Pot Odds

[bosulli]

I have read everything available to me re: pot odds. The concept has got me out of pots and into pots that prior I would have not be in or out of. BUT, how much does pot odds effect your hand to hand play, and do you figure out the pots odds to a tee in every hand? I can't do it fast enough at the table to benefit me every hand.

? #2) What is the best source (book) to get up to speed on odds. I have taken stats in college (15 yrs ago), so I have a beginer's knowledge, but would like to take to the next level.

[LetsRock]

Most books have some type of chart that tells you the odds to draw depending on the number of outs you have. There's a couple of key numbers that I remember and work from there - the hardetst part is figuring out how much is in the pot.

This is a very simplistic look at pot odds:

4 outs (inside straight, 2 pr looking for boat): 10.5:1 - for purposes of on the spot calcing, 10:1 is close enough for me. It's rarely correct to chase this if you're behind.

8 or 9 outs (flush draw, open ended straight draw): about 4:1. It's often correct to chase this if you're behind.

These numbers are with one card to come. The odds a little better if there's 2 to come, but not a lot.

As I said, this is VERY simplistic, but it gives you a good starting point. If you can remember these two numbers, it's fairly easy to work from there: If you have more than 8 outs, it's OFTEN a pretty easy call (or raise!); if you have fewer, it's OFTEN a pretty easy fold. Of course this doesn't take other factors into consideration like implied odds or other factors like determining if your hand is good.

[PseudoPserious]

A college stats course is overkill /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Here's what I suggest, as a first approximation:

1) Count how many 'outs' your hand has. Make sure to count only the outs that will give you a likely winning hand.

2) Know how much of an underdog you are based on the number of outs. There are a few numbers that come up quite often, so memorize those. You'll be able to approximate others that you need on the fly. This will tell you that you're an x:1 underdog.

3) Know how many bets are in the pot (y). You can count them as they're put in -- as the action progresses, increment your count.

4) If there are more bets in the pot than you are an underdog (if y > x), you have the pot odds to continue.


As LetsRock said, there are books with charts that convert 'outs' to 'odds'.

If you want to figure it out yourself, here's how:

There are 52 cards in the deck. You've seen 2 of them in your hand and either 3 or 4 of them on the board. That leaves either 46 or 47 unknown cards. Call this U.

You have G good cards that can help you (your 'outs'). That leaves U-G = B bad cards that won't help you.

The odds of hitting your hand are B/G:1.

For example, say you have a 4-flush on the turn. There are 46 unseen cards left. 9 of them make your hand. 37 of them don't make your hand. You are a (37/9):1 underdog, which is 4.1:1. If there are 4 or more bets in the pot, you have a clear call.

Just do this for a few of the more common number of outs and you'll be set. Simple, neh?

PP

[bosulli]

Excellent posts. Thanks. I have memorized a few key odds from the "outs" charts and I thought I was doing the pot odds close enough, but could not do the math in my head at a table as some of the "probabilty" posts calculate out. I needed to know I was on the right path or needed to dig up my old Stats book and study up. I am going to continue to look for pot odds example and get better. I believe if I understand the pot odds better than the next guy, I will win in the long run.

[LetsRock]

I think you want to stay away from complicated calc while at the table - the more you can make things simple for yourself the better. This means a bit more preparation when you're not playing.

The thing that drives me nuts about using pot odds is that it seems that(and I know this has to be some kind of evil trick I play on myself) when ever I make the correct decision (chasing with the outs), I never hit my target; whenever I fold correctly, my hand would have hit. Makes me crazy /images/graemlins/crazy.gif (but I don't succumb to the temptation to ignore the odds. /images/graemlins/wink.gif)

[Big Country]

One thing I remember reading, is for a quick estimate, figure you have a 2% chance of hitting for each out you have times the cards to come. Rough estimate of course, but based on the fact that 1 card of 50 is 2%.

So, if you have 5 outs after the turn, that is about an 10% chance to hit, so pot odds need to be 10:1, so you need the pot to have 10 times the bet. 5 outs after the flop is a 20% chance to hit (10% * 2), so pot odds need to be 5:1, so you would need the pot to have 5 times the amount of the bet.

Anyone else seen or used a method like this. I have found it very useful for making quick calculations at the table or online.

[afk]

A couple of other things to keep in mind as well:
These odds are assuming that you WILL win if you hit your hand. If you're not sure of that, you might want to be getting slightly better odds, for example if you were drawing to something like a 10 high flush.

Also, they don't really apply when you think you have the best hand. I think a lot of players forget this in situations where you've flopped second pair with a good kicker or something - There are definetly situations where this will be the best hand at the moment and you need to play it like it is. I've been guilty of folding in situations like these because the 'pot odds' didn't justify seeing the next card.

Good luck at the tables!

[PseudoPserious]

Not to nit-pick, but...

10% isn't 10:1. 90% miss : 10% hit = 9:1.

Likewise, 20% is 4:1, not 5:1.

Actually, I guess I am nit-picking. Nevermind that first sentence.

PP

[PseudoPserious]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you want to stay away from complicated calc while at the table - the more you can make things simple for yourself the better. This means a bit more preparation when you're not playing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I heartily agree. Do the division and memorization someplace quiet when you aren't playing, review the numbers right before you play, and then at the table all you have to do count the bets as they go in. That lets you focus on all of the other important things going on at the table.

PP