Top two pairs on the flop

[kingstalker]

Pokerstars 10+1 rebuy Omaha pot limit High
I have 4300 in chips
I am dealt /images/graemlins/heart.gifA /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif5 on the button
Blinds 15/30
3 limpers, I limp
Flop is
/images/graemlins/club.gifA /images/graemlins/club.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ
EP checks,MP(5000) bets 135,LP folds I raise the pot back,EP folds,MP calls
Turn /images/graemlins/spade.gif2
MP bets the pot(1200) Earlier I had played a hand against this guy where he flopped the nut straight but played it the same way he plays this hand, he bet on the flop and then just called my re raise(he was out of postion) but then led out with a pot size bet on the turn, I was a bit worried he had trips so I just call.
River /images/graemlins/heart.gifK
He bets all in, I folded after thinking awhile, since I think that King weakend my hand even more,later on I saw this guy check top two pair on the flop (A-Q) for no apprent reason, was my fold correct here? I had A-J-8 so that had to make rather remote for him to have trips.

[chaos]

There are many possible hands for him to have besides trips. He could have top two pair plus. The plus could be a straight draw, a flush draw, or both. In that case you are playing to tie unless you catch an 8.

I wouldn't call on the river.

[Buzz]

Kingstalker - I think your opponent's bet on the river was either a bluff or a representation of two pairs. It's more than three times as likely (8892/2706) that your opponent had two pairs than trips.

A third possibility, IMHO, is that your opponent held some wrap around straight draw or partial wrap around straight draw, possibly combined with a flush draw, in which case he very well might have made a straight on the river. (If you consider the chances your opponent had either trips or a straight draw with more than eight outs, it's still more likely, that your opponent had two pairs - but not twice as likely).

Keep in mind that I'm only a free thinking student of the game and often take a different approach than the experts, but from your description of what occured and after calculating some probabilities, I think you should have called on the river.

However, I spent an hour thinking about this and doing probability calculations. You don't have the luxury of that amount of time under game conditions.

I caught a damned cold and don't want to go out and infect someone else - so I'm stuck here. Already read the papers, did the puzzles, putting off my exercise.... so you got my objective two cents worth.

Now I'll be interested to see what tack other posters take.

Buzz

[kingstalker]

The thing I started to realize about this guy was that he only bet hands if he had trips or better, in fact I got kncoked out midway through the second hour by this same player(I was a shortstack at this point) when I had ATxx and the flop came down AT4, I had top two and he had 3 of a kind(10-10) and I moved all in after he bet the pot on the flop.

[crockpot]

depending on who you are facing, i do or don't like this turn check. the argument for checking is that if a club rivers (or possibly if a straight card hits), you may be able to bet him off a hand that beats or ties yours since you are in position. raising is considerably better if he is on a draw or two pair. if you think you are up against trips you should probably fold even though you give up the chance to bluff him out at the river.

your hand doesn't look that good on the river, so i probably would have folded as well.

[Big Dave D]

You either pass or raise the turn. Calling pot sized bets in PLO on the turn not sure where you are, with few outs if you are wrong, is a sure fire losing strategy, even more so in tourneys.

gl

Dave