Very quick flop question : 87s on the Button

[GuyOnTilt]

I've been slacking hardcore on my hours, so I sat and played some 15/30 online today for the first time in a week. The table was decent, but not great. Only one noticeable soft spots, and the rest were decent, but still kept the table definitely beatable.

We're 9-handed and UTG+1 open-limps, which means he has offsuit broadway cards, small/medium pair, suited connector, a suited ace, or weak suited broadways. MP fish limps, I limp with 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/club.gif, SB folds, BB checks. 4 to the flop for 4.6 SB's.

Flop comes: K /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

BB comes out betting, meaning a K or 9 or a draw for him. UTG raises, most likely a K, perhaps a draw. MP folds. I fold, yes?

GoT

[bobgreen]

Do ya have 8 outs or 6 or 3(Ten hits a gutshot)?

Piss-poor pot odds (and betting aint even closed), myriad redraws... Are you a thrillseeker? Well, are ya punk?

Harry

[SinCityGuy]

Easy muck here. You're drawing to a non-nut straight on a 2-flush board with aggressive action. Your call doesn't even close the action.

[Dynasty]

I call. I don't play suited connectors and then fold when I flop an open-ended straight draw.

[ QUOTE ]
Do ya have 8 outs or 6 or 3(Ten hits a gutshot)?

[/ QUOTE ]

As usual, posters are much too worried about their opponents having big hands which counterfeit your outs. 3 outs? Is that a joke?

[Eric P]

3 outs a joke? no... what if he has JQ of hearts? then he does only have 3 outs, and he has to call 2 bets on the flop, and there could be a 3 bet behind him. JQh is not that hard a hand to put the limper on, i think you give up very little folding here. I agree that i very rarely fold my outside draw, but it's not the nut draw and there is a lot of action, i dunno, it's not an auto fold but certainly not a bad one.

[turnipmonster]

sounds like everyone's been hitting the omaha a little hard this week. online I fold. live, I make it 3 bets just to put the fear of god (and hearts) into them. if someone caps it you know you'll win a big pot and put them on tilt if you suck out /images/graemlins/smile.gif. if no one caps maybe you get a free card on the turn. some "free" card, eh?

--turnipmonster

[GuyOnTilt]

Hey Dynasty,

Obviously I agree with you about the 3 outs comment, but I definitely can't give myself 8. Two of my outs are clubs, which gives a redraw to anyone holding a club, and the other 3 tens give anyone with a Q or J a gutshot redraw. So I guess what I'm asking is WHY are you calling the flop? I realize that open-ended straight draws are nice to flop, and that you usually don't think about folding them on the flop, but when the pot is small, it's 2 bets to me, and there are multiple redraws against me, why is calling here +EV?

Obviously I don't like limping with a suited connector and folding when I hit my open-ender, but I think flop play isn't as simple as "I have a good draw; I call." I know you do too, so I'm confused as to your response I guess. How is calling profitable?

GoT

EDIT: That was my most rambling response ever.

[Steve Giufre]

[risen]

Even if you're not going to call your all of your 10's counterfeited outs you have to throw away the 2 hearts, There is nothing advanced or correct about cold calling 2 on an open ended straight draw that is dominated, could be out drawn, and is definitely beat to hell right now. That is complete fish play, people calling 2 bets there is how we make our money. In fact if this post didn't come from GoT but instead by someone with 3 posts, I'm sure it would have been roundly mocked. The whole upside of playing small and medium suited connectors preflop is knowing how to lay them down postflop. You should be able to see past the open ended straight draw to see that calling this bet is giving you immediate 2:7.5 pot odds and the off chance it could be 2 more bets to you this round. You're only invested $15 in the hand, let it go.

[chesspain]

If you are so afraid of possible redraws, then why play mid-suited connectors at all (against which you will often be facing someone with a better str8 or flush redraw), especially when the pot is already thinned by the time the time the action gets to you preflop in LP, which means lower pot odds to try to continue with either of your potential draws after the flop?

[bicyclekick]

I'll disagree. I may even make it 3 bets to disguise my hand, cause I figure you're barely getting the worst of it right now and you may even get a free card on the turn. You don't even know these guys have hearts, don't freak out so quick. At least call, please.

[Thomsen]

GoT - I think the laydown was good. You have an openender but not the right odds, get rid of it. If you had a pair at the same time the odds would transform into a call...

A lot of the "income" from poker comes from our laydowns. Money not lost is just as good as money you win.

[Nate tha' Great]

You've likely got somewhere in the neighborhood of 20% equity if somebody has a four-flush, and a bit above 30% if they don't. So let's call it 25%. You're only losing a bit here in immediate equity with a call, and with some dead money in the pot, the Button, and the big betting rounds left to come, I think you have to play on. A lot of the advice in this thread is flat out weak-tight.

[risen]

Alot of the posters on this forum love to suggest reckless advice in game situations you would never on earth see them attempt in one of their sessions with their own money. There's nothing 'weak-tight' about throwing away a draw on the flop with no pot odds, There's nothing plausibly correct about 3 betting your 9th nut no pair, you think you're going to scare the two bettors in front of you who initiated the action and no doubt actually have a piece of the board? What are you representing on the three bet? bottom 2 pair? bottom set? Top pair with a flush redraw? What do you do when you get capped? Why are you guys insisting he throw chips into the pot willy nilly when he doesn't have the best of it. Folding does not connote weak-tight, Folding is often the most expert of expert plays when you actually have a hand, it's just basic poker when you don't.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Alot of the posters on this forum love to suggest reckless advice in game situations you would never on earth see them attempt in one of their sessions with their own money. There's nothing 'weak-tight' about throwing away a draw on the flop with no pot odds, There's nothing plausibly correct about 3 betting your 9th nut no pair, you think you're going to scare the two bettors in front of you who initiated the action and no doubt actually have a piece of the board? What are you representing on the three bet? bottom 2 pair? bottom set? Top pair with a flush redraw? What do you do when you get capped? Why are you guys insisting he throw chips into the pot willy nilly when he doesn't have the best of it. Folding does not connote weak-tight, Folding is often the most expert of expert plays when you actually have a hand, it's just basic poker when you don't.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd go fully in the opposite direction and say that a lot of people are scared of doing this that might appear to be "fishy" (e.g. cold calling, overcalling, etc.) or "bad poker" even when they're giving up money to do so. Calling here is CLEARLY +EV. Put the opponents on a range of possible hands and do the math. It isn't that close. It isn't that close even if it's capped.

[risen]

Well this is my best case scenario of possible holdings for my opponents
One of them has Top Pair no kicker and none of our outs
The other has the crappiest flush draw in history and none of our outs
And they both saw fit to bet/raise this flop, somehow

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=250897
pokenum -h 8c 7c - kd 4c - 2h 3h -- kh 9h 6s
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 6s Kh 9h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8c 7c 189 20.93 714 79.07 0 0.00 0.209
4c Kd 365 40.42 538 59.58 0 0.00 0.404
3h 2h 349 38.65 554 61.35 0 0.00 0.386

So when you're not getting 5 to 1 odds to call, why screw around? Don't get fancy for the sake of showing you read a book or that you're better than your opponents or that you're not weak-tight. Just fold.

[dansalmo]

You really should have folded this pre-flop. If you wait unitl you have at least two more callers pre flop, or are in a game with more passive flop play, then you would not have make this type of descision.

That being said, the fold was fine. No one could guarantee that is was large mistake to fold based on the information at hand.

[daryn]

raise this on the button preflop. then you'll have the odds to call here /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
We're 9-handed and UTG+1 open-limps, which means he has offsuit broadway cards, small/medium pair, suited connector, a suited ace, or weak suited broadways. MP fish limps, I limp with 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/club.gif, SB folds, BB checks. 4 to the flop for 4.6 SB's.

[/ QUOTE ]

with no high card strength and a drawing hand with only two limpers in front of you this used to be considered a pre flop fold (one more limper makes it a call). now almost everybody seems to think they can outplay everyone else postflop. someone has to be wrong.

that being said, calling btf is at most a small mistake.


[ QUOTE ]
Flop comes: K /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
BB comes out betting, meaning a K or 9 or a draw for him. UTG raises, most likely a K, perhaps a draw. MP folds. I fold, yes?

[/ QUOTE ]

close ones such as this is why you needed more callers btf. you are drawing to six clean outs but redraws can kill you (let's say a non heart ten comes on the turn, now a river jack or queen can easily destroy you in addition to the heart).

the math on this isn't easy since you have to factor in estimates of the redraw likelihood, the likelihood a flush draw is out against you and so on. the decision is probably close. next time avoid this problem by waiting for another caller before the flop.

~ rick

[Rick Nebiolo]

dynasty,

i agree that an estimate of three outs is a joke but with redraws and all and trying to balance implied odds (and reverse implied odds when he makes it and loses paying off) i'd say he has about five to six effective outs.

~ rick

[TimTimSalabim]

Sure, if you *know* one of them has a flush draw, then you should fold, but that's hardly the "best case". Most of the time, there will not be a flush draw out, these players are betting and raising with made hands. It's an easy call in my book. If you're going to be so paranoid about someone always having a bigger draw, then you would never play 87s in the first place.

[nykenny]

i would fold some of the times too, other times (slightly tilted) i will call with a very small % of 3 betting.

i like your play very much.

Kenny

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
Well this is my best case scenario of possible holdings for my opponents. One of them has Top Pair no kicker and none of our outs. The other has the crappiest flush draw in history and none of our outs

[/ QUOTE ]

This is part of your problem. You're working under the assumption that the opponents have big hands (top pair) or big draws (flush draw) against you. The relative strength of their hands against Hero's doesn't really change because you made it top pair/crap kicker and a 3-high flush draw.

Since when do 15-30 players need top pair or a flush draw to either bet or raise a flop, especially online? Wouldn't you expect the Big Blind to bet this flop with Ac6d? How about betting middle pair with 9s2s? And couldn't the EP raise with 77 trying to isolate the flush draw which Big Blind is "obviously" semi-bluffing with?

All these kinds of bets are being made in your middle limit games. If you are always assuming your opponents are betting and raising with big made hands and big draws when nobody has previously shown aggression, then you are going to be slapped around all game.

The times you are occassionally in a situation where you have counterfeited outs are going to be offset by the times you have more outs than you realize. When you're up against that A6o and 77, you've picked up an additional three outs to a pair of 8's.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
3 outs a joke? no... what if he has JQ of hearts? then he does only have 3 outs, and he has to call 2 bets on the flop, and there could be a 3 bet behind him. JQh is not that hard a hand to put the limper on.

[/ QUOTE ]

QhJh is a ridiculous hand to put either opponent on. Putting an opponent on such a monster draw with so little informatioon is terrible hand reading. It's about as bad as having AA on the button and putting an opponent on a set when a T,7,4 rainbow flop gets bet and raised ahead of you.

I'll repeat myself again. Studious players are far to quick to put their opponents on hands which either have them beat or are drawing very live against them. When the studious player is on draw, they'll put their opponents on hands which counterfeits their draw. They rarely seem to put their opponents on the very likely possibility that their opponents are either drawing dead, beat badly and drawing slim, or just barely ahead of you leaving you an excellent draw.

[risen]

That's a good point Dynasty, and though I'm sure the only answer to this is "it depends", how often are you willing to disregard all the actions of your opponents as nothing more than bluffs and start fantasizing about the holdings they could hold that you could actually beat by spiking an 8 instead of your straight outs. If you are going into every hand that you limp in with preflop determined that you have the best hand no matter what the flop or your opponents actions you are what we like to call 'a maniac' or 'a loose aggressive bastid' The hands I put them on are reasonable for the preflop and post flop action, if not highly conservative, But when just about everything you can put your opponents on is a much better holding than what you have and it's two bets to you, it seems foolish to start convincing yourself that everyone else on the table is betting garbage. Rick made an excellent point, everyone on 2+2 thinks they can limp with nothing and outplay the world post flop. It just so happens that all the trick plays in the book won't get someone off of a made hand.

Oh, back on point Also I'd like to note that our hero did actually lay down the hand. Bravo /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
Two of my outs are (hearts), which gives a redraw to anyone holding a (heart)

[/ QUOTE ]

Take comfort in know that if your opponent is holding a one-pair hand, the chance that they have a heart in the hand is rather low. If they bet/raised with top or middle pair, the chances they have a heart in their hand are below 25% (Read the board carefully!). So, you would have to make your straight with one of those hearts, they would have to have a heart in their hand, they would have to choose to call your bet/raise with that heart (are they doing it with the 2h and other small hearts?), then they have to hit another heart on the river. The odds of all that happening are very low.

[ QUOTE ]
the other 3 tens give anyone with a Q or J a gutshot redraw.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a good thing we've got no reason to believe someobody has a Queen or a Jack in their hand.

I find it very strange that posters in this thread don't want to play their very legitimate draw of and open-ended straight but are showing fear of opponents hitting a runner-runner draw. It's almost as if you think your opponents runner-runner draws are better than your normal draw.

[ QUOTE ]
So I guess what I'm asking is WHY are you calling the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

You've got good pot equity here. I'd say it's about 30%, especially against aggressive opponents who don't need top pair or a flush draw to bet. If you're up against rocks who only bet when they've got a big hand or big draw, you could make the fold. But, that should be rare.

With 2+ big bets already in the pot pre-flop, some of it now dead, I can't believe folding against typical mid-limit players would ever be right.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
with no high card strength and a drawing hand with only two limpers in front of you this used to be considered a pre flop fold

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no way you should be folding 87s on the button after two limpers. Wasn't there an entire thread recently about exactly this situation?

I have no doubt I player tighter than 90%+ of the posters here and almost always the tightest player at my table. And, I would NEVER fold 87s on the button after two limpers.

[ QUOTE ]
next time avoid this problem by waiting for another caller before the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

He can't wait for another caller. He can only play the hand under the current circumstances. This was the situation he was in and he made the righ call pre-flop.

[ QUOTE ]
i agree that an estimate of three outs is a joke but with redraws and all and trying to balance implied odds (and reverse implied odds when he makes it and loses paying off) i'd say he has about five to six effective outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is just paranoid thinking. Your going to have all 8 outs a majority of the time. Sometimes you'll have less. Occassionally, you have more. Thinking of this hand as anything less than a 7-out hand is scared, weak-tight, worried-about-monsters-under-the-bed poker.

[Gabe]

Why not look on the bright side? The less preflop callers, the less chance of a flush draw.

[Jezebel]

[ QUOTE ]
Your going to have all 8 outs a majority of the time. Sometimes you'll have less. Occassionally, you have more. Thinking of this hand as anything less than a 7-out hand is scared, weak-tight, worried-about-monsters-under-the-bed poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we consider this hand to have eight outs, then the pot needs to be laying us 5-1 for our call. We are currently getting about 7-2, so we would need to imply 1.5 BB in implied odds. We are also not closing the action which will hurt our odds a little more. Do you feel comfortable implying 1.5 BB, against two opponents, not closing the action, in a hand that will not hold up if made 100% of the time? If you do feel comfortable with 1.5BB, where is the cutoff where you decide that it is too long of a shot and fold? Thanks.

[GuyOnTilt]

Take comfort in know that if your opponent is holding a one-pair hand, the chance that they have a heart in the hand is rather low.

True.

It's a good thing we've got no reason to believe someobody has a Queen or a Jack in their hand.

Not true. Did you read my description of UTG's limping standards?

I find it very strange that posters in this thread don't want to play their very legitimate draw of and open-ended straight but are showing fear of opponents hitting a runner-runner draw. It's almost as if you think your opponents runner-runner draws are better than your normal draw.

Hmmm. Good point.

You've got good pot equity here. I'd say it's about 30%

I would guess it's SLIGHTLY lower than 30% against a decent range of hands, but you're right. The point is, I'm not losing a whole lot by ramming and jamming here if my equity is in fact 30% and the bets I'll make up on later streets as well as the 2.3 BB's in the pot PF make it alright to continue.

With 2+ big bets already in the pot pre-flop, some of it now dead, I can't believe folding against typical mid-limit players would ever be right.

Hey, that's what I said...

GoT

[GuyOnTilt]

Hey Rick,

Good advice. I think I'll take it! /images/graemlins/grin.gif I know I've loosened up PF in late position in the past month, perhaps a bit too loose, even though 87s is probably playable here. But in the past few weeks, I'd also limp in here with 75s too. Thanks for the post and your time.

GoT

[Saborion]

[ QUOTE ]
With 2+ big bets already in the pot pre-flop, some of it now dead, I can't believe folding against typical mid-limit players would ever be right.


[/ QUOTE ]

Some of it now dead? Meaning what?

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
Some of it now dead? Meaning what?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's just a way of saying that two of the five players who put money into the pot pre-flop have now folded. Half your competition has been eliminated.