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey Spamuell:

[ QUOTE ]
As you can probably tell from the tone of this post, I'm not really sure about this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I can tell. As I was reading it, I had to look again to check and see if it was really spamuell posting /images/graemlins/grin.gif --you are generally pretty confident and specific in your posts.

[ QUOTE ]
As for the turn, most opponents are probably going to at least call you down with any pair that he's likely to have, so this isn't much of a semi-bluff if you're behind

[/ QUOTE ]

The turn raise isn't so much of a semi bluff. I raised here expecting a free showdown if I didn't improve and picking up an extra bet when I hit my flush.

When my opponent bets into me, yet again, on the river, I think it is pretty obvious he can beat a J.....should I just fold here?

--Rico


[/ QUOTE ]

One small point-raising the turn to get a free showdown has absolutely no value, in fact it costs money. The reason you can often buy a "free" turn is because the bet doubles on the turn. You don't really get a free card, it's just half price since you threw in two small bets on the flop.

However since the turn and river bets are the same, you spent the same amount as if you just called the turn and the river. What's worse, if you fold to a bet on the river, you already paid the price, but don't get to see where you stand. If you call a bet on the end, you now lost an extra bet if your hand does not win.

As far as a call on the end when you miss your flush, it really depends on the size of the pot. If the pot is big and you fold the winning hand you made a much bigger mistake than if you called with the 2nd best hand for one more big bet.

You don't seem to be in that bad shape. From what I can tell, unless your opponent has an 8 or AA-JJ, you just might have the best hand. Is this opponent the type to play ANY pocket pair very fast? I have seen low limit players raise pairs like 77 pre-flop, and then play them fast on the flop even when there are overcards.

[aces_full]

I would have to assume he had AA-JJ. You mentioned the table was semi-tight. So I'm giving your opponent credit for being smarter than the average calling station. If he knows you are a good tight player, then he knows you have a good hand (big pocket pair AA-88, AK,AQ,AJ probably suited) since a good player will often know that he needs better than average hands to call pre-flop, and even better hands to raise from UTG. It would seem to me that his 3-bet indicates the strength of a big pair.

On the flop he leads out, this tells me that he can probably beat the board. He called your raise because he probably suspects that you don't have an 8. Wired 8's are a remote possibility in his mind, but most likely since you raised UTG, your hand is not one with an 8 in it. Still, if I were him, I'd be a bit leery. Paired flops scare me since in low limit games, people are pretty likely playing all sorts of random cards. Your raise however, reduced that chance. His calling rather than 3-betting was probably done just in case you did raise with something like A8s.

When he leads again on the turn this tells me that you are beat. He's clearly not scared of the board, and your flop raise didn't slow him down on the turn. If the turn was anything other than a spade,A, or J this would be a clear fold.

Since there was a good amount of action to this point, the pot odds you are getting almost force you to see the river, however I would have just called here and not raised. On the river he leads out again, telling me he's not afraid of jacks and doesn't believe you have an 8. This is probably a good place to fold unless the pot is huge( the odds the pot is giving you are better than the odds he's holding something higher than a pair of jacks).