A couple of NL strategy questions

[JPMcMoney]

Hello all,
A couple of questions for the NL veterans out there. I have been playing NL for the last 3 months and I can honestly say I don't think I will ever go back to limit again.

I keep track of all my stats and I currently play at the lowest NL levels at party poker, pokerstars and the cryptologic sites. My results are positive so far, but small. I am averaging about $4 per hour total, while playing 2 to 3 tables at a time. While I am happy I am making money, I know I am leaving some out there judging by other peoples reported numbers. Here are a couple of specific areas that seem to hurt my bottom line.

1) Betting too much on the flop with a good hand
It seems that when I make a set, top 2 pair or top pair with top kicker and there are draws out there, I generally bet around or above the pot total and 85% of the time everyone folds. While this is a win for me, it seems to be the bulk of my wins and these small pots don't always make up for my draws and big showdowns. I don't want to be giving drawing odds too often, but I also want to give the pot a chance to grow while I feel I am ahead. Any betting advice here?

2)When you are ahead with hands like I illustrated above and the draw that you feared hits on the river and someone bets into or raises you. How often do you pay to see it and how often do you fold? I know this question is too general and depends on bet amounts, pot size and what not, but what I am looking for here is if you have no real read on the opponent and the bet/raise is a significant but not overwhelming % of the pot (35-50%), how often do you call this with your top pair, 2 pair, 3 of a kind? I know if you never call it, people will notice and bluff at you more. But if I always or usually call what I pretty much already know, I know this hurts my bottom line. Anybody follow a guidline here?

Any input is greatly appreciated. I know these are pretty general questions, so specific answers and examples are ok, I'm just trying to illustrate the areas where I think I can shore up the bottom line.

Thanks
JP

[C M Burns]

1)bet more hands on the flop, if you can win 85% with nothing you should do well. you don't want people to stay in cheap unless u have a monster, otherwise most of the time if they improve they will beat you.

2) this can be tricky, I would say, assuming u have no read, in my experience (mainly 1/2 now) most of the time they have made the draw if they bet. I'd say call if less than 1/4 the pot fold is more than 1/2 in between is judgement. also if you checked to them on the river more likley call, if they bet into you more likley fold, and if they rr, very likley fold.

well thats my 2 cents

[ML4L]

Hey JP,

[ QUOTE ]
While I am happy I am making money, I know I am leaving some out there judging by other peoples reported numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]

Screw what other people say. Half of them are exaggerating/lying to begin with. And even if they aren't, they've probably played tens of thousands of hands of NL. As you are learning, DO NOT COMPARE YOUR WIN RATE TO OTHERS. This advice will undoubtedly help when you're faced with the inevitable big swings...

[ QUOTE ]
I generally bet around or above the pot total and 85% of the time everyone folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you mean by "above" the size of the pot? 125% of the pot is probably OK from time to time, depending on what you hold. Any more than that on the flop, as a general rule, is incorrect. But, at least you're not having the problem that many newbies have, which is slowplaying too many hands and/or betting too little on the flop, letting people (correctly) chase with gutshots, etc. Yeah, it's frustrating to flop the nuts and get no action. But it happens. And, if the table is so tight that many pots are won on the flop uncontested, try semi-bluffing more (but not TOO much).

[ QUOTE ]
what I am looking for here is if you have no real read on the opponent and the bet/raise is a significant but not overwhelming % of the pot (35-50%), how often do you call this with your top pair, 2 pair, 3 of a kind?

[/ QUOTE ]

You already know this, but this question is far too general to get an answer to. There are so many variables: how your opponent plays, how he thinks that you play, what holdings makes sense for him to have given the action, etc. Use that information to get a sense of how likely it is that he has the hand that he's representing and call or fold based on the odds that you're getting. If anyone gives you some sort of percentage guideline to follow in response to your question, ignore it and never read any of their posts again... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

The next step is to start posting specific hands about which you have questions. Good luck.

ML4L

[CrisBrown]

Hiya JP,

[ QUOTE ]
1) Betting too much on the flop with a good hand
It seems that when I make a set, top 2 pair or top pair with top kicker and there are draws out there, I generally bet around or above the pot total and 85% of the time everyone folds. While this is a win for me, it seems to be the bulk of my wins and these small pots don't always make up for my draws and big showdowns. I don't want to be giving drawing odds too often, but I also want to give the pot a chance to grow while I feel I am ahead. Any betting advice here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously, this depends on the texture of the board. A board like

8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif

is a lot more dangerous to AK than

8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif

because both a straight and a flush draw are possible. And, as a general rule, both of these boards are more dangerous for AK than

7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif

because you're more likely to run into two pair on a connected flop than on a one-gapper.

If I were first to act, I would probably bet the pot at the first flop, and probably about 2/3 of the pot at the second and third. The 2/3-pot bet gives my opponent 5:2 on the call, which is tempting but not quite enough to justify a call with a naked draw unless he thinks I'll pay him off when he hits his draw. I don't mind if he calls this; in fact, I'd like him to call it. If he hits, oh well; I'll muck my TPTK and he'll win this pot. But it was a mistake for him to call, and over the long run, those mistakes will be money in my bankroll.

Because the first two flops have a connector, I'm going to play them a bit more cautiously if someone plays back at me on the flop. A lot of people will come into raised pots on suited connectors -- especially from LP -- so I have to consider the possibility that he's hit two pair. This is a reading problem, based on my knowledge of this opponent and how the hand has been played so far.

On the last flop, I'm less worried about two pair. I might not call an all-in reraise, depending on the depth of the money, because it's always possible he's hit a set. But I am certainly calling a small reraise.

Obviously, if I'm last to act, the situation is better for me. If I was the last raiser pre-flop, and he bets at the flop, I'm going to make a pot-sized raise. But if he comes back over the top of me, I'm going to get off the hand, as more often than not my TPTK is not good. If he checks to me, I'll bet as described above. If he check-raises, I'm more likely to muck it on the 8-9-K flop than on the 7-9-K flop, but again that's a reading problem.

[ QUOTE ]
2)When you are ahead with hands like I illustrated above and the draw that you feared hits on the river and someone bets into or raises you. How often do you pay to see it and how often do you fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

This depends entirely on my read of the player. In general, if another /images/graemlins/heart.gif falls on the first flop, or a straight-completing card hits on any of them, I'm going to try to check it down. If he bets at me, then how much I'll call depends on what I know about him. Basically, what I'm asking myself is: "Does he want a call?" Is he trying to buy this pot, or sell it? That comes down to knowing -- or trying to know -- how this particular player buys or sells a pot.

Cris

[mauisupaman]

JP,
I'm no veteran, but to address question 1 in regards to 25NL party - you can never bet too much with a good hand on the flop in many of the games. I have to admit I do think there are a greater number of better players appearing on these limits, but the greater number of gamblers out numbers them.

Bottom line - next time you flop a set or whatever, bet big and strong and be amazed by both the hands that call you and the sucks outs that kill you.

[JPMcMoney]

Thank you all for your responses. I appreciate the input and examples. Going forward I will start throwing some of my specific hands out there for a more detailed crtique. Thanks again,
JP

[Krytemaster]

Just a quick guideline regarding question 2)...

It´s very possible you know this already, but a loose aggressive player will much more often try to bluff you out of the pot than a rock. If a rock bets into you can mostly fold without hesitation. So, try to keep an eye of all your opponents every time they play a hand (esp. the big pots) and see how they play and you will be able to make a better desicion next time they are in a pot with you.

Another thing is that a loose aggressive player will much more often raise with his fluch draws on the flop, especially if he has position on you - and a rock will probably almost never do it. By looking back in the hand (and to thnik about what this specific player would do with a certain hand) you might find some more information which will guide you towards the best decision.


Krytemaster

[mauisupaman]

Forgot to mention, in regards to the second question in which a draw gets there on the river - I'm sure you've already read it but just in case, the Chapters in Theory of Poker on Bluffing provides you with a good foundation for situations where a draw hits and you need to decide whether or not to call.

[tewall]

It's hard to believe that people are folding 85% to your pot bets. If that's true, there's a very simple solution: Bet a lot more hands on the flop (not just your strong hands). I'm guessing it just seems like people are folding that much. At any rate, it's very unlikely that this is where you're losing money. If anything, better more is likely to get you better results than betting less. (because the major mistake you're trying to profit on is loose calls).

I wrote a post regarding your second question from a mathematical standpoint. If you search on "bluffing strategies" in the last 3 months on this forum, you'll find it. (If I knew how to post a link, I'd do that)