Need advice on moving up.....

[IlliniRyRy]

I've been playing poker online for about 2 years now and have had some success at the low limit games (nothing above 3-6). I think the biggest drawdown I've ever had in my bankroll was about 170 BB or so, but at that point in my poker career, I still had a lot to improve on, and my game has since been corrected. Just recently, I started playing 3 to 4 simulataneous games of 3-6 and built my account up to $10K in about 3 months, and now I'm contemplating on whether or not I should move up to 5-10. The reason why I'm having such trouble making a decision here is because I'm actually a very risk averse person and the drawdowns bother me very much emotionally. The last 3 months, even with all the success, have been so psychologically tormenting that I'm taking a well-needed break from poker for the next couple weeks or so and figuring out exactly what I want to do. One option I'm giving myself is to sit down and make one last thousand playing 3-6, and then move up to 5-10 with it, sort of with the expectation that I could go through a 100BB downswing early and still have that cushion. I don't have any expenses at all, and I have a lot more money saved up than the 10K I made recently, but I just have so much trouble dealing with losses sometimes that I'm not sure I'll ever feel like I have an adequate bankroll. I know there are tons of people out there that have much more of a stomach for this than I do and are more willing to take bigger losses relative to their net worth, and I was just wondering if anyone has any suggestions on whether or not I should move up, not only from a money management perspective, but also if you have info on the differences between the 3-6 and 5-10 games on Party, I'd like to hear that too. Thanks.

[jasonHoldEm]

$10k is a huge bankroll...it's large enough to play 15/30. There's nothing wrong with some "insurance," but this is pretty extreme...could this extra money be put to better use somewhere else in your life? You probably only need like $3-4000 to play 5/10.

It sounds like you are so scared of losing money you're over compensating. Are you possibly playing at a level that is too high risk for you to be comfortable? Do you play poker for enjoyment only if so I'd consider dropping down to where the swings don't bother you as much. Moving up at this point might cause you to go further in the wrong direction and start playing "scared money" (if you're not already).

Just some things to consider.

Peace,
Jason

[MaxPower]

If you are talking about the 10 handed games, the 5-10 games are much tougher. They are usually pretty tight and aggressive.

Compute your hourly rate and standard deviation and use them to figure out your required bankroll for 3/6. I think anyone who is decent should be able to play 3/6 on a 2K bankroll with close to zero chance of ruin. Use the other 8K for something else. That is my suggestion.

[joker122]

The general consensus is the stakes level and the expected swings have an inverse relationship. That is to say, the higher the limit the less severe and less frequent the swings. So, moving up might actually save your stomache some of the torment you are currently bearing at the lower limits.

I play 2/4 exclusively so I don't know the nature of the 3/6 and 5/10 games. But this is just what I've learned from browsing this forum. Also, stake levels and win rate also have an inverse relationship. Therefore, you might see more profit by moving up but you will win less BB/100 hands or hour, so you'll have to prepare your psyche for that.

Again, this is just what they tell me. Good luck.

[sthief09]

Well online, 3/6 is generally pretty loose to pretty tight, but passive, and 5/10 tighter and more aggressive, so technically there will be bigger swings. Opponents' aggression and standard deviation are directly related. If you're playing weak-tight there will be less swings but you'll lose. If you're playing tight-aggressive, your style will clash with other aggressive players and there will be more of a swing.

[russki]

[Bob T.]

The general consensus is the stakes level and the expected swings have an inverse relationship. That is to say, the higher the limit the less severe and less frequent the swings.

I don't think that this is true at all. At higher limits, you are usually dealing with a winrate that is smaller when it is expressed in Big bets, and more aggressive and tricky games, that will increase your variance. The ratio of your win rate to variance will get smaller, and the amount of variance that you have to experience to get a certain amount of earnings will get bigger. If you have trouble handling the variance at one limit, I don't think playing higher is going to be the answer.

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.

[lil']

I stopped reading after you said something about 10k. Just do it.

If you can beat 3 $3-$6 games at once, you can beat a $5-$10 game. End of discussion. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Nate tha' Great]

One thing that might help is one-tabling (or two-tabling) for a bit when you move up to the higher limit ... will help you to really concentrate on change in game texture, build your confidence up, and at the same time hedge a little bit against a short-term downswing.

Can a person train himself to make himself numb to the swings? I don't know, but a successful midlimit player *has* to be able to do this. You're in an excellent spot with your bankroll and skill level right now to take on that part of your poker education. The one thing I can tell you is that the higher stakes games aren't nearly as scary once you get there. Treat the money you've made so far as a psychological as well as a financial cushion.

JUST DO IT!

Recommended reading: A. Alvarez' "The Biggest Game in Town".

[Solitare]

Having sat at $3/$6 tables with you on a number of occassions, you are clearly ready for $5/$10.

[IlliniRyRy]

You guys all make some good points, I was wondering about the inverse relationship between the limit and variance as well. I have a couple friends that play 15-30 regularly, and they've gone through many more swings in terms of bets than I ever have. I'm still trying to figure out the reason for that. The games do get tougher as you move up and the players are more aggressive, so I would imagine that getting outplayed in big pots becomes a huge factor. However, I can understand why someone might think the relationship is inverse because if the games are tighter and more aggressive as you move up, then you don't get caught on as much and you win smaller pots more often, as opposed to the lower limit games with huge pots where everyone calls and you just don't win as often. In the latter type, your variance might seem much greater. I like some of the things you guys had to say here, I think what I'll end up doing is playing 2 games of 3-6 and then trying out one 5-10 game, and then slowly phasing completely into it. That seems like the best move right now. I have one friend that I really envy for dealing with all the psychological torture and moving all the way up to 15-30, and I'd like to be where he's at within a couple years, even at the expense of being tormented a little more by having to deal with bigger short-term losses. There's always that tradeoff in poker, but it's one of those things you have to get past if you want to make more money.

[lil']

I was wondering about the inverse relationship between the limit and variance as well.

Man, I think your thinking too much. Just jump in. If you lose, you know you have a nice bankroll to fall back on, and you know you can rebuild from any losses you sustain.

Now go, and return with an exciting $5-$10 hand to post!!!

[JTrout]

IlliniRyRy,

I think we have similar attitudes towards losses. My online history is somewhat similar to yours.

As to your concerns about 5-10, a couple of suggestions:

Stop-loss limit. Decide how much (or little) you ARE willing to risk in finding out whether 5-10 is a more +EV for you. Then play. One of two things will happen:

1) you never look back. Changing limits is much about comfort levels. If you find you're comfortable with it, great.

2) you lose your limit, then re-evaluate.

What I guess you'll find is that you win, but at the app. same amount of $per hour that you were winning.

Play 5-10 (either 1 table or 2) for an hour. Play tight. Play aggressive. Keep a separate bank roll or record of your 5-10 play. Pokertracker does this nicely.
Wade in the water, don't jump head first.


Occasionally you should stretch your comfort levels. You are a winning player. Grow.

Cheers.
JTrout.

[sfer]

[novamob]

I think that when you start thinking of your winning and losing streaks in terms of Big Bets instead of $$$, that you are ready to move up. Provided, of course, that you have a substantial bankroll, which clearly you do.

If you find that you are still reluctant (and you seem to be a bit), stay at 3/6 and win some more that you can set aside as your 5/10 bank. If you have the attitude that this $$$ is for "experimental" puposes at 5/10, it may make it easier to deal with the swings. Good luck.

[sfer]

I'm a big believer that risk aversion can be a very serious issue when playing poker, especially as you move up to tougher games. The edges get smaller and you have to be willing to push them. But if normally sized losses in BB space start to bother you, and more importantly affect your game negatively, as the BB units increase at higher limits, well, why play if it's not going to be fun?

A good friend of mine wrote something years ago on RGP which is somewhat related and you might find interesting:
http://groups.google.com/groups?hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&selm=DALoE0.JGn%40midway.uchicago.edu&rnum=1

But the flip-side is, you never know until you try.

[bicyclekick]

I think you're definately ready for 5/10 in every way, except I really don't reccomend playing in the 5/10 party game. My situation is almost as close as it gets to yours...same timeframe, bankroll (i never wanted to talk about it, but i htink it gives me some credibility here for my point...)

The 3/6 party game is a cinch if you're a pretty good player. You obviously know this as you've been beating it well. Me too. I play 6/12 at the casino and 5/10 at other sites, but the 5/10 10 player party game simply isn't worth playing for ANY reason. I was thinking the same thing as you...I may as well move up to increase my earnings. It's WAYYYYYYY tighter then 3/6 and I can almost gaurentee you can make more playing 3/6 then 5/10, unless you want to learn short-handed.

Feel free to try for yourself. I'm curious to hear what you think, but I'd bet you'll not stay there. Add more tables to your 3/6. Play 5 or 6. Even if you're only winnin 1 bb/h that's 36 an hour. Not bad at all.

Just my 2 cents. Oh and check your pm.

[Levi King]

Bicyclekick, I don't agree with your assessment of Party $5/10. How many hours did you put in before making the determination that "the 5/10 10 player party game simply isn't worth playing for ANY reason?" I was destroying $3/6 and moved to $5/10 a few months ago. It took me 25 or so hours to get a feel for the game (read: my hourly rate wasn't where I wanted it) but after that learning period, my $5/10 hourly rate is more than double my $3/6 rate. My read is that $5/10 players are more aggressive, but that translates to more money for me when I play a good, tight game as prescribed in these forums.

IMO, If you've got $5k and your $3/6 rate is more than 1.2 BB/ hour/ table (playing multiple tables), move up to $5/10, take the hit as you learn the game, and then watch your bankroll fly.

That said, where do migrate to from $5/10? It seems there aren't very many people on party playing $10/20 full tables...

[ApolloQuiet]

Ry-

I'm in the same boat as you. I've been playing multible 3/6 games for about 4 months, and am beating them at about 3 2/3 BB/hr total. I've built up a bankroll that I am very comfortable with, for 3/6 and 5/10. But like others have suggested, I've only been playing 1 5/10 game for a few hours every day or so, to get my feet wet, and see what's out there. I'm hoping that as I get a feel for the higher level, I will feel more comfortable jumping in, and will hopefully be able to move up to 2-3 5/10's at once. It's all about baby steps.

[Jeffro]

Levi you bring up a good point. The Party 5-10 game is beatable, I moved up to this game on Jan. 1 and have not moved back. Don't have my database here at work but I've got about 140 hours at this game and am beating it for about 2.1 BB/hr (I was beating the 3/6 for about 3BB/hr mostly at Paradise with about 700 hrs), mostly single table but some double table. I have gotten a tad sick of the posts saying your better off play 4 3/6 tables playing robot poker then one 5/10 and learning to improve your game. I'm about 170 BB's away from moving up to the 10/20 and have the same concern about the limted game selection.

[IlliniRyRy]

Apollo, nice post, glad to see there are people out there that aren't touting 5-10 as too overly tight aggressive to be worthwhile compared to 3-6. I think that comes with the territory. I'm sure the games do have better players but if we're going to move up then we ultimately have to be able to beat the next level. And as good as the money is right now, I'm not going to sit around playing 3-6 for the rest of my life. See you at the tables, I think I've played with you before.

[ApolloQuiet]

Yeah, we've played a few times. You definately seem solid enough to move up. And if for some reason you run bad off the bat, at least you have the knowledge and confidence level to drop down to 3/6 and do well.