Running good...Uh no bad the 100BB downswing

[CardCuda]

Not a rant, just a post for the non-believers.

Last 2 sessions @ $1-2 full ring LHE i'm averaging about <font color="red"> -24.00/hr </font> Yikes!!!! /images/graemlins/mad.gif

No it's not bad play, bad beats maybe....but I won't rant...Don't worry be happy /images/graemlins/grin.gif

VP$IP = 18% @ 2 tables last 8 hours of play.

Flopped sets (BIG ONES AA,KK,QQ) that die to rivered straights and flushes are expensive! It just goes to show that you can run really good and hit your hands and your bankroll doesn't show it.... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Confidence check....therapy....fellow 2+2er's condolences?

Just a get well soon card will do.... /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[JudgeRW]

Hang in there Cuda, you know it will turn around.

[bisonbison]

I recently wrote this to another microlimits poster who was on a different 100BB downswing:

I had big variance. I was in the exact same spot as you.

I started at new year's and made about 300BB in a month and a half, but I didn't feel ready to move up to 1/2, so I played more .5/1 and lost 120BB in a week.

I felt I was playing the same and I felt the tables were the same, but now I was losing. Whatever weaknesses my game had (and has), it allowed me to get up to 300BB, and whatever strengths my game had (and has), it allowed me to drop 120BB in a snap. Some of it has to be the variance, and some of it has to be the weaknesses in our own games.

Unfortunately, we can't control the variance, and we can't even measure it with the kind of hand counts we're talking about. If you can average 2BB/100 at .5/1, you can build a 600BB bankroll in 30,000 hands. That's about 500 table-hours. Which is a lot, but not yet enough to be certain you're a winning player.

I don't have 30k hands. I have barely 15k hands between .5/1 and 1/2. I can't say for certain that I'm a winning player, but a 100BB losing streak is perfectly possible for a winning player. And its definitely possible for someone in the position you and I are in: capable of playing pretty well and capable of playing like an amateur.

When you're in the losing streak, it just feels like poker sucks and you're the dumbest person on the board. The only fruitful thing to do is to say: "[censored], dog, this sucks." and try to figure out if there's anything glaring about your play that you can fix. Me, I tightened up preflop to below 20% VP$IP, and I learned to play draws more aggressively. That's it. I can't say whether it made a gigantic difference, but I felt more engaged and on top of things and it got me more confident in my play, and then things turned around for me.

And remember, this 120BB loss happened to me a month ago. 1 month. 30 days. no time at all. Did I suddenly figure out poker? No. Do I even understand what the hell is going on half the time in a hand? No.

So don't sweat it. You'll realize what you need to work on, think about it some, haphazardly apply it, see it work once, feel good about it, forget it for a week, post a hand in which you abandoned all semblance of good play, and then it'll click, you'll do it automatically and it's on to the next thing.

Somewhere in there, you'll easily make back your 100BB.

[symphonic]

I just recently had a 100BB downswing last week, but since then I've went back up that 100BB, plus 100 More. You'll bounce back, don't worry /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[AviD]

I've been swinging like a monkey at Party 2/4, great deal of variance...alot of hands similar to your own.

I think that's just the lay of the land man, natural and inevitable swings at times. I'm still on a positive BB/hour increase, but some nights I'm up...some nights I'm down...some nights I lose what I won the night before, and most nights I'm just slightly ahead of where I started.

I certainly don't classify myself as a winning player yet as I don't feel I have enough experience, but I've slowly progressed through .5/1 to 1/2 and now onto 2/4...just trying to be patient now in 2/4 as the swings have increased dramatically.

Just be patient, as long as you stick to your game...you should wind up ahead over time. If you aren't, then your game needs revision! /images/graemlins/smile.gif Always analyzing the stats to find leaks in my own game...quite a few I must say! /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[Sam T.]

March has been a tough month for a lot of 2+2ers.

Last night I had a session that pretty much summed up my month (and yours), with a rather depressing twist. It wasn't so much that my great hands got rivered by chasers, or that every hand was 72o. This I'm used to. Last night I found myself playing draw after draw (I've never seen so many four flushes and OESDs!), and hit abosolutely nothing. Go to the river four or five times, and come up empty, and next thing you know you're down 20BB.

So, you're not alone, and if you stay disciplined things will turn around. At least that's what I keep telling myself. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[Zetack]

Well if you want commiseration I'm happy to commiserate with you.

About 2 weeks ago I moved from .25/.50 to .5/1.00. Went up 34 BB's and then had the huge 100 BB downswing. Although I didn't average -12 BB per hour during that time I did have a session where I was -10.25 BB per hour on the one table I was playing.

My worst session I had 261 hands and I won one (Count em ONE!!!) hand in a showdown. I also managed to win 6 pots without showdowns. I've never had a session like it and the 41 BB's I lost in it were a big part of my 100 BB slide.

Gee...ya know, telling big downswing stories is even more fun than telling bad beat stories.

In my case, though the pain of the big downswing was ameliorated by clearing a nice 100 BB bonus.

Now I'm grinding my way back up (and hopefully that griding sound isn't just the clicking of the roller coaster before I plunge back down again.


--Zetack

[Cipher]

When I find myself down 25 BB I start moving to lower limit tables. Hopefully the opponents are easier and the pain/BB lost is less. If I continue to lose I go to a low level SNG to minimize my downside risk and still play. There's a quote "when you find yourself in a hole, stop digging".

I seem to run in hot and cold streaks that last for a few days so when I start to improve I test the higher limits and keep going up.

I don't know if this has any logical or statistical basis or if it's just my good luck charm, but it seems to work for me.

Good Luck,
Cipher

[StellarWind]

When I'm doing poorly I take a break and study poker. That reduces my frustration and rebuilds my confidence. My basics are back in focus and I know I have something new I've added to my game.

If you play five hours and win 12 BB it's a good day, right? And don't you usually have a dozen pots bigger than 12 BB that turned on a major draw (yours or theirs) that made or failed? And you won some nice pots because you hit a set?

All I have to do is turn one of those big hands around and you have nothing to show for your day. Change several of them and your day is a mini-disaster. Also suppose instead of your average allocation of about five premium pairs (AA-JJ) in five hours you only got 2 premium pairs and one of them was crushed when an ace came on the river. I haven't described a lot of bad luck here, yet -100 BB is on the horizon with just these little changes.

That's variance. It doesn't take much to really screw you up in the short run. It doesn't mean anything about you as a player. If you are over your head you could lose an average of 2 BB/hour. So what does that have to do with explaining a short-term deficit of -12 BB/hour? That's right, almost nothing. Almost all of your losses are due to bad luck and that's all you know. It takes a much longer time frame to decide if you are a winning player or not. So stop trying to analyze it.

Get well soon.

[JDErickson]

We all feel for you. Hang in there.

February 2004 +4.52 BB/100 hands. + $1100 playing 2/4 and 3/6
March 2004 +.052 BB/100 + $157 playing 2/4 and 3/6

Last night I went up $200 at 3/6 at AP in 1 hour. Then proceeded to drop $400 in next 3 hours. Missed every flush draw and OESD. Had AKo 3 times in a row flop a K and lose to junk. 4 sets beat by rivered hands. KK beat by 67o when he hit perfect perfect RR 6's. KJs flopped a K and turned a K beat by RR flush.

Keep playing solid you will prevail.

Jim

[peacemaker]

I feel your pain. I'm down about 60BB in the last 5 days. Most of my loses are plain bud luck. Losing to hands I have dominated. Losing every coin flip the worst possible way, I flop TPTK at eh same time my oppenent flops a set. Going 0-12 wehen I flop 4 to the flush of OPSD.

At least it got better today I just had to spend 2+ hours folding almost every hand /images/graemlins/grin.gif I left todays session with only a .5 BB loss /images/graemlins/cool.gif

Hang in there it will turn around.

[sfer]

JD, you've been posting a lot of hands from Absolute recently. How do you find the games and the speed of the site? I'm thinking of doing so bonus whoring.

Thanks.

[JDErickson]

[ QUOTE ]
JD, you've been posting a lot of hands from Absolute recently. How do you find the games and the speed of the site? I'm thinking of doing so bonus whoring.

[/ QUOTE ]

If there is any site thats fishier than Party its Absolute Poker. 1/2 and 2/4 is absolutely insane. Be prepared for huge variance up and down.

1 Problem with AP is there not enough players. Lot sof times you will be playing short handed.

As far as the software goes its not bad. Kind of a pretty Stars layout.

Bonuses are easy to clear. Only takes 100 hands. But you have to leave original deposit in for 30 days to keep the bonus.

Jim