The Frog and The Bear

[ElSapo]

"Sometimes you get the bear. And sometimes, the bear gets you."

Party 2/4, and The Frog is armed with A /images/graemlins/spade.gifA /images/graemlins/club.gif. Not a bad weapon to go hunting bear with.

Somewhere in MP, The Bear open-raises. Folded to The Frog, and he three-bets. Everyone else folds, and it's like a scene from a movie with just The Bear and The Frog left.

Flop is 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

MP bets, I call.

Turn is a 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

He checks. This throws me off, but I bet. He check-raises. I frog it up and three-bet - he caps.

River blanks. He bets. Who got ate?

El Sapo

[Dov]

The bear eats. The frog had K /images/graemlins/diamond.gifK /images/graemlins/heart.gif

[MRBAA]

Whoever won, I don't play this hand the same as you. I'd raise the flop and cap if he 3-bets. After that, when another heart hits I'd either call if he still bet or bet and call a c/r if he checked. I wouldn't three bet the turn.

I would call the river, or check behind.

So I get in 1.5 more bb on the flop but 2 less on the turn (assuming he still c/rs) Or 3 less on the turn if he bets out.

I like my way better, because when I cap the flop I'm getting my money in with a better board for my hand. Once that third heart comes he could have a flush or draw to a heart ace or king (since he raised). If your aces up were good here, your opponent overplayed his hand with the four bet on the turn and bet on river.

[Mike Gallo]

Somewhere in MP, The Bear open-raises. Folded to The Frog, and he three-bets. Everyone else folds, and it's like a scene from a movie with just The Bear and The Frog left.

Very clever.

I call the river and I put him on QQ if I feel optimistic or AK hearts when I feel pesimistic.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
"Sometimes you get the bear. And sometimes, the bear gets you."

Party 2/4, and The Frog is armed with A /images/graemlins/spade.gifA /images/graemlins/club.gif. Not a bad weapon to go hunting bear with.

Somewhere in MP, The Bear open-raises. Folded to The Frog, and he three-bets. Everyone else folds, and it's like a scene from a movie with just The Bear and The Frog left.

Flop is 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

MP bets, I call.

Turn is a 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

He checks. This throws me off, but I bet. He check-raises. I frog it up and three-bet - he caps.

River blanks. He bets. Who got ate?

El Sapo

[/ QUOTE ]

Just calling on the flop is okay. I don't think there's going to be that much long term difference in EV between raising and calling there; the looser my table image is, the more inclined I am to raise since it enables a 3-bet (and either a cap on the flop or a stop-'n-go raise on the turn). Actually, I've convinced myself that raising is better, unless you think there's a chance that he'd fold.

I don't think you should be 3-betting his cap. I can see myself doing the same thing in the heat of the moment ... you have ACES! ... but he's got at least one heart and possibly two. A better play would be to call the check raise and then raise the river if he bets into you again and a heart doesn't fall, as I do think that you'll see a check-raise from Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif or K /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif here fairly often and that hand would pay off a river raise.

[sthief09]

If we think he would check-raise here with AA, KK, or QQ, A /images/graemlins/heart.gifK /images/graemlins/heart.gif, or maybe K /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/heart.gif (if he's the type to 3-bet here) then it's 13-2 that you've got him beat. If you think he'd 3-bet you with 55 (a lot of people do), then it's 13-8. If he'd only check-raise AA, KK, or QQ with hearts then it's 7-3 (or 7-8 if he'd 3-bet PF with 55).

Because of the chances that your opponent might 3-bet you, you generally want to be somewhere between 55% and 66% sure you're ahead. I think the turn 3-bet satisfies this, assuming he wouldn't 3-bet PF with 55.

[elindauer]

I think you're way far dead. Personally, I would usually not 3-bet the turn against your typical loose-passive 2/4 player. I don't think it's terrible that you did, as you've obviously under-represented your hand on the flop, but when he caps on a 3 flush paired board, I'm inclined to fold. You're almost always drawing to 2 outs. You know in advance you're going to have to call a river bet as well, I don't think the odds are there.

Obviously, there are specific players who will cap the flop with a hand you can beat, and you play them accordingly. With no information though, you're way behind.

[DonWaade]

[ QUOTE ]
The bear eats. The frog had K K

[/ QUOTE ]

If the bear eats, he could not have had that hand

[Bob T.]

I like the bear's chances here. But I still call the river if I am the frog.

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.

[sthief09]

To put things in perspective, the chances are exactly equal that Bear has A /images/graemlins/heart.gifA /images/graemlins/diamond.gif or A /images/graemlins/heart.gifK /images/graemlins/heart.gif, so saying he's "way far dead" isn't really fair. Putting someone on a specific suited hand is unbelievably risky, because there is only 1 possible combination of that hand.

I think the thing you're failing to recognize is that if his opponent would check-raise AhKh, AA, KK, or QQ, then mathematically you have to figure out the possible combinations. Just because the opponent would check-raise KK, but would REALLY check-raise AhKh, doesn't mean it's more likely he has the flush. The fact of the matter is he WOULD do the same thing either either hand, so you have to treat his hand as a probability function. There are 6 combinations of KK, etc. I did all this in my other post, and I don't think there's any other way of looking at this hand.

I'm rooting for bear to show A /images/graemlins/heart.gifA /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, just so we can see how close frog came to croaking.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
typical loose-passive 2/4 player

[/ QUOTE ]

you must be playing a different Party Poker, because the typical 2/4 player I play against is closer on the scale to "maniac" than "passive"

[ElSapo]

I felt like a complete chump after he showed me A /images/graemlins/heart.gifK /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Heads up I'll call the flop and raise the turn, but when he checked to me I suppose that should set off some alarm bells. Against a better known opponent I wonder if checking the turn is right...

ElSapo

[sthief09]

no way man. come on. don't let results affect your opinion of a hand you played well. as I've written twice in this thread, there is only ONE possible combination of AhKh. It's too rigid to put him on this hand.

[Mike Gallo]

Against a better known opponent I wonder if checking the turn is right...

I would check behind on the turn against a better known opponent. This could induce a bluff on the end or avoid a check raise on the turn.